Welcome back for another installment of the #FridayFantasyFocus!
Last week’s segment on Calvin Ridley turned me into not only a believer of Ridley for this year, but also someone that’s now trying to buy Ridley long term before he posts a follow up top-24 fantasy season.
That’s essentially the goal of this series. To try and illuminate some of the more puzzling players at current ADP and to try and shed some light whether or not we should be buying or selling at current cost.
We’ll start with taking an overall zoomed out look at the team situation — starting with the team’s 2019 outlook, what changes they’ve made this offseason, team tendencies, etc. Then zoom in a bit on projected volume, role that the player will have in the offense, and finally, current ADP. The goal here is after reading this column, you’ll feel comfortable drafting or fading at current cost because of the reasons laid out before you.
This week’s player is one that the draft community was extremely excited about as he entered his rookie season. He started off the year terribly, but a second-half resurgence leaves a lot of room for optimism heading into year two. This week’s #FFF will start with a deep dive on Seattle running back, Rashaad Penny.
2019 Seattle Seahawks
Last year’s run-heavy Seahawks squad finished the regular season with a 10-6 record, getting eliminated in the Wildcard round of the playoffs by the Cowboys. Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s offense was predicated on the run, leading the league in both rushing play percentage (52.44%) and rushing yards (2,560).
Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Points Scored | |
SEA | 3,093 | 35 | 2,560 | 15 | 428 |
Rank | 27th | 5th | 1st | 11th | 6th |
Despite ranking last in pass attempts, quarterback Russell Wilson still had a phenomenal fantasy year (QB9) thanks to a 35:7 touchdown to interception ratio. Schottenheimer plans to continue employing a heavy rushing attack as the “identity” of this offense, even though Seattle just paid Wilson a four-year extension for $140M ($107M guaranteed).
“We make no apologies for how we play,’’ Schottenheimer recently said. “We want to run the football. We want to be physical. We want to take our shots.’’
Seattle’s moves this offseason back up Schottenheimer’s claims. They invested early picks to shore up the defense, added a field stretcher in D.K. Metcalf (second round), then added some offensive line help with guard Phil Haynes (fourth round). Haynes is a versatile blocker that should help both the run and pass game as a swing backup.
Entering the 2019 season, we can reasonably expect the Seahawks to remain near the top of the league in rush attempts. Schottenheimer’s coaching career has revolved around emphasizing the run and looks like heavy volume should be here to stay. Last year, the Seahawks ran the ball at least 28 times in 14-of-16 games. The next closest were the Ravens with 11. In terms of fantasy football, that’s a good thing for Rashaad Penny’s future outlook.
Rashaad Penny’s 2019 Role
A lackluster training camp combined with a finger injury led to Chris Carson taking lead back duties heading into last season. That relegated Penny to backup status where he saw very little volume. Not only were Penny’s touches limited, he failed to impress with the touches he received to start the year.
Split | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Y/A | Rush TDs | Tgts | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TDs |
Weeks 1-8 | 38 | 135 | 3.55 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
Weeks 9-17 | 47 | 284 | 6.04 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
As the year progressed, Penny finally got healthy and was able to have a much more productive second half. His yards per carry skyrocketed and was able to convert on some red zone work for touchdowns. 13 of his 85 carries went for 10-plus yards (15.3%), showcasing the speed and burst that warranted Seattle taking him in the first round. Out of the 55 running backs that saw Penny’s 85 carries or more, Penny’s 10-plus rate ranked sixth among the subset.
Last year, Seattle running backs combined for 451 carries and 85 targets. The departure of Mike Davis makes this a backfield that’s reportedly set to split into a “one-two punch” according to Head Coach Pete Carroll. Davis leaves behind a vacated 112 carries (24.8%) and 42 targets (49.4%) — a sizable portion of touches to divide among Penny and Carson.
That leads us to the main question in all of this — which running back looks like the current contender for “1A” status?
The biggest thing going for Penny is draft capital. Seattle spent a first-round pick on him just a year ago and the team will certainly try to make sure that wasn’t a mistake to ownership. Another big thing for Penny is how he opened last year reportedly hovering close to 240 pounds. It was evident in watching his early season game play that he would lose balance rather easily on first touch from oncoming tacklers. Penny spent this offseason slimming down (close to 225 pounds now) in an attempt to play at a faster speed and improve his overall game. OC Brian Schottenheimer has already stated how much better Penny looks in camp from his ability to make defenders miss and his improvement in the receiving game. Granted, it’s June and we should take coachspeak with a grain of salt at this time of year. But this is a step in the right direction for Penny and at least worth noting he’s doing the right things to better himself as an athlete.
