When trying to forecast for players there are multiple factors that come into play. One thing I place a lot of emphasis on is volume (targets and touches). This gives you a pretty good idea of the type of role a player has in their offense. The system a player is a part of is also important because many times a good player in a bad system may not reach his ceiling, whereas a solid player may excel beyond expectations in a very good system. We see this often with the Patriots, players perform well in their system and once they leave, they typically underwhelm in their next team.
A metric that is very random, but makes a significant impact in fantasy production is touchdowns. Each time a player finds the end zone, you get six fantasy points. That being said, touchdowns are one of the most unpredictable things in football, making it difficult to project for these. Therefore what I like to do is take a look at a player’s role in the red zone to get an idea as to how often they find themselves in a position to succeed and potentially score.
Below I will go over last year’s rushing and receiving red zone stats, so that you can get an idea of which players were most used inside the 20. This could guide us in the right direction when looking for potential touchdown upside.
WIDE RECEIVER RED ZONE STATS
| Inside 20-yd line | Inside 10-yd line | |||||||||||||
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD | %Tgt | Tgt | Rec | Ctch% | Yds | TD | %Tgt | RZ Catch Rate | % of rec that = TD |
| Davante Adams | 31 | 16 | 51.61% | 149 | 12 | 41.90% | 8 | 6 | 75.00% | 36 | 6 | 30.80% | 52% | 75% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 29 | 16 | 55.17% | 99 | 5 | 30.50% | 11 | 7 | 63.64% | 13 | 3 | 28.20% | 55% | 31% |
| Michael Thomas | 29 | 24 | 82.76% | 158 | 7 | 29.60% | 14 | 12 | 85.71% | 48 | 6 | 29.80% | 83% | 29% |
| Zach Ertz | 27 | 16 | 59.26% | 113 | 7 | 31.40% | 10 | 7 | 70.00% | 35 | 5 | 27.00% | 59% | 44% |
| Alvin Kamara | 26 | 21 | 80.77% | 128 | 3 | 26.50% | 8 | 7 | 87.50% | 30 | 2 | 17.00% | 81% | 14% |
| Travis Kelce | 26 | 17 | 65.38% | 135 | 9 | 25.20% | 12 | 7 | 58.33% | 32 | 5 | 25.50% | 65% | 53% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 25 | 15 | 60.00% | 140 | 8 | 31.60% | 15 | 7 | 46.67% | 41 | 4 | 35.70% | 60% | 53% |
| Antonio Brown | 24 | 11 | 45.83% | 80 | 6 | 25.30% | 8 | 4 | 50.00% | 19 | 4 | 20.50% | 46% | 55% |
| James White | 22 | 16 | 72.73% | 117 | 7 | 25.00% | 9 | 4 | 44.44% | 23 | 4 | 22.50% | 73% | 44% |
| Eric Ebron | 21 | 12 | 57.14% | 135 | 11 | 20.80% | 6 | 4 | 66.67% | 22 | 4 | 13.60% | 57% | 92% |
| Odell Beckham | 20 | 7 | 35.00% | 54 | 5 | 23.30% | 8 | 4 | 50.00% | 20 | 4 | 22.20% | 35% | 71% |
| Julian Edelman | 20 | 14 | 70.00% | 106 | 4 | 22.70% | 11 | 6 | 54.55% | 28 | 3 | 27.50% | 70% | 29% |
| Adam Thielen | 20 | 15 | 75.00% | 90 | 6 | 27.80% | 8 | 5 | 62.50% | 17 | 4 | 26.70% | 75% | 40% |
| Todd Gurley | 19 | 9 | 47.37% | 78 | 3 | 18.80% | 8 | 2 | 25.00% | 16 | 1 | 16.00% | 47% | 33% |
| George Kittle | 19 | 10 | 52.63% | 71 | 2 | 25.30% | 8 | 3 | 37.50% | 22 | 2 | 26.70% | 53% | 20% |
| Jarvis Landry | 19 | 10 | 52.63% | 62 | 2 | 32.20% | 7 | 4 | 57.14% | 13 | 1 | 28.00% | 53% | 20% |
| Sterling Shepard | 19 | 9 | 47.37% | 35 | 4 | 22.10% | 8 | 5 | 62.50% | 17 | 4 | 22.20% | 47% | 44% |
| Stefon Diggs | 18 | 12 | 66.67% | 58 | 6 | 25.00% | 8 | 6 | 75.00% | 18 | 5 | 26.70% | 67% | 50% |
| Brandin Cooks | 17 | 15 | 88.24% | 114 | 4 | 16.80% | 8 | 6 | 75.00% | 21 | 2 | 16.00% | 88% | 27% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 17 | 12 | 70.59% | 70 | 2 | 23.90% | 6 | 4 | 66.67% | 18 | 1 | 20.00% | 71% | 17% |
| T.Y. Hilton | 17 | 7 | 41.18% | 47 | 5 | 16.80% | 10 | 4 | 40.00% | 14 | 4 | 22.70% | 41% | 71% |
| Julio Jones | 17 | 10 | 58.82% | 100 | 5 | 21.80% | 7 | 3 | 42.86% | 3 | 2 | 16.70% | 59% | 50% |
