FGE

From the Gut – Power

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Power. Do your fantasy teams have enough of it? Home runs is a category that many of my fantasy teams seem to be struggling with. I’d like to solely blame Giancarlo Stanton for getting hurt in the first week of the season but the only one I can blame is myself for not seeing the massive power outbursts of the likes of Josh Bell, Ketel Marte and Jorge Soler. I’m mostly being sarcastic here as all three of them burst onto the scene inexplicably, and those along for the ride are ecstatic. The bottom line here is that we may have set our goals for the HR category too low following a big dip in MLB homers from a record-breaking 2017 (6,105) to last season’s 5,585. Most of us did expect an uptick from last season, but perhaps not all the way to this stratosphere. Through June 18 (45 percent of the season), we’re already at almost 3,000 home runs league wide which is on pace to match or exceed that monster total from 2017. The season home run record prior to 2017 was back in the steroid era (5,693 in the year 2000).

Are baseballs around the league juiced? Probably. Should it affect the way we attack FAAB and set lineups going forward? Absolutely. In roto leagues, if you’re lucky enough to have an offense oozing with power hitters and are in the top-third of your category standings in HR and RBI, you’re in a fantastic position. For those of us lagging behind, there are ways to address this. Trades are the best way, first and foremost. But those who play in non-trade leagues like NFBC are hamstrung and have to a) bench punchless R/SB types for mediocre, possibly average-killing hitters with power upside, b) be more aggressive in FAAB looking for low-hanging power fruit and c) stream mediocre hitters with power upside weekly for our final roster slots based on upcoming matchups/opponents and ballparks. Just because you’re 10th out of 12 teams in the HR roto category or are consistently getting thrashed in that H2H category, doesn’t mean we can’t fix it with over half the season left to play.

Taking a quick look at the home run leaders through June 18 over the last couple seasons below, you’ll note that there are already 13 hitters who have smashed at least 20 homers (Yelich, Alonso, Bellinger, Renfroe, Encarnacion, Moustakas, Trout, Bregman, Marte, Freeman, Bell, Soler, Sanchez). Compare that to this point in time last season where only four (Trout, Martinez, Ramirez, Davis) had at least 20. Furthermore, 23 hitters had at least 15 homers at this point last season, compared to 51 guys who have the same amount this season. There are already over 500 home runs hit at this point in the season (2,953) than there were at this point last season (2,439).

Of the 51 batters with at least 15 home runs, 19 of them (37%) were either available after the top 150 overall ADP selections in drafts or had been snagged off FAAB/waivers (Dan Vogelbach, Brandon Lowe).

2019 HR Leaders through June 18

Name   Team PA HR R RBI BB% K% ISO
Christian Yelich Brewers 292 26 56 57 14.00% 17.50% 0.393
Peter Alonso Mets 301 24 46 57 9.00% 25.90% 0.350
Cody Bellinger Dodgers 306 23 56 58 15.00% 14.70% 0.344
Hunter Renfroe Padres 231 23 33 43 6.90% 26.80% 0.383
Edwin Encarnacion Yankees 297 22 49 50 13.80% 18.90% 0.293
Mike Moustakas Brewers 286 21 46 45 8.00% 17.80% 0.302
Mike Trout Angels 312 20 57 49 20.80% 17.30% 0.336
Alex Bregman Astros 321 20 48 50 17.10% 13.10% 0.272
Ketel Marte Diamondbacks 321 20 50 50 7.20% 15.30% 0.276
Freddie Freeman Braves 331 20 56 53 11.80% 16.90% 0.285
Josh Bell Pirates 312 20 53 66 9.90% 20.50% 0.337
Gary Sanchez Yankees 222 20 32 45 8.60% 26.10% 0.337
Jorge Soler Royals 299 20 38 52 7.00% 28.80% 0.282
Anthony Rizzo Cubs 301 19 45 51 11.30% 13.60% 0.276
Joc Pederson Dodgers 231 19 43 34 10.00% 19.50% 0.335
Eddie Rosario Twins 295 19 48 52 4.70% 14.20% 0.254
Jay Bruce Phillies 225 19 36 41 8.00% 24.90% 0.343
Franmil Reyes Padres 243 19 30 33 7.40% 28.00% 0.290
Nolan Arenado Rockies 314 18 54 60 8.60% 11.80% 0.267
Max Kepler Twins 290 18 49 49 11.40% 15.50% 0.287
Derek Dietrich Reds 192 18 29 39 9.90% 21.40% 0.370
Marcell Ozuna Cardinals 292 18 49 56 9.20% 21.60% 0.255
Joey Gallo Rangers 214 17 41 41 19.60% 35.50% 0.376
Trevor Story Rockies 325 17 65 48 8.30% 26.50% 0.256
Ronald Acuna Jr. Braves 333 17 50 49 9.30% 23.70% 0.215
Max Muncy Dodgers 287 17 45 45 14.30% 24.00% 0.263
George Springer Astros 216 17 41 43 11.60% 20.80% 0.335
Javier Baez Cubs 304 17 45 46 5.30% 30.30% 0.254
Eduardo Escobar Diamondbacks 319 17 47 58 7.50% 20.70% 0.271
Daniel Vogelbach Mariners 269 17 41 40 18.60% 22.30% 0.276
Luke Voit Yankees 313 17 47 46 14.70% 25.20% 0.238
Jose Abreu White Sox 304 17 36 54 5.60% 23.40% 0.249
Anthony Rendon Nationals 246 16 52 50 12.20% 15.90% 0.340
Matt Chapman Athletics 319 16 46 37 10.30% 19.10% 0.246
Charlie Blackmon Rockies 270 16 51 47 5.60% 17.00% 0.313
Trey Mancini Orioles 304 16 50 35 7.60% 19.40% 0.254
J.D. Martinez Red Sox 291 16 42 40 10.30% 18.90% 0.253
Kole Calhoun Angels 289 16 43 38 11.10% 21.50% 0.255
Kyle Schwarber Cubs 276 16 37 34 12.30% 27.50% 0.246
Khris Davis Athletics 248 16 33 40 7.70% 26.20% 0.233
Renato Nunez Orioles 274 16 33 38 5.50% 24.80% 0.235
Kris Bryant Cubs 302 15 56 38 12.90% 18.20% 0.262
Yasmani Grandal Brewers 273 15 35 40 14.70% 20.50% 0.257
Brandon Lowe Rays 261 15 36 44 6.50% 34.10% 0.259
Tommy La Stella Angels 263 15 43 40 6.80% 8.40% 0.215
Gleyber Torres Yankees 281 15 42 36 8.50% 23.10% 0.231
Hunter Pence Rangers 215 15 44 48 7.90% 21.90% 0.314
Rhys Hoskins Phillies 306 15 38 49 16.00% 24.20% 0.251
Mitch Haniger Mariners 283 15 46 32 10.60% 28.60% 0.244
C.J. Cron Twins 265 15 32 47 7.50% 20.40% 0.256
Eugenio Suarez Reds 297 15 34 43 10.10% 25.30% 0.223

