TIGHT END DYNASTY/KEEPER RANKINGS
1. T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
Hockenson is a prospect that wasn’t on the radar until his final season. Throughout his second year (redshirted his first season) at Iowa, teammate TE Noah Fant stole the show and provided most of the highlights at the TE position. As the 2018 season went along, more draft evaluators got to get a good lock at Hockenson as a prospect, both as a receiver and blocker, and the hype train took off at full speed. Even so, the idea Hockenson could be drafted higher than Fant wasn’t really viable until the combine. Fant ended up posting high-end athletic testing, and that leads to where things stand now. The Detroit Lions were in desperate need of a TE, and playmakers in general. Eighth overall for TE is high, but based on what Hockenson can bring in both blocking and playmaking fills a lot of needs. Hockenson produced in a significant way in 2018, accumulating 49 receptions, 760 receiving yards and six touchdowns on a passing offense that, quite frankly, stunk. TE production, in general, is wonky, but it’s really, really nice to see a big production season on a resume. Hockenson checks all the boxes, and at the very least, is entertaining to watch.
In terms of rookie drafts, Hockenson is pretty stable as a selection in the 1.05-to-1.08 range. There are times he can drop to 1.09-1.10 in Superflex (SF), but overall that’s rare. TEs take a while to develop, and some are turned off by the idea of a slow burn, but don’t let that be the reason to fade quality TE prospects. There’s essentially zero competition for snaps in Detroit at TE, and there’s painfully low quality receiving weapons behind WR Kenny Golladay. TE premium cuts his variance down quite a bit, and it’s very unlikely he makes it out of the top six selections. TE prospects don’t come along like this every year.
PSA: TE is MUCH different than the other fantasy positions to evaluate. College offenses do not usually put an emphasis on getting TEs the ball in the passing game, and rely much more on them to block. This creates a lot of scenarios where receiving skills are evaluated on a much smaller sample. The reality is TEs do not produce as many fantasy relevant weeks as the other positions in general, and relying on draft position (top three round players) is very important tactically.
2. Noah Fant, DENVER BRONCOS
Fant is in a similar range to Hockenson, and there’s a lot of ways he can come out of this as the best fantasy option. Fant is an electric athlete, essentially breaking the combine. Fant was a 96th percentile or higher scorer in every drill and reminds some of former first-round TE Vernon Davis from a pure athleticism standpoint. There is absolutely no doubt that Fant will be a matchup nightmare in the NFL for almost every defense. There aren’t a lot of players in the NFL that can match up with Fant the athlete, so if he can clean up some of his technique, he could be in for a very long and special career. While Hockenson overtook Fant in production in their final season, it doesn’t change the fact that Fant is an electric athlete and was a special part of an otherwise bad passing game. The Denver Broncos are similar to the Lions. They’re completely rebuilding their offense, specifically at the skill positions. Beyond WR Courtland Sutton, there isn’t anyone that stands out as a blocker of Fant for year one targets. While TEs tend to transition slow, the Broncos may not have the luxury of bringing Fant along slow. In a similar fashion to TE Evan Engram’s year one with the Giants, Fant will have mistakes but could be fantasy relevant.
Fant is being drafted in a similar range to Hockenson but has a little wide variance in the back end of the first round. There are scenarios where he can drop to the 1.10-to-1.12 range if someone takes Cardinals WR Hakeem Butler or one of the top two round WRs with an early selection. Fant is a high floor selection with solid upside, and there should be no hesitation to draft him if he’s there in the late first round of rookie drafts.
3. Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings tipped their hand about TE Kyle Rudolph with this pick. In the second round, teams are looking for future starters and players that can produce in a significant way. They drafted Smith to be their starter of the future, and it’s no surprise that rumors of Rudolph landing on the trade block has been leaked. Smith played for an Alabama team in 2018 that was absolutely LOADED with future NFL WRs, and it’s pretty special he found a way into a weekly receiving role considering that. 710 receiving yards may not appear great, but in the context of competing for targets with WRs like Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III and Jaylen Waddle, it’s very impressive. Smith tested out “solid” at the combine, but certainly underwhelmed compared to what he put on film. A 69th percentile speed score is good, but he failed to impress in other drills (27th percentile burst score, 39th percentile agility score). Smith will struggle to help fantasy owners in year one, and that’s going to ding his rookie draft value in a lot of eyes. Rudolph is still there (for now), and barring a trade, it may be a glorified red-shirt rookie season for Smith.
Smith is being drafted in the late second round range, sometimes even slipping to the early third round. This is a prime place to grab him, and absolutely worth it from a long term perspective. Take the time discount for a player that could develop into a big-time fantasy asset someday.
