Structural advantages were something we discussed a while ago, and it will be the main focus of this piece for the next couple of weeks. There’s a few very important concepts I use as building blocks, that once explained, will make the success probability charts easier to apply strategy-wise. Dynasty leagues have a plethora of concepts and ideas that can work, but having a strong grasp of how the wheel is turning can create awareness for why things are working the way they are.
More roster evaluation! As soon as I wrote the first roster-based evaluation piece, it instantly became clear this was a great way to frame an article. While I have my opinions on roster building, this type of thought practice creates a scenario where I’m “telling” my option, but also shows just how versatile dynasty strategy can be. There are many ways to building a winning dynasty roster, and through tons of experience through playing, I’ve learned a lot of these principles. If I learned from other league-mates and seeing strategies “pass” or “fail” over multiple years, why not bring Guru Subs along for the ride with that type of thought process evolution?
Over the last two weeks, I’ve taken part in a new startup dynasty league, and this seems like a solid place to share the results. Let’s take a look at how this team was built, the logic behind it, and a realistic view of how things will play out. At the time of writing this, the draft is only through 18 (of 31) rounds. Despite a lot of rounds still to go, the most important picks are in the rearview and should be the main focus anyhow.
ROSTER EVALUATION PRACTICE
- Format: Bestball
- Teams: 12
- Roster Spots: 31
- Starting Lineup Spots: 11
- QB – 1-2
- RB – 1-7
- WR – 1-7
- TE – 2-3
- Scoring – PPR
Evaluation Practice: Take a moment and look over the roster. What are the strengths? What are the weaknesses and risks this roster is currently dealing with? How does this team translate in a Bestball setting, over 16 weeks?
Critique: First of all, this is a strange format for a dynasty league. Starting two TEs as a mandatory weekly thing could create a lot of turmoil by the middle of the season. Simply put, there aren’t a lot of fantasy relevant players at the TE position. As seen here, having only three TEs through 18 rounds is probably not optimal. In fact, I know it’s not optimal. Especially considering bye weeks, expecting three TEs to carry the load, especially with two being drafted in the later rounds (of the startup). I love the O.J. Howard, Mike Gesicki and Hayden Hurst upside combination for the long term, but expecting Hurst and Gesicki to become consistent fantasy assets in 2019 is a bit silly. With that said, there was strategy behind fading the second TE spot.
Here’s my thinking. In 2018, in PPR, three TEs averaged above 16.0 PPG (Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and George Kittle had amazing seasons). Beyond that, just seven other TEs averaged above 10.0 PPG, and that’s counting Rob Gronkowski (10.2 PPG in 13 games), Austin Hooper (10.2 PPG) and Jack Doyle (10.2 PPG in six games). After that, it was a total crapshoot. Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate ended the season averaging 5.8 PPG and finished as TE19 in total points. Dallas Goedert barley got targeted at all (42 on the season) and found himself as TE20!. Between TE16 (Chris Herndon) and TE40 (Levine Toilolo), the range was 3.3 to 6 PPG. That’s… so few fantasy points! While there’s certainly a tactical advantage to having two or three really good TEs, the majority of the league is going to be struggling to score fantasy points from that position every year. The issue is, unlike QBs in a super-flex (SF) format, the TE2 scores so little on average that even an advantage in that area won’t be a big enough advantage to average out weakness at other positions.
ANYWAY. The rest of the roster looks exactly how you’d expect from what I’ve been preaching all offseason. AT LEAST three QBs early (Because it’s SF), young RBs, WRs and TEs who have draft position on their side. It’s really that simple (Ok, maybe not, but still!).
The incredible lineup (Only required to start one RB or WR per week) versatility creates a situation where completely fading RB or WR was plausible (at least in the first ten rounds) with the right attention to detail, but I opted to go balanced. Again, having insurance policies on each position is something I highly value, so at least early, leaving a position out to dry and hoping to “figure it out later” is something I’ll rarely do. By drafting Ezekiel Elliott in round one, I allowed my roster flexibility to fade RB depth in the double-digit rounds (where I knew I was going to want to pursue WRs). Teams should never be viewed as finished products after the startup. There simply isn’t enough assets to go around in the original draft (especially with rookies in the player pool) to create what I’d consider a ‘finished product’. It usually takes two-to-three years of diligence on waivers and in the rookie draft before creating a full roster worth of assets.
(MINI-RANT WARNING)
That is, of course, unless you poach all the weak owners on in the league and steal all their assets slowly but surely. Folks love dynasty trades, and I’m not one to discourage that, but when I see advice on volume trading to win leagues, I instantly cringe. Ultimately, there’s money on the line, and folks who pay money should be allowed to do whatever they want, but if one owner is constantly taking advantage of the new guy, there’s a bunch of other owners watching that, and a few of them will assuredly build resentments. If you’re that guy that’s winning dynasty leagues by stealing from the poor, that’s your prerogative, but that’s very similar to beating Madden on the rookie difficulty setting. As Guru Subs, you can beat the pants off your league mates without resorting to this. We will crush them but through tactical advantages and out-evaluating them on players. The goal for me has ALWAYS been to be the best fantasy football player I can, and beating up on guppies (In both dynasty and season-long) will never hone the skills you need to beat the best in higher stakes (and skill) leagues.
The only time this is acceptable (for me) is a home league. If you’re playing in a local league with your buddies and they love to talk shit and brag, then by all means, crush their souls with trades. BUT, If you’re reading this, I’d imagine it’s because you want to get better at fantasy football. Volume trading doesn’t make you better at fantasy football.
END RANT
Anyway, the rest of the roster is pretty straight forward. I felt there was an inefficiency early on at QB, so I traded up to get the Russell Wilson/Carson Wentz combo in the third round. There are certainly some concerns, but long term, I’d project both to be around and hold value for the next five or so years. Luck has the shoulder, Wilson has the bad fantasy offense, and Wentz is a maniac who throws his knees into oncoming linebackers. The odds one of their careers ends early is plausible, but QB injury rates are still much lower than the rest of the positions. This is one of the main reasons to focus on QBs in SF formats. QBs play longer and hold value so much longer than other positions; an early investment in QBs is much, much safer.
The rest is all draft-position based, and I’ve talked extensively about that. Between Rashaad Penny, Royce Freeman and Ronald Jones, I’d expect one to become a fantasy starter and another to be a solid contributor based on draft position hit rates. I’m not going to discuss all the WRs, but it’s the same deal. While a lot of those players haven’t presented results yet, and some have disappointed, I’m going to let draft position take care of this for me.
Overall, this roster is unlikely to WIN in year one, as a lot of the WRs and TEs are young and not established. Though, there is enough upside to compete. A lot of teams traded their future firsts, so it’s important to realize the advantage (or disadvantage if you don’t) that creates for the 2019 season, especially if they’re targeting the current season. Like most teams (as mentioned previously), the goal would be to have this team running at full steam by year two, and in DOMINATION mode by year three. The avenue to win year one is there, however, considering the strength of the QBs. If the WRs hit a royal flush, year one is in reach.
