The Marlins are being forced to change things up with their rotation leading to Gallen and Yamamoto getting shots in the rotation. Shaun Anderson is another youngster in the NL. Should you be looking his way? Homer Bailey is having success. Really. DeSclafani is rounding into form. Flaherty is going in the other direction. Happ has stabilized, at least a bit. Keller continues his rough start in the majors. Kershaw dominated the Giants and continues to get outs. Kikuchi has really hit the skids, while Skaggs is trying to hit the accelerator. Stroman doesn’t get wins, but keeps his team in games. Teheran had a bad outing ending a remarkable run of success.
MARLINS PITCHING STAFF
It was thought that the Marlins would have to make a decision in short order about their pitching staff, then the injury bug reared its ugly head opening things up at least a little bit. As a result, Pablo Lopez has been placed on the IL and that would seem to give the Marlins two options in the rotation for two of their brightest young arms – at least until Caleb Smith (hip) is ready to return (which sounds like it will happen next week but realize is pretty much already up to the innings total he tossed last season). As for Lopez, he was placed on the IL with a shoulder strain, and it’s unclear how much time he will miss. “You want to make sure you’re staying on top of it, and really try to get them back on the field and on the mound as soon as possible, to continue to gain experience,” said manager Don Mattingly. “Like [Caleb Smith], we wanted to get ahead of it. We feel like his is going good. He will have a rehab start. We feel he’s on a rehab track back.” We just don’t know how much time he will miss at this point.
Zac Gallen has been called up and he will start today against the Cardinals. Gallen has been a monster in the minors with some of the best numbers in the universe including a 9-1 record, 1.77 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 11.04 K/9 and 6.59 K/BB ratio. He has flat out dominated. Note that his prospect status doesn’t match those numbers. He’s more of a control pitcher versus a dominator, despite the strikeout numbers, as he changes speed effectively with his three main offerings. The control does help the stuff to play up, but it’s a different animal in the bigs. Realize that MLB Pipeline and Baseball America barely had Gallen inside their top-20 prospects with the Marlins, and most assume he’s a 4th starter type at the big-league level. He could easily have early success in the big leagues, but he’s not going to dominate.
Jordan Yamamoto simply has the Cardinals number. He’s made two starts against the Birds tossing 14 innings, seven each time out, without allowing a single run. That’s about as good a start as we’ve ever seen as he is the first pitcher since George Dumont in 1915 to being his career with seven shutout innings, allowing three hits or fewer, in his first two Major League starts. That’s more than 100-years folks.
So, Jose Urena, Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez are out for now. That gives youngsters Gallen and Yamamoto a chance to grab a spot in this rotation and run with it, provided that Elieser Hernandez isn’t in the rotation, but it’s very unclear how much time Gallen/Yamamoto will get in the short-term. Yeah, don’t forget about Hernandez who has looked solid his last two outings (four runs allowed in two starts over 11.2 innings).
THE OTHER ARMS
Shaun Anderson has now gone four June outings allowing three or fewer earned runs. He’s kept the Giants in games, and that sounds good on the surface, but it’s really not that interesting from a fantasy perspective. Over the four outings he’s given length with 24.2 innings, but his 5.47 K/9 rate stinks. It’s even worse when you note that he’s allowed 3.65 walks per nine. He’s also allowed four homers. Best cause is a quality start. He’s a younger Mike Leake – with more walks.
Homer Bailey has allowed three runs his last three outings, including throwing 13.2 scoreless innings the last two outings. Yeah, that Homer Bailey. Honestly, though his ERA stinks, his performance hasn’t been awful as he has a .304 wOBA at home and .315 on the road. Yes, his wOBA against is better than the league average. The walk rate is still 3.74 per nine, and he is Homer Bailey, but he’s a potential streaming option.
Anthony DeSclafani was one of my preseason darlings. The work to take has been solid, you’ve gotten what you paid for, but he’s cranked things up a notch of late. Over his last three outings he’s gone five innings each time, without reaching six, as he’s allowed a single earned run in each outing. The key to the success is two-fold. He’s walked just four batters in 16 innings while keeping the ball in the yard (zero homers). Check the waiver-wire to see if he’s sitting out there.
