Bauer is back on his game. Plesac continues to pitch well which the Indians need, as Clevinger is headed to the IL again. Chavez has entered the rotation for the Rangers. deGrom hasn’t matched last season, but he’s not that far off. Snell was bombed, yet again, in his last outing. Giolito has been tremendous. That said, it’s a long season so we’re asking – have we accepted his stardom too early? Hill is hurt yet again, and he’s just hoping to pitch again this season. Stripling will take his rotation spot. Keuchel is back in the bigs. Mikolas is trying to get back to his form from last season. Means is heading to the IL. Lynn is pitching better than most think. Paddack is back in the bigs. Sale has dominated. Severino is trying to work his way back. Ditto Taillon.
Trevor Bauer is back on his game after a bit of a lull. Bauer allowed 11 runs in back-to-back outings, though at least four of the runs were unearned. On the heels of those two efforts he has allowed a single run over 16.2 innings to drop his ERA down to 3.41. He’s only 5-6 on the year, and that 3.74 BB/9 rate is still concerning. As worrisome is that his first pitch strike rate is terrible at 57.4 percent, and that his swinging strike rate is down from 13.3 percent last season to 11.8 percent this season.
Jesse Chavez is now part of the Rangers rotation. He does have three seasons with 20-starts at the big-league level, but since the start of last season he’s made four starts out of 96 appearances (two of those four starts were as an Opener this year with both efforts lasting less than two innings). He had a horrendous start to the season in April, but since May 1st he’s actually been quite effective: 0.58 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 3.11 K/BB ratio over 31 innings. He’s about eight strikeouts per inning, and that 1.34 WHIP he owns for his career sounds about right too. He’s just a guy, spot starter at best in mixed, but he’s turning into a really valuable option in AL-only leagues.
The Indians think that Mike Clevinger (ankle) will be able to make his scheduled start Saturday against the Tigers. That is until they didn’t. Another hit to a guy drafted everywhere as an SP2.
Jacob deGrom’s ERA has basically doubled from last season – 1.70 to 3.26 – but he’s pitching in a very similar manner. He’s lost a mere tenth in the K/9 rate (11.08), and is less than a tenth up in the walk rate (1.98 per nine). The biggest issue might be the homer rate. Last season he allowed an absurdly low 10 homers over 32 starts, and he’s already permitted 12 in 15 starts this season. The rate was certainly going up from last year, but there’s been a significant spike. Just gotta admit that last season was the outlier with that 6.3 percent HR/FB ratio. The mark of 14.5 percent this season is a bit below the 16.1 percent mark he posted in 2017. A final note. The number could easily dip at least a bit, if he starts generating more grounders. After posting a GB/FB ratio between 1.34 and 1.47 the past three years, the mark currently sits at a mere 1.17.
Lucas Giolito was blasted his last time out by the Cubs (six runs over 4.1 innings). That effort was his first in 11 outings with more than three runs allowed (he had allowed 0/1 in 7-of-8 previous outings), and he suffered his first loss since the first week of April. Let me be frank. I know that most folks think that Giolito has broken out, that the question is answered. I’m leaning in that direction at this point, but it has to be noted that it’s a very long season that isn’t even half completed. It’s still hard to believe that the 14.6 swinging strike rate will continue, the .259 BABIP is pretty low, the 79 percent left on base rate is really high, and that fifty percent drop in the HR/FB rate, I’m not to the point of fully accepting that Giolito has broken out. Oh, there’s that horrible effort he posted last season looming as well. Sign of things to come?
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Rich Hill has been placed on the DL, and he won’t throw for at least a month. Hill also told the press that he had a PRP injection to promote healing in his strained flexor tendon in his forearm, and that he believes he will be able to pitch again this season. Fifteen years into his big-league career, he’s still never thrown 135-innings in back-to-back seasons. Ross Stripling is going to take the rotation spot vacated by Hill. Stripling’s career numbers as a starter, 43 outings, include a 3.58 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and 211 strikeouts over 221 innings. There have been health issues for Stripling through the years, but he’s only at 49.2 innings this season, he tossed 122 last year, and he’s currently rocking a 1.17 WHIP with a 1.57 GB/FB ratio. He’s well worth an add in nearly all mixed leagues.