Carson was an undrafted free agent, but after what he showed last year, it’s difficult to argue that he should be put to the wayside. Carson’s workload culminated in him finishing as the fantasy RB15 last year. His ability to make defenders miss by running people over (league-leading 45 missed tackles forced last season) and hurdling them makes him a valuable asset — especially in short yardage and goal-to-go situations. He had 20-plus touches in seven of the 14 games he played, showcasing a workhorse mentality.
Carson continues to rehabilitate from a knee injury, but all signs are pointing towards him entering training camp healthy. His track record last year — 247 carries for 1,151 yards and nine touchdowns — showed he can handle the workload of being the 1A in this backfield. Even if we scale back his touches 12%-15%, he’s still looking at a 200-carry season. If we give 90% of Davis’ carries to Penny, Penny will also hover right around the 200-carry mark with about 50 carries to be dished out among the remaining guys in the backfield. Where Penny can really make a difference is in the receiving game. Davis saw nearly half the running back targets last season. Carson saw more than three targets just three times last year. Schottenheimer has been extremely impressed in the work Penny’s put in towards his receiving game as a route runner. Based on OTA and minicamp reports, there’s a very realistic chance we see Penny combine a 1B workload with being the team’s primary third down back.
In summary, it truly looks like the Seahawks are set to enter this season with a full-blown committee between the two backs. Carson and Penny’s strengths complement each other well to form a dangerous duo. Carson’s ability to run through defenders and grind out tough yardage is the vintage identity of what the Seahawks coaches are trying to cultivate in terms of culture. Add in a lighter Penny with his 93rd percentile speed score, and he should be able to pick up real estate in large chunks as the lightning to Carson’s thunder. Over the last five years, only 12 other running backs had as many carries as Penny during his rookie season and picked up yards at a more productive rate (4.9 YPC).
Image from ProFootballReference.com
Half this group has turned into quality fantasy starters while the other half has flamed out already. I think that’s an accurate portrayal of where we stand with Penny at this juncture. He could quite easily fall on either side of this division, but color me optimistic. If Penny inherits most of Davis’ leftover targets, he could easily raise his fantasy floor and create weekly consistency. A fantasy top-36 role this year isn’t what Penny truthers will want to hear, but it’s likely a realistic median projection with Carson continuing to play a substantial role in this offense and in the red zone.
Average Draft Position
In redraft leagues, it’s pretty simple. The Seahawks run-heavy nature is going to create some opportunities for fantasy value. I’d simply prefer to take a shot on the cheaper back. Penny (RB33) is currently going two rounds after Carson (RB26) according to recent ADP. With a backfield reportedly set to split somewhat evenly, taking the cheaper option with the higher draft pedigree seems like a no-brainer to me. Carson may see more red zone work, but Penny’s receiving skillset should create a quality floor that you can rely on from a week-to-week fantasy perspective.
In terms of dynasty, Penny is an intriguing buy and a tough sell.
Photo courtesy of DynastyLeagueFootball.com
Current owners of Penny aren’t going to give up Penny for cheap. Most are stuck in the mud with sunk cost fallacy. They recently spent a first-round pick on him and want to make sure they didn’t waste their draft pick. For better or worse, you’re likely going to be forced to overpay to acquire him. That likely means having to give a 2020 1st and another piece on top of that to likely get them to move. That’s not worth it to me considering a decent 2020 1st round pick could land you a superstar that’s not in a timeshare like Penny.
Adversely, if I’m a Penny owner now in dynasty, I’m absolutely charging an arm and a leg in hopes of hauling in a 2020 1st and another piece. This 2020 class is supposedly loaded with talent, and there’s a realistic case that Penny and Carson continue to split the workload capping each other’s ceilings as they become mid-range RB2/RB3’s for the next few years. The successful rushing duo may keep Schottenheimer’s offense chugging along to winning records, but we fantasy owners would be getting just mild fantasy assets out of it. For that reason, Penny’s a sell for me if you can get a quality 2020 1st round pick and a viable flex option.
Questions? Comments? Concerns? Let me know what you think in Live Chat and whether or not you have any recommendations for a future #FridayFantasyFocus.