| Zay Jones | 17 | 7 | 41.18% | 79 | 5 | 39.50% | 4 | 2 | 50.00% | 12 | 1 | 33.30% | 41% | 71% |
| Chris Godwin | 16 | 6 | 37.50% | 62 | 6 | 18.20% | 11 | 4 | 36.36% | 30 | 4 | 30.60% | 38% | 100% |
| Tyreek Hill | 16 | 10 | 62.50% | 51 | 5 | 15.50% | 7 | 4 | 57.14% | 6 | 3 | 14.90% | 63% | 50% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 14 | 87.50% | 90 | 5 | 22.90% | 6 | 6 | 100.00% | 20 | 3 | 17.60% | 88% | 36% |
| Keenan Allen | 15 | 11 | 73.33% | 102 | 6 | 20.80% | 7 | 4 | 57.14% | 27 | 3 | 18.40% | 73% | 55% |
| Saquon Barkley | 15 | 11 | 73.33% | 69 | 3 | 17.40% | 5 | 3 | 60.00% | 8 | 1 | 13.90% | 73% | 27% |
| John Brown | 15 | 5 | 33.33% | 46 | 3 | 21.10% | 7 | 2 | 28.57% | 16 | 2 | 21.20% | 33% | 60% |
| Jared Cook | 15 | 10 | 66.67% | 69 | 3 | 23.40% | 11 | 7 | 63.64% | 31 | 2 | 26.80% | 67% | 30% |
| Corey Davis | 15 | 6 | 40.00% | 47 | 2 | 25.40% | 9 | 2 | 22.22% | 11 | 1 | 34.60% | 40% | 33% |
| Kenny Golladay | 15 | 5 | 33.33% | 38 | 4 | 20.50% | 6 | 3 | 50.00% | 14 | 3 | 20.70% | 33% | 80% |
| Kyle Rudolph | 15 | 8 | 53.33% | 42 | 3 | 20.80% | 8 | 2 | 25.00% | 8 | 2 | 26.70% | 53% | 38% |
| Trey Burton | 14 | 11 | 78.57% | 72 | 5 | 18.40% | 7 | 6 | 85.71% | 16 | 3 | 18.40% | 79% | 45% |
| Tarik Cohen | 14 | 11 | 78.57% | 76 | 4 | 18.40% | 7 | 4 | 57.14% | 25 | 2 | 18.40% | 79% | 36% |
Above are the top 35 targeted players in the red zone from the 2018 season. This should paint a picture as to how much a player is utilized in scoring situation.
Davante Adams led all players in red zone targets with 31. He accounted for 42 percent of the red zone targets in Green Bay and converted 75 percent of his catches into touchdowns, needless to say he was very efficient in the red zone. He finished last season with 13 touchdowns (tied for second most) and scored all but one of those inside the 20-yard line. Considering that he is Aaron Rodger’s go-to receiver, chances are he will once again be busy in this field position.
We now know that over 50 percent of the red zone targets in New Orleans last season went to Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, as they combined for 55 targets. That said, neither player was extremely efficient in this field position because as you can see, neither of the two converted over 29 percent of their catches for touchdowns. If they receive similar volume inside the 20-yard line this season, one can say that there is potential for positive regression in the touchdown department.
George Kittle really stands out to me here because he is being drafted very high based on his numbers last season, but was very inefficient in the red zone. I also looked backed at his 2017 numbers and came up with the same conclusion. He has 35 career red zone targets, catching 54 percent of those, but scoring in just 21 percent of his catches.
Something that stood out to me while looking at this chart is that Chris Godwin led all Tampa Bay pass catchers in red zone targets with 16, which was good for 18.2 percent of the target share inside the 20. Adam Humprhies and DeSean Jackson, who are no longer with the team, combined for 21 percent of the red zone targets for the Bucs. This should be distributed among the pass catchers and puts Godwin in a position to potentially receive some more looks in this field position.
Odell Beckham received 23.3 percent of the red zone targets for the Giants last season and he is no longer with the team. Sterling Shepard surprisingly saw one fewer target than Beckham inside the 20 and could get a boost in that department as well this year. Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram should both also benefit from Beckham’s departure. It’s worth noting that Engram has been very efficient inside the 20 throughout his first two seasons in the league, converting 82 percent of his receptions into touchdowns.