A few notes on some of the current HR leaders:

  • The only two among the 51 home run leaders with higher walk rates than strikeout rates are Mike Trout and Alex Bregman. Carlos Santana sits just outside that list as he currently has 14 dingers and has averaged 24 over his eight-year big league career. He is among the league leaders in walk rate almost every season and the fact that his ISO is above .200 for the first time since his 34-HR season three years ago is a great sign going forward. So is his 47% hard hit rate which is currently the best mark of his career as his average mark is 33%.
  • Pete Alonso‘s .470 ISO against left-handed pitching is truly of epic proportions. Granted, it’s just a sample of less than 50 at-bats. Only two players in the last 20 years have averaged ISO’s over .300 against LHP (Barry Bonds – .365, Trevor Story – .315). Alonso is one of only 20 hitters with a hard hit rate over 47% this season and ranks seventh in Statcast’s Barrels-per-PA% metric. Currently second in homers in all of baseball behind Yelich, he’s the guy I’d put money on to lead the league in home runs this season.
  • Tommy La Stella looks like the one guy who doesn’t belong, but those 15 homers happened and can’t be taken away. His 6.8% walk rate is among the lowest of these top 49 but the strikeout rate of 8.4% is something special and his amazing plate patience is something that we’ve only seen in the likes of Andrelton Simmons and MIchael Brantley – the only two hitters with strikeout rates under 11 percent over the last two seasons combined. Though La Stella has crushed just three dingers in his last 23 games (12 in 44 games prior), his hard hit rate and ISO haven’t dipped all that much over the past month. I’d expect another 10 to 12 homers out of him the rest of the season but would ideally be looking to move him in a trade after an upcoming homer barrage (that owners hope will come).

 

2018 HR Leaders through June 18

Name Team PA  HR   R RBI BB% K% ISO
Mike Trout Angels 323 23 60 46 19.20% 18.60% 0.355
J.D. Martinez Red Sox 294 22 46 55 10.20% 23.80% 0.319
Jose Ramirez Indians 314 21 47 47 13.40% 11.50% 0.315
Khris Davis Athletics 271 20 39 49 8.50% 26.60% 0.301
Bryce Harper Nationals 305 19 41 43 17.00% 23.60% 0.257
Mookie Betts Red Sox 241 18 55 38 11.20% 12.90% 0.359
Aaron Judge Yankees 306 18 49 46 16.30% 30.70% 0.283
Manny Machado Orioles 302 18 33 53 10.30% 14.60% 0.257
Joey Gallo Rangers 290 18 36 42 10.70% 37.60% 0.250
Nelson Cruz Mariners 248 17 25 40 8.10% 18.50% 0.272
Francisco Lindor Indians 332 16 54 38 9.00% 18.40% 0.242
Eddie Rosario Twins 288 16 50 46 5.60% 16.70% 0.258
Ozzie Albies Braves 326 16 53 41 5.20% 17.50% 0.241
Mitch Haniger Mariners 300 16 36 53 11.30% 22.70% 0.242
Justin Upton Angels 305 16 40 43 10.80% 27.50% 0.213
Giancarlo Stanton Yankees 301 16 42 39 8.60% 31.60% 0.233
Edwin Encarnacion Indians 267 16 33 41 8.60% 25.80% 0.233
Freddie Freeman Braves 316 15 46 49 13.30% 16.80% 0.248
Paul Goldschmidt Diamondbacks 309 15 50 37 12.90% 28.80% 0.258
Trevor Story Rockies 307 15 38 54 9.10% 26.40% 0.257
Christian Villanueva Padres 218 15 27 36 6.90% 29.80% 0.268
C.J. Cron Rays 300 15 37 36 6.30% 27.00% 0.207
Yangervis Solarte Blue Jays 295 15 38 41 6.80% 13.90% 0.221