Jack Flaherty has allowed six homers his last four outings. Ugh. His effort the last three times out has been, poor. He has 16 Ks in 16 innings, but he’s also allowed four homers and 11 runs. Still love the arm, but he’s been very inconsistent this season including being brutal on the road (6.68 ERA, .370 wOBA). Of course, that means he has been effective at home with a 2.49 ERA, .248 wOBA and an uber-impressive 6.63 K/BB ratio. At least you know when to sit him.
J.A. Happ hasn’t been as effective as usual this season. He’s 7-3 overall, and he’s allowed one or two runs in 3-of-4 outings, but he’s still lacking the strikeout oomph that he’s had in the past as he’s fallen from a strikeout per inning the last two seasons down to 7.16 per nine this year. His first pitch strike rate is down three percent from the last two seasons, and that’s not helping anything. Also concerning is the huge homer total of 1.90 per nine. His career mark is 1.15. Why is it up this season? The last three seasons the HR/FB ratio has been 12 percent. The 16.7 percent mark this season is therefore surprising. The launch angle on batted balls is only up 0.8 percent over the last four seasons, not much to see there to explain the major jump. Expect the homers to slow a bit moving forward, but he’s just not as sharp as he once was.
Mitch Keller has made three starts, and the future star of the Pirates has been completely ineffective. He’s coming off his best outing of the three, and that was four runs over five innings against the less than powerful Tigers offense (only two runs were earned). Keller has allowed 15 runs over 12 innings with a massive 2.25 WHIP. I still really like his game, and I’m all about him in dynasty leagues, but he’s been sent back to the minors as the team activated Trevor Williams (see this report).
Clayton Kershaw, predictably, dominated the Giants allowing nary a run over seven shutout innings. That’s six or more innings pitched in every start for Kershaw this season. Over his last 27 starts he’s gone at least six innings 26 times. How amazing is that for the aging, likely to break down, Kershaw? Exactly. He’s just damn good, even if he’s no longer flat out dominant.
Yusei Kikuchi allowed six runs the last time out, his velocity was down about three mph, and the concerns are growing. “There’s certain nights where you maybe don’t have your crispest or your best fastball,” manager Scott Servais said. “Those are the nights you find out what kind of pitcher you are. He’s had a few of those, where he maybe hasn’t been throwing the 94-mph heater and the nasty slider right out of the chute, but you’ve still got to find a way to keep your team in the game, and he’s struggled to do that.” That’s three outings in four trips to the hill where he has allowed six earned runs. Those four outings include eight homers allowed and nine walks and 20 runs over 16.2 innings. He’s careening straight off the cliff.
Tyler Skaggs became the first Angels pitcher, in game 74, to record 22 outs in a game (I know it’s 2019, but come on man). That’s solid efforts the last two times out – four runs over 12.1 innings with 11 strikeouts and two walks – and in three starts in June batters have produced a wOBA of .283. Too early to be all in, but late enough that adding him off the waiver-wire is fine to do.
Marcus Stroman is a solid, slightly boring, innings eater who isn’t getting enough offensive support to help out his record much at all. When you see a 4-9 mark you think the pitcher stinks. He really doesn’t. Over 16 outings Stroman has a 3.23 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.17 GB/FB ratio. Over his last eight outings he’s allowed more than three earned runs a single time while lasting at least five innings each outing. The strikeouts aren’t there, but if he’s dealt as expected in many circles, his outlook would improve.
Julio Teheran was ripped for six runs the last time out. His previous eight outings Teheran had allowed a total of seven runs. Yeah, truth. Over nine outings that’s 13 runs, 10 earned, leading to a 1.85 ERA. Even with the beatdown at the hand of the Mets, Teheran still has a 3.40 ERA on the year, just below the 3.63 mark that he owns for his career. Teheran continues to walk the line. He has a massive 4.43 BB/9 rate, but he’s not giving up many hits (.206 BAA with a .245 BABIP). He’s basically been the same guy for 47 starts now – fortunate given all the walks. Expect more leveling off as he’s a rotation filler-outer in mixed leagues.
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