Happy Friday my Fantasy Guru fam! It’s that time of the week where we take a tour though the Mind of Marsal. Today, I’ll be going over some running backs that I really like heading into the season. I am not going to bore you with the obvious guys such as Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot, or David Johnson. These are guys I like, and for the most part, so does the rest of the industry. By now you should already know I love Nick Chubb this year. If you did not know, make sure to read On The Clock: Pick 2.05 which digs into why I like him so much this season. With that said, let’s jump right into it and go over some of these players.
RUNNING BACKS I’M DIGGING IN 2019
Marlon Mack, Colts – I have been very open about my love for Mack this season. He is coming off of a breakout year as a sophomore and should build off of that this season. Last year he rushed for 908 yards on 195 carries, averaging a healthy 4.7 yards per carry, and scored nine rushing touchdowns. He added 17 receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown on 26 targets, with a catch rate of 71 percent. Mack was also very active in the red zone with 48.6 percent of the carries in this field position and even higher when inside the 5-yard line, as he received 66.7 percent of those carries. The Colts took a huge step forward last season in points per game, finishing eighth in that department, as well as red zone scoring attempts per game, with 3.9 which was good for fourth highest in the league. In addition, this offensive line continues to improve and at the end of last season, graded out as a top 10 unit. The Colts added Spencer Ware this offseason, but I am not expecting him to cut too much into Mack’s workload. Barring injury, I am expecting a huge season out of Mack this year and he is someone I plan on drafting as much as possible in my fantasy leagues. I’m all in here!
Joe Mixon, Bengals – Mixon quietly had a very strong season last year, finishing fourth in rushing yards and 10th in fantasy points among running backs. He rushed for 1,171 yards on 236 rush attempts, averaging a healthy 4.9 yards per carry, while scoring eight rushing touchdowns. He also caught 43-of-54 targets for 296 yards and one touchdown. His red zone role was a big one, as he accounted for 66.7 of Cincinnati’s rush attempts inside the 20-yard line, while receiving 75 percent of the carries inside the 5-yard line. The Bengals offensive line was not so good last season, but they addressed that in this year’s draft by taking Jonah Williams of Alabama, who was graded as one of the top offensive lineman in this class and also added Michael Jordan in the fourth round. No no, not the GOAT NBA player, the Jordan from Ohio State University. I digress. Needless to say, Mixon is a very good running back who is capable of both running in between the tackles and catching passes out of the backfield. With a healthy offense and an improved line to run behind, the third year back should be in for a very strong season.
Kerryon Johnson, Lions – I kind of feel that Johnson is going somewhat overlooked this season for whatever reason. His current ADP is somewhere in the fourth round and taken as RB20 in most cases. Truth be told, I believe he can easily finish as a top 15 back and it would not be at all shocking to me if he was a top 10-12 back at the end of the season. Last year he played 10 games, rushing for 641 yards on 118 carries and three rushing touchdowns, while averaging a very healthy 5.4 yards per carry. He also displayed good hands, catching 32-of-39 targets for 213 yards and a touchdown. In the first season under new head coach Matt Patricia, the Lions ran the ball three times more per game than they did in 2017, with 25.7 rush attempts per game. That number increased toward the end of last year, as Detroit averaged 29 rush attempts per game in their last three games. This is the direction that coach Patricia wants this offense to go to. The Lions did add C.J. Anderson this offseason, which could limit Johnson’s true ceiling, but even with this addition, it is difficult to ignore a back as explosive as Johnson. I am really liking the upside here and think he will return good value for fantasy owners who take a shot on him.
Kenyan Drake, Dolphins – Drake let a lot of fantasy owners down last year after a disappointing season. That said, it was all about opportunity for him, not about performance. For whatever reason Coach Adam Gase limited his touches and role. You see, Drake only received 120 rush attempts and saw 66 targets. However, when he did get the opportunity, he did well. He averaged 1.2 fantasy points per touch which was more than some of the well-known backs in the league such as Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, and Christian McCaffrey. In addition, Drake averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per carry last season and caught 80 percent of his targets last year. He also displayed what he is capable of doing in 2017, rushing for over 100 yards in every game with at least 20 carries and over 70 yards in any game with at least 14 carries. Under Gase last season however, he never received more than 14 carries in any game and got double digit carries in just five games. The good news is that Gase is no longer the head coach of this team and Drake is arguably the best player on this offense, so it would not be at all shocking to see the new regime feed him. This is another running back that is somewhat going overlooked and can pay off in a big way.
Jordan Howard, Eagles – So I saved the best for last. I kid, I kid, but hear me out. Truth be told, I have never been a huge fan of Howard. That said, I think he is in for a solid season this year and considering his cheap price tag, I am finding myself with a decent amount of Howard on my teams. We tend to forget that he is still just 24 years old, has been durable since joining the league, and has shown the ability to carry the workload for an offense. So far in three seasons, he has finished with at least nine rushing touchdowns twice and has topped 930 rushing yards each year, including two 1,000+ rushing yard seasons. He now joins the Eagles offense who has a strong offensive line and has a heck of a quarterback with very good pass catchers. Therefore, opposing defenses cannot stack eight in the box. In addition, since the hiring of Doug Pederson in Philadelphia, they have been top 10 in rush attempts per game in all but one season, so this is an offense that likes to run it. Not to mention, the Eagles were 11th in scoring attempts per game last season and fifth in 2017, so chances are there will be plenty of scoring opportunities for Howard. I am not saying go all in on him by any means or that he is going to be a complete stud, but if he finishes with 1,000+ rushing yards and 8-10 touchdowns this season, he will certainly be paying off his current eighth round ADP.
That’s it for this week my peeps. Make sure to stop by our chat room if you have any questions and you can also reach out to me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal. Have a great weekend!
