When the typical NFL fan sits down to watch an NFL game, they want to see high scoring games, fast pace with few interruptions, and even fewer penalties.
It’s not an easy job for NFL officials. They go through years of training, studying, and calling games to then being tested with millions of eyes on them as they officiate some of the world’s best athletes all while forced to make a split decision in an instant.
Despite the total number of penalties trending down the past four seasons, they remain an integral part of the game and can often influence a game’s particular outcome. They can occur at any point during the game and we’ve started to see more and more controversial penalties happen towards the end of games in the fourth quarter, often directly impacting the final results.
Let’s see how penalties impacted the 2018 NFL season and if there are any key takeaways we can use to our advantage heading into 2019.
Most Penalized Teams and Players
The top-five most penalized teams last season were Kansas City (137), Denver (125), Jacksonville (121), Indianapolis (120), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (117).
The common thread? Three of the top-five teams here made the playoffs. Aggressive teams can sometimes get caught being too aggressive, but that playing style is what often drives their success.
Kansas City ranked second in false starts (27), defensive pass interference calls (15), defensive holding (16), and illegal blocks (10). They also led the league in most points scored en route to a 12-4 record. Well-disciplined teams and strong clock management has never been Andy Reid’s forte, but has it cost his squads? At times, sure, but only Bill Belichick has won more games among active NFL head coaches than Reid’s 207 career wins. It’s a risk/reward relationship when it comes to penalties and it looks like Reid has done a solid job teaching his guys when to toe the line.
No player had more penalties last season than Washington’s Morgan Moses. Moses had eight offensive holding calls, seven false starts, and one unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to pave the way with 14 total penalties incurred. Even more startling was that his teammate, Trent Williams, also had seven offensive holdings. The Washington offensive line was by far the worst offender in offensive holding calls may continue with its struggles with a rookie quarterback likely starting soon for them.
No player cost their team more penalty yards than Miami’s Minkah Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick had ten total penalties called against him last year, racking up 152 yards in damages. Next closest was Buffalo’s Phillip Gaines with 131 yards — on just three defensive pass interference calls! It was surprising going through this exercise that there weren’t many repeat offenders in deep pass interference calls that racked up a ton of penalty yardage.
Least Penalized Teams
The top-five least penalized teams last season were Tennessee (82), Minnesota (92), Carolina (92), New England (93), and New Orleans (94).
Amazingly another three from this subset made it to the playoffs. Are there conclusions that can be drawn here? Not really considering year over year penalty correlation is very poor.
What we can state is that dating back to 2009, teams have a win percentage of 0.552 when they have fewer penalties than their opponent. That number maxes out when a team’s opponent has four more penalties than them, raising the win total to 0.614.
Again, the risk/reward relationship with penalties is an intriguing one. Teams that have figured out when to push the envelope have generally fared well over the course of the season despite getting hit with penalties. Teams that abide by the rules and play disciplined football have also routinely found success advancing to the playoffs.
Despite the wishy-washy conclusion, penalties can still without a doubt change the outcome of a game. We saw this happen multiple times last season, including some impactful ones during the playoffs.
Biggest Impact Penalties
Sports Info Solutions recently did a fantastic piece on quantifying the impact of penalties. They compared all accepted penalties over the past three seasons and compared them to the expected points added (EPA) for each side of the ball.
Table from Sports Info Solutions – “Quantifying the Impact of Penalties“
Intuitively, these results makes sense. If you asked the common NFL fan what penalty they thought was most impactful, most would likely answer either some kind of pass interference (offense or defense) or offensive line holding/roughing the passer negating what was a big play for their respective side. The data collected by SIS not only confirms these as the most influential penalties over the course of the game, it also compares how impactful they are compared to lesser infractions.
Some of the most flagrant penalties — or missed penalties — from the 2019 season fell under this bucket and were influential in deciding the outcome of playoff games.
No-Call on pass interference during the Rams/Saints NFC Championship.
On 3rd-and-10 with less than two minutes to go in the game, Drew Brees threw a pass to receiver Tommylee Lewis near the sideline. Cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman launched himself helmet-to-helmet into Lewis before the ball arrived. Officials could’ve called it defensive pass interference or unnecessary roughness (helmet-to-helmet). They opted for neither, forcing the Saints to kick a field goal and give the Rams enough time to make a final game-winning drive to advance to the Super Bowl.
Dee Ford lining up offsides during the AFC Championship.
Charvarius Ward picked off a deflected pass off Rob Gronkowski’s hands, essentially sealing the win for the Chiefs and stamping their ticket to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, edge rusher Dee Ford lined up offsides on the play, giving the ball back to New England. The Patriots would then finish the drive with a touchdown and ultimately win the game in overtime.
Penalties — particularly those in the playoffs — can be detrimental to a franchise. Just ask any Saints fan. The NFL Owners elected to change the rules this offseason, allowing for both offensive and defensive pass interference, including non-calls, to be subject for review. Subjected to a trial basis for just the 2019 season, this could help negate any future controversial calls like the Rams/Saints outcome.
Penalties will continue to play their part in the NFL. It was interesting to see through this exercise that while some teams limit them, others encourage their players to play aggressive ball and are willing to take on the risk that comes with that mentality. Let’s just hope this new rule change can lead to fewer controversial finishes in the 2019-2020 season.