4. Jace Sternberger, Green Bay Packers
Sternberger was arguably one of the biggest winners of the 2019 NFL draft. The Packers continue to ignore RB and WR in the early rounds, but drafting Sternberger in the third could be a huge fantasy football selection. Purely evaluating the depth chart from a draft position perspective, Almost all of the Packers skill positions players (beyond WR Davante Adams) were selected in the fourth round or later. Aaron Jones (5th), Jamaal Williams (4th), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (5th), Equanimeous St. Brown (6th), Geronimo Allison (UDFA) are all players the Packers have nothing invested in, and could very easily move on from, specifically in terms of snaps and targets. By drafting Sternberger in the third, they’re saying they believe he can be a starter for them. Sternberger was a receiving based weapon for Texas A&M and was most certainly NOT known for his blocking. His ability to make tightly contested catches is what got him drafted high. Beyond the first three TEs, Sternberger would be the guy to be irrationally confident in. If there’s a TE to reach for beyond his current ADP, Sternberger is a great gamble. Sternberger transferred from Kansas where he didn’t get much playing time and became a first-team All-American for Texas A&M in his junior season. Sternberger produced 832 receiving yards and was the clear leader of the offense beyond RB Trayveon Williams.
Sternberger is currently going in the third round of rookie drafts and leaning towards the early end of that round in TE premium leagues. He does slip in certain scenarios, but it’s only a matter of time before the hype articles about a top three round TE is going to QB Aaron Rodgers are going to happen. At the very least, buy now for the sell-high window.
T-5. Kahale Warring, Houston Texans; Josh Oliver, Jacksonville Jaguars; Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
Quite honestly, I didn’t know much about any of these prospects heading into the combine. There was due-diligence done at that stage, and Oliver was a player that was DFS relevant on a few late-night Saturday slates, but beyond that, these players were not significant college contributors. Knox was pinned for most of his career behind some electric talent on the Ole Miss depth Chart, which is reasonable, but there isn’t much to go on from a fantasy evaluation perspective! He made a few nice plays here and there, but making proclamations off small sample sizes (Knox had 39 career receptions) is a dangerous game. Warring only had 51 career receptions and played for a small school (San Diego State) that is one of the most run-heavy teams in the nation. Oliver was productive in his final season, catching 56 passes and turning that into 709 receiving yards and four touchdowns, but again, at a small school. As mentioned (for probably the 75th time this offseason), take TE production with a grain of salt.
Where things get really interesting for these prospects is the combine. Across the board, these three tested out great. Warring posted an 81st percentile speed score 84th percentile burst score and a 67th percentile agility score. Oliver posted an 86th percentile speed score and 56th percentile burst score. Knox posted an 84th percentile speed score, 71st percentile burst score and 74th percentile agility score. These are all good numbers and warrant consideration. The combine performances were an enormous boost to this rookie class, and the NFL confirmed that with the 2019 Draft. All three of these prospects landed in the third round of the 2019 draft, securing solid future success probability odds. There isn’t a strong take to be had here. The Texans drafted TE Jordan Akins in the third last year as well, so this could be an indicator they’re done with him. Oliver and Knox enter situations that are painfully barren beyond them. There’s plenty of opportunity to emerge among these three, and the odds are strong one of them will emerge into a fantasy starter for years to come. All three are going in varying ranges of the fourth round of rookie drafts, and in that range, there aren’t better bets from a probability sense.
8. Drew Sample, Cincinnati Bengals
This is one of the stranger situations in rookie drafts this year. If I weren’t drafting him in the final rounds of my rookie drafts, I don’t think he’d be getting picked at all. Sample was selected in the second round of the NFL draft by the Cincinnati Bengals, and while he had a little-to-no production profile to evaluate, the second round is HIGH praise. In terms of his profile, there’s context to why he was never an important part of the passing game. Beyond playing with WR Dante Pettis and John Ross for a lot of his career, Sample was dealing with Uber-talented TE/H-Back Hunter Bryant for snaps as a receiving down weapon the last two seasons. Yes, Bryant missed some time in 2018, but those five games he played had a big impact on Sample’s final year production. Sample tested out as a good athlete at the combine, posting a 76th percentile speed score and 67th percentile agility score. Sample is a good athlete and is strangely getting pegged as a blocking-only TE. While it’s clear folks are making the connection of Sample’s lack of receiving production as a reason he won’t do it in the NFL, I don’t buy it. Sample looked good on his receptions in limited work, and there’s no reason to think he can’t translate some of those skills to fantasy relevance. If he were a fourth or fifth round selection, it’d be a “feel free to ignore” scenario, but goodness, the Bengals invested a significant pick in him. They clearly view him as a future starter for their team, and with TE Tyler Eifert’s complete inability to stay on the field, there’s a path to a lot of snaps from very early on. Sample is currently free and takes no investment to get on a roster. He’s worth a roster spot.
