Unless you own one of about five guys, your catcher position is a mess if you’re in a two catcher setup. We’ve got veterans doing nothing. We’ve got nobodies doing something. We’ve got injured guys struggling. Truthfully, the catcher’s spot has been a mess for years, but it’s even worse this season than in years past (or is it?). In what follows, I’ll present a quick review of the position before discussing some individuals that may help you the rest of the way, or may hurt you if you don’t move on from them.
THE POSITION
There have been 44 catcher eligible players who have 100 plate appearances. Here are some thoughts on the group.
Eight men are batting .290. Five of the eight have at least 185 plate appearances: James McCann, Tony Wolters, Willson Contreras, Omar Narvaez and Christian Vazquez.
Eleven catchers have a .350 OBP. Five men are over .375: Contreras, J. McCann, Wolters, Yasmani Grandal and Mitch Garver.
Eleven catchers have a .500 SLG. Three men are over .575: Mitch Garver, Gary Sanchez and Tom Murphy.
Here is the list of catchers who are hitting .275/.350/500: Brian McCann, James McCann, Willson Contreras and Mitch Garver.
Eight catches have hit 10 homers. Three have hit 15: Gary Sanchez, Yasmani Grandal, Willson Contreras.
Four catchers have 40 RBI. One has 45: Gary Sanchez.
Four catchers have 35 runs batted in. One has 40: J.T. Realmuto.
A FEW OF THE BACKSTOPS
Willians Astudillo was demoted to Triple-A and appeared in nine games. What did he do? He hit three homers, drove in 11, scored 10 times and hit… .526. Recalled to the bigs, he’s produced a homer and four hits in two games. We’re now 225 plate appearances into his career, and he’s hitting .307 with two walks and five strikeouts (read that again). This season he’s caught 15 times, played first seven times, second once, third eight times and the outfield five times. With Marwin Gonzalez on the IL, and Mitch Garver dealing with heel soreness, Astudillo becomes a prime target for addition on waivers this weekend.
Tucker Barnhardt has been a failure this season. He has the best walk rate of his career, but the strikeout rate is way up at 27 percent (the mark was between 16-18 each of the last five seasons). It’s one thing to say that a player isn’t producing, but it’s another thing to realize that said player simply isn’t himself. Tucker isn’t at the moment, and there’s little happening to make one feel good about the second half either. Late word – he’s gonna start losing playing time.
John Hicks has a terrible 0.16 BB/K ratio this season, and after four years of being a league average type of performer, he’s crashed this season with a .576 OPS and a 30 percent K-rate. There’s nothing to see here at the moment.
Danny Jansen has struggled in his first full season in the bigs. Sounds like he’s been weighed down a bit by everything catching requires (the mental side of things, calling games, understanding hitters, handling pitcher etc.). He also has a mere .217 BABIP, this despite a 42.3 percent hard-hit rate (league average 34.3) and an 88.5 exit velo (league average 87.4). You could say he has been unfortunate, and I would agree with you.
Russell Martin has always been able to get on base. He has a .372 OBP currently which would be his best mark since 2014. It’s really about his batting average though. The last three years Martin has hit a mere .218 with a .338 OBP meaning his OBP has been .120 points higher than his average. This season the OBP is way up at .372, but the number is only .098 points above his average. He’s living off a .348 BABIP, more than .060 points above his career level, and the mark has been below .250 the last two years. Highly likely a slowdown is coming.
Brian McCann hit at least 18 homers for 12-straight years before falling to seven last year. The 35 year old has seven homers this season too giving him 14 homers his last 314 at-bats which isn’t that far off that 20-homer pace. What is surprising is that McCann is hitting .296. A career .263 hitter, he’s been under .250 each of the past five years. His K-rate is a career best, as is that beautiful looking 0.94 BB/K (the last time the mark was even 0.70 was 2010). He’s not hitting lefties (.133 in 15 at-bats) but he is mashing righties. The homer pace will slow, and the batting average will fall, but with health he will bee a top-20 catcher the rest of the way, if not slightly better.
James McCann was a $1 add this year in AL LABR, which is a 12-team, two catcher setup. Flash forward three months, and he’s been stupendous (.330/.385/.525). Compare that current slash line to the numbers he posted in his career entering the ’19 season: .240/.288/.366. Yes, McCann’s current OBP is better than his SLG the last five years. Yeah, that happens a lot. It’s just not easy to go from junk to a star overnight. In fact, it rarely happens. (1) McCann still has a poor 0.31 BB/K ratio that is only a tenth above normal. (2) McCann has an unsustainable .409 BABIP that is .111 points above his mark heading into this season. (3) The last five years McCann had a 1.20 GB/FB ratio. This year the mark is 1.32. (4) McCann is using the whole field much better than before, his opposite field hit rate in terms of a percentage of batted balls was between 28-30 percent the last three years and it’s way up this season at 38 percent. There’s nothing in his profile to suggest that his second half will match his first. There’s not much in the data this season to suggest it will either. A prime sell high candidate.
Roberto Perez has 13 homers in just 164 at-bats this season for the Indians. He hit 13 homers the last three seasons in 549 at-bats. What changed? Shockingly, the launch angle mark this season is only 6.1 percent, and the mark is less than a point above where it was last season. Further, his current 32.7 percent fly ball rate is only 0.5 above his career mark. The hard-hit rate is way up, six percent above his norm at 46.2 percent, but the overall picture is simply not one that supports Perez being a legit 20-homer hitter.
Buster Posey is a shell of his former self. Injuries have worn down the former elite level fantasy performer to the point where he’s performing like a low-end catcher two (.246/.307/.383). He’s simply no longer capable of driving the baseball. He posted a .382 SLG last year before going down with the hip thing that required surgery, and that was supposed to help stabilize his game this season. It hasn’t happened as the mark is a meager .383 this year. That’s now 157 games with Posey hitting eight homers. Interestingly, Posey’s 89.1 mph exit velocity is just two tenths below the mark since 20015, and his 40.1 percent hard-hit rate would be his second-best mark in five years. The power appears to be gone, but the batting average should improve.
Kurt Suzuki has been a per at-bat beast for the last three years. Since the start of last season, he’s appeared in 146 games, and the numbers are impressive given that hardly anyone talks about him: .271-20-82-60. He doesn’t play daily, but the production continues to be there.
Christian Vazquez entered the 2019 season hitting under .250 with a total of 10 homers over four seasons. This year he’s batting .290 with eight homers. Oddly, this is not some huge swing shift thing that is driving the growth. Christian’s launch angle is down 0.4 from last season, and his fly ball rate is only up 1.5 percent. The power is all about HR/FB. Entering the season, the mark was under six percent. This season it’s at 13.1 percent. His BB/K ratio is the same, ditto his pull rate, so I’m just not seeing the growth needed to keep up his current offensive pace.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
