Is Chase Anderson worth an add? What about the Giants’ Tyler Beede? Is Berrios an ace? Sonny Gray is quietly piling up innings. What’s the deal with Elieser Hernandez of the Marlins? Lucchesi and Means, two young arms piling up lots of solid innings. Mikolas and Miley. Two M’s that don’t dominate, but that can carve up a lineup when they are on. One has been more on than the other. Paxton and Peacock. Which P is a better own at the moment? Porcello started slowly, but he’s really settled in for the Sox. Finally, two New York righties are going in opposite directions in Tanaka and Wheeler.
Chase Anderson has allowed nine runs his last three outings. Doesn’t sound awful on the surface, but when you consider that he allowed four homers and lasted just 14 innings in those three, you start to see the problem. Anderson is not a reliable piece. Sorry.
Tyler Beede had a strong outing on the road against the Dodgers as he allowed one run over six innings. Still, he walked five batter. Five. Through 28.1 innings, he’s allowed 32 hits, has walked 22 batters and allowed 1.91 homers per nine. Despite that strong effort, the truth follows. At this point, Beede would have the most success if he was used out of the bullpen.
Jose Berrios has allowed a single earned run in each of his last three starts. His last five starts, he’s allowed one earned run four times while throwing at least six innings each time out. For those folks who argued with me during the preseason, mostly folks inside the industry… Berrios is a star. Berrios is 8-3 with a 2.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, an 8.66 K/9 rate and 5.53 K/BB ratio.
Catch and release. The way it should be.
Sonny Gray has made 9-straight starts without allowing more than three earned runs. In that time, he owns a 3.83 ERA, a bit higher than ideal, but playable when you consider that he has 48 punchouts in the 47 innings. One word of caution though. Gray has a 4.02 walk rate per nine in that time, and that’s been an issue for him the last few years – the walk. He’s only walked seven guys his last four starts, and if he maintains that level, success is gonna follow.
Elieser Hernandez or Jordan Yamamoto will lose their rotation spot when Caleb Smith returns in short order. Hernandez has made two starts this season and he’s allowed five runs (four earned) over 11.2 innings. He’s allowed only a homer and one walk versus 13 walks. He’s looked pretty sharp.
Would you really pay for one of these jerseys?
Joey Lucchesi has pretty quietly been darn effective for the Padres. Over his last seven outings he’s punched out 42 batters in 43.1 innings as he’s posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He’s dominated lefties holding them to a .237 wOBA which is built on a sickly .191/.247/.294 slash line. Through 209.1 career innings, he’s won 14 games with 223 punchouts and a 1.22 WHIP with a 3.96 ERA. He hasn’t been great, but he’s been really, really good. He’s usable in all formats.
John Means has been an out of nowhere performer in his rookie season. We keep waiting for the pull back, but as the innings pile up, the results are actually improving. Means has allowed just one homer in four outings, and in that time it’s just five earned runs allowed to drop his ERA to 2.67. The last time he didn’t last five innings as a started was back in April, the 9th to be exact. His 10.2 percent swinging strike rate isn’t suggestive of his 7.51 K/9 rate improving, and that 59 percent first pitch strike rate is two percent below the league average and a concern for his ratios moving forward.
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Miles Mikolas rebounded from a bad effort and a forearm hit by a batted ball, to toss six scoreless innings against the Marlins. It was the Marlins, but he still looked sharp. He’s still throwing darts, the 1.60 BB/9 rate is smoking, but he isn’t missing bats with 4-straight outings of four punchouts or less. He continues to sport some strange splits too. While it’s impossible at this point to trust him on the road (7.76 ERA, .429 wOBA), his work at home (2.55 ERA, .252 wOBA) still suggests that he’s pretty much a sure thing when he’s wearing the home whites.
Crack, at school?
Follow me here. Wade Miley has made 15-starts for the Astros leading to a 3.30 ERA. Not just that, in 15-outings he’s allowed three or fewer runs 14 times (the one miss was four runs). He’s been remarkably consistent from outing to outing. He’s continuing to rely on the cutter, he’s throwing the pitch 49 percent of the time, and interestingly his wOBA on the pitch was .322 which is actually well above the .254 mark he posted last season and the .292 career rate he owns. Is it possible that he could actually see some improvement moving forward? I just can’t say yes, despite the numbers.
James Paxton has a 3.93 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 11 ineffective outings. He’s struck out a massive 11.62 batters per nine, but he continues to struggle to stay on the field, and his 3.44 batters walked per nine would be more than a full point above his rate the last three years. Further, he’s averaged just 5.0 innings per outing, and just once in six outings has he gone six innings. Additionally, only once in five outings has he thrown more than 4.2 innings. We’re in the same spot as always with Paxton, which means if he’s on your team you almost certainly overpaid.
Is this you on the phone?
Brad Peacock has a punchout per inning with a 2.84 BB/9 mark and a 1.12 WHIP over 13 outings (15 starts). Since the start of the 2016 season, Peacock has thrown 304.2 innings with a 1.16 WHIP. He’s really effective. He’s allowed eight runs and four homers his last two outings, and that’s a bit concerning given the workload. Peacock threw 132 innings in 2017, but last season he made only one start throwing 65 frames. He’s already passed that mark this season at 76 innings. The last time he threw 150-innings in a season was 2013, so there has to be some thought given to the fact that that there could be some fatigue at the moment.
Rick Porcello is only 5-6 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Toss in a 7.60 K/9 rate and Porcello has performed at a level below league average. However, after being blasted his first three outings, he’s been much more effective. Over his last 12 outings, Porcello is 5-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, so don’t let the overall numbers dissuade you from deploying Porcello who has allowed just two homers in five outings and just three free passes in four outings.
Masahiro Tanaka has allowed one run over 22 innings against the Rays, and the point that he dominates them was driven home Monday night as Tanaka tossed a nine innings shutout against them allowing just two hits and one walk while punching out 10 batters. That’s 4-of-7 outings for Tanaka of 0/1 runs allowed, and overall he owns a 3.23 ERA. His K/9 rate is down a batter from the last two seasons at 8.22 per nine, but he’s also walking less than two batters per nine which has allowed him to post an impressive 4.20 K/BB ratio, though that would be a career worst (career 4.90). Tanaka also has a 1.49 GB/FB ratio, same as the last four years, as he continues to generate tons of outs. He’s throwing a strike on that first pitch a remarkable 70 percent of the time, which is the best mark out of the 80 men who qualify for the ERA title. He continues to perform at a level that will allow him to generate an effort greatly in excess of his draft day cost.
Zack Wheeler, much like his teammate Noah Syndergaard, just cannot put it together. Wheeler has been battered the last 10.2 innings for 20 hits and 14 runs. The only positive is that just nine of the runs are earned. Wheeler has also permitted a massive total of seven homers his last four starts, and over his last seven outings he’s allowed at least one homer with 11 in total. His SIERA (4.00) and xFIP (3.92) are virtually identical with his career marks (3.97 and 3.87), but where as a few weeks ago we were saying ‘he’s pitching better than the surface numbers indicate’ but now we’re saying ‘his performance has been earned.’
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