RUNNING BACK RED ZONE STATS
| Inside 20-yd line | Inside 10-yd line | Inside 5-yd line | ||||||||||
| Player | Att | Yds | TD | %Rush | Att | Yds | TD | %Rush | Att | Yds | TD | %Rush |
| Todd Gurley | 64 | 204 | 17 | 64.60% | 36 | 79 | 14 | 70.60% | 18 | 12 | 9 | 72.00% |
| Alvin Kamara | 51 | 174 | 13 | 46.40% | 34 | 89 | 11 | 48.60% | 13 | 14 | 8 | 39.40% |
| Saquon Barkley | 50 | 88 | 7 | 69.40% | 30 | 44 | 6 | 75.00% | 16 | 9 | 5 | 80.00% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 46 | 134 | 7 | 57.50% | 29 | 54 | 6 | 63.00% | 12 | 14 | 6 | 57.10% |
| Derrick Henry | 43 | 168 | 10 | 54.40% | 22 | 37 | 9 | 55.00% | 13 | 10 | 8 | 56.50% |
| Sony Michel | 42 | 103 | 5 | 47.70% | 27 | 48 | 5 | 48.20% | 12 | 12 | 4 | 41.40% |
| Chris Carson | 41 | 108 | 9 | 50.60% | 28 | 53 | 9 | 66.70% | 13 | 11 | 6 | 86.70% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 39 | 105 | 5 | 59.10% | 22 | 34 | 3 | 59.50% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 50.00% |
| Peyton Barber | 37 | 83 | 5 | 53.60% | 23 | 41 | 5 | 63.90% | 12 | 9 | 4 | 75.00% |
| Lamar Jackson | 37 | 108 | 4 | 38.10% | 15 | 16 | 3 | 32.60% | 4 | -5 | 1 | 20.00% |
| Marlon Mack | 36 | 118 | 9 | 48.60% | 22 | 50 | 8 | 57.90% | 12 | 8 | 6 | 66.70% |
| Jordan Howard | 35 | 107 | 9 | 56.50% | 20 | 51 | 8 | 60.60% | 11 | 10 | 6 | 68.80% |
| James Conner | 34 | 90 | 10 | 68.00% | 23 | 39 | 9 | 71.90% | 15 | 13 | 9 | 68.20% |
| Joe Mixon | 32 | 82 | 8 | 66.70% | 21 | 45 | 7 | 75.00% | 12 | 11 | 6 | 75.00% |
| Lamar Miller | 31 | 56 | 4 | 46.30% | 13 | 31 | 4 | 38.20% | 5 | 0 | 2 | 35.70% |
| Doug Martin | 31 | 91 | 3 | 44.30% | 17 | 27 | 3 | 44.70% | 11 | 7 | 3 | 57.90% |
| Adrian Peterson | 31 | 55 | 5 | 56.40% | 13 | 23 | 5 | 59.10% | 7 | 9 | 4 | 50.00% |
| David Johnson | 29 | 78 | 7 | 74.40% | 16 | 30 | 7 | 76.20% | 9 | 9 | 6 | 100.00% |
| Mark Ingram | 28 | 99 | 6 | 25.50% | 19 | 26 | 4 | 27.10% | 12 | 9 | 4 | 36.40% |
| Kareem Hunt | 27 | 69 | 7 | 37.50% | 22 | 68 | 7 | 44.00% | 11 | 18 | 6 | 37.90% |
| Phillip Lindsay | 26 | 74 | 6 | 49.10% | 13 | 23 | 6 | 48.10% | 6 | 12 | 5 | 42.90% |
| Nick Chubb | 26 | 57 | 5 | 45.60% | 18 | 35 | 5 | 48.60% | 7 | 12 | 5 | 33.30% |
| LeGarrette Blount | 26 | 27 | 5 | 39.40% | 17 | 19 | 5 | 48.60% | 11 | 7 | 5 | 68.80% |
| Alfred Morris | 26 | 35 | 2 | 34.20% | 14 | 1 | 2 | 40.00% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 44.40% |
| Melvin Gordon | 25 | 135 | 8 | 40.30% | 10 | 39 | 5 | 37.00% | 4 | 9 | 3 | 28.60% |
| Matt Breida | 23 | 62 | 2 | 30.30% | 12 | 24 | 2 | 34.30% | 6 | 5 | 2 | 33.30% |
| Dion Lewis | 23 | 41 | 1 | 29.10% | 10 | 10 | 1 | 25.00% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21.70% |
| Carlos Hyde | 23 | 39 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Nyheim Hines | 22 | 54 | 2 | 29.70% | 6 | 15 | 2 | 15.80% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16.70% |
| LeSean McCoy | 22 | 46 | 2 | 32.40% | 10 | 21 | 2 | 33.30% | 4 | -4 | 1 | 28.60% |
| Leonard Fournette | 22 | 40 | 5 | 43.10% | 14 | 27 | 5 | 51.90% | 10 | 12 | 4 | 71.40% |
| Latavius Murray | 22 | 50 | 4 | 46.80% | 8 | 16 | 2 | 40.00% | 3 | 4 | 2 | 37.50% |
| Mike Davis | 21 | 93 | 4 | 25.90% | 8 | 24 | 2 | 19.00% | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13.30% |
| Josh Allen | 21 | 95 | 7 | 30.90% | 11 | 30 | 5 | 36.70% | 5 | 2 | 3 | 35.70% |
| James White | 21 | 30 | 3 | 23.90% | 15 | 13 | 3 | 26.80% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 27.60% |
The chart above displays the top 35 players with rush attempts inside the red zone.