Dallas Keuchel will make his long-awaited debut today against the Nationals. I spoke about his outlook in this podcast.
Lance Lynn’s last eight starts: 2.92 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 11.35 K/9, 1.38 BB/9. Yes, he’s been dominant. Every one of the eight outings has been a quality start.
John Means is being sent to the IL with a shoulder issue. After never missing a start for health reasons in the minors, he’s hopeful that his current stay on the sidelines will be brief saying that there is “nothing serious” going on (he’s hopeful of missing just one start).
Miles Mikolas rebounded from a beat down at the hand of the Marlins (5 ER in 5 IP) by shutting out that same team in his next outing over six frames. Over his last five outings he’s posted a 3.72 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He’s quality, but not likely to replicate last season’s success in the second half.
Chris Paddack will return to game action for the Padres Saturday against the Pirates. Over his last three outings he’s allowed six homers and 13 runs over 14.1 innings. He threw less than 95-innings the past two seasons, and he’s already up to 65.2 this season with a target of about 135 innings this season. As great as the location is, and that fastball/change combo, it still bothers me that 89 percent of the balls he throws are two-pitches. If he starts out hot, it would be wise to check the value he could bring back in the trade market.
Zach Plesac has allowed one or two runs in 4-of-5 outings. He’s pitching well as a rookie. Still, he’s allowed a homer in 4-straight, and that includes four his last two outings. He also walked five guys the last time out. There are seeds of success here for sure, but the homer and the lack of dominant stuff (9.1 swinging strike rate and a K/9 mark below 7.40) suggest caution.
Chris Sale has been – say it with me – amazing after that scary start to the campaign. Through 15 starts has he a 12.95 K/9 rate and a 0.97 WHIP. The WHIP would tie the second-best mark of his career, while the K-rate would be the second best. Remove his first four starts, and you get 11 outings with a 2.24 ERA, 14.43 K/9, a 7.25 K/BB, a 0.83 WHIP and 51 hits in 77.1 innings. Somehow, he’s 3-3 in those 11 starts. Honestly, you really can’t pitch any better.
Luis Severino (shoulder) hopes to start throwing next week off the mound. He’ll obviously need a minor league rehab stint, and given that he will basically have to start over from scratch, it’s extremely unlikely that we will see him before the All-Star break.
What is wrong with Blake Snell? He got one out while allowing six runs his last time out to the Yankees. That’s the fourth time he’s allowed at least five earned runs this season, the third time it’s been six or more, and the second time in four outings he’s allowed six. That’s a 4-game run of the following: 10.29 ERA, 7.07 BB/9 and 2.14 WHIP. That’s horrid. “With as many off-speed pitches as I threw today, I’ve got to be more aggressive with the fastball,” said Snell after his outing against the Yankees. “I was trying to make them chase too early without establishing the fastball and making them even swing at it.” Snell threw 24-of-39 pitches in the outing of the off-speed variety, but it’s not just one game. Last season Snell threw his fastball 52 percent, and this season the mark is just 41 percent. Not only is he not throwing the fastball, when he does toss it the results have been poor (.291 average, .778 OPS). Snell simply isn’t pitching anywhere near the level he did last season. He’s nibbling, despite throwing the first pitch for a strike a career best 67 percent of the time (the mark was a mere 57 percent last season). Let me be clear. He’s upped his first pitch strike rate by 10 percentage points from last season but his walk rate has gone up. He’s thinking too much out there, and the results have been poor-is. He needs to throw his fastball more, and to trust his stuff.
Jameson Taillon (elbow) isn’t where he hoped to be at this point. He hasn’t returned to throwing, though the team hopes in 10-14 days that he will. If that doesn’t work, Taillon could go under the knife meaning that his season is teetering in the balance.
Adam Wainwright has returned with Daniel Ponce de Leon being sent to the minors in a corresponding move. Just an FYI for those of you there are desperate.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