Todd Gurley led the league with 64 rush attempts inside the red zone and also received 19 targets, combining for a total of 83 touches in this field position. There is a reason why he led all running backs in touchdowns last season with 21, scoring 20 of his touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. If it was not for all of the recent news regarding Gurley about his health and workload expected this upcoming season, he would likely be a top five pick this season. There is no denying that if the volume is there, he will be put in plenty of situations to score touchdowns. The Rams did attempt the most red zone scoring attempts in 2018.
A running back I am very high on this year is Marlon Mack. Not only is he coming off of a strong season, but I like what I am seeing as far as his red zone numbers are concerned. He received nearly 50 percent of the rush attempts in the red zone and 66.7 percent of the carries inside the 5-yard line, punching in 50 percent of them. The Colts were fourth in the league in red zone scoring attempts in 2018 and should once again be an offense that puts themselves in a situation to score touchdowns in 2019. The offensive line remains strong and with Andrew Luck under center, there is no reason to believe otherwise.
James White really pops out at me. Not only did he receive 21 red zone carries, which was good for 23.9 percent of the team’s red zone rush attempts, but he was also targeted 22 times in the red zone (25 percent of the target share). He was very efficient as a pass catcher in this field position, converting 44 percent of his receptions for touchdowns. Even if he is not New England’s every down back, White’s role in the passing game and inside the 20-yard line gives him a strong fantasy floor.
TEAM RED ZONE SCORING ATTEMPTS PER GAME
|
Rank |
Team | 2018 Scoring Attempts Per game |
| 1 | LA Rams | 4.6 |
| 2 | Kansas City | 4.3 |
| 3 | New Orleans | 4.2 |
| 4 | Indianapolis | 3.9 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay | 3.8 |
| 6 | New England | 3.7 |
| 7 | Houston | 3.6 |
| 8 | Carolina | 3.6 |
| 9 | Baltimore | 3.6 |
| 10 | Seattle | 3.4 |
| 11 | Philadelphia | 3.4 |
| 12 | NY Giants | 3.4 |
| 13 | Chicago | 3.4 |
| 14 | LA Chargers | 3.3 |
| 15 | San Francisco | 3.2 |
| 16 | Minnesota | 3.1 |
| 17 | Atlanta | 3.1 |
| 18 | Dallas | 3.1 |
| 19 | Pittsburgh | 3.1 |
| 20 | Detroit | 3.1 |
| 21 | Cleveland | 3 |
| 22 | Green Bay | 2.9 |
| 23 | Tennessee | 2.9 |
| 24 | Cincinnati | 2.8 |
| 25 | NY Jets | 2.8 |
| 26 | Denver | 2.8 |
| 27 | Oakland | 2.7 |
| 28 | Washington | 2.5 |
| 29 | Buffalo | 2.3 |
| 30 | Jacksonville | 2.1 |
| 31 | Miami | 1.9 |
| 32 | Arizona | 1.8 |
The chart above displays the scoring attempts per game by team. This should give you an idea of how many times a team was put in a situation to score points. Targeting players from these teams who have a solidified role in this field position could be a way to put your fantasy team in a better position to score touchdowns. Although they are not predictable, you might be able to increase your odds by considering these numbers.
As I have mentioned a couple of times in this article. Predicting touchdowns is almost impossible, but that does not mean that we cannot try our best at choosing players in good situations with chances to score touchdowns. This is why I like to dig into the red zone numbers as I prep for my drafts and forecast players. Keep in mind, these numbers are from 2018, so make sure you are up to date with personnel and coaching changes when making your decisions. I pointed out a couple of situations above where a player who was heavily involved in the red zone is no longer with that team and how it can affect the distribution in that part of the field. The same can be said for offenses with new players on them that may demand a lot of attention inside the 20-yard line. You can read more on players in new teams in the Same Faces In New Places article that’s part of our Draft Guide.
Make sure to stop by our chat room with any questions and you can always reach out to me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal. Good luck my Fantasy Guru fam!