 

Looking back at the 2018 HR leaderboard on June 18 is interesting considering how many from the final leaderboard weren’t on this list. Here are a few who were not among the top 30 at that point who ended up hitting 20 or more home runs from June 19 on:

  • Christian Yelich – 27
  • Matt Carpenter – 25
  • Rhys Hoskins – 24
  • Stephen Piscotty – 23
  • Hunter Renfroe – 23
  • Max Muncy – 22
  • Jesus Aguilar – 22
  • Alex Bregman – 21
  • Ronald Acuna – 21
  • Daniel Palka – 21

Khris Davis ended up keeping pace, leading the majors with 48 roundtrippers, as did J.D. Martinez and Joey Gallo – the only three guys to hit 40 or more last season. But this list is a good reminder of how much more of the season we have and how we still have surprises in store. Just because you’re down in HR/RBI doesn’t mean you’re out. Surely there’s another Palka owned in less than 10% of 12-team leagues right now ready to break out and give your squad a nice power boost. The Muncy Train was already starting to take off in May for fantasy managers who were woke. Piscotty was a pleasant surprise but not at all shocking since he’d flashed power back in his last healthy season (22 HR in 2016 with the Cardinals). Yangervis Solarte fell off hard after crushing 15 homers through June 18, ending up with just two more the rest of the season and eventually getting hurt. Christian Villanueva was another flash in the pan, hitting 15 of his 20 homers through the end of May.

Projecting Rest of Season

So who will be in this batch of hitters who smash 20 homers the rest of the way? Given no health issues, many of them will be guys already among the league leaders who will simply stay close to current pace. That includes the likes of Mike Trout, Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Hunter Renfroe, Khris Davis, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, J.D. Martinez.

As far as homers over the last calendar year (since June 18 last season), there are actually two hitters with more homers than Davis’ 44 – that’s Yelich (53) and Renfroe (46). Max Muncy impressively comes in sixth (39) and Acuna 10th (38).

We can look to the list of home run leaders over the past 30 days as well. Notice that Renfroe leads all with 12 over that span (five over the weekend in Coors), Dbacks’ Marte is second with 11 and in addition to the usual suspects like Trout and Alonso (10), there’s also Kyle Schwarber (10), Eloy Jimenez (nine) and Anthony Rendon (nine).

Rendon is one of my favorite rest-of-season mashers. I predicted his first 30-HR season back in March and he’s on pace with 16 so far despite missing 14 games. Rendon ranks fifth in hard hit rate (51.7%), fifth in Isolated Power (.340) and is second in percentage of balls hit greater than 95mph (55.8%), behind only Joey Gallo.

One current underperformer I’d expect to see an uptick across the board is Mookie Betts who currently sits with 12 homers after hitting at least 30 in two of his last three seasons. Expect Betts to get the Red Sox’ engine revving on his way back to 30 again this season.

The Yankees’ row of mashers could theoretically all crush 20-plus the rest of this season – Aaron Judge, Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion and Luke Voit. I’d target the hell out of any of these guys for a red hot summer.

Arlington is another good hitters’ park where we may consider buying low on Rougned Odor and his nine homers. Odor has crushed at least 30 bombs in each of his last two healthy seasons (18 in 129 games last season). Of course, Gallo is the primary target for pure power once he’s healthy and back in the lineup.

Last but not least, I’ll end this with a list of sluggers who currently have less than 20 homers who could easily end up with 30 or more this season (ranked by likelihood):

  • Giancarlo Stanton
  • Nelson Cruz
  • Matt Olson
  • Manny Machado
  • Bryce Harper
  • Juan Soto
  • Shohei Ohtani
  • Matt Carpenter
  • Domingo Santana
  • Vlad Guerrero Jr.
  • Austin Riley
  • Randall Grichuk
  • Nick Castellanos
  • Mitch Moreland

There will certainly be surprises in store for us in the second half of the season as there was with Yelich, Piscotty and others last season. Projecting rest-of-season homers can be a daunting and exhaustive task, but when you plug in all of the different components into your formula, you can find your gems and targets. Some of the things I look at:

  • Team Context: lineup slot, ballpark, schedule
  • Fangraphs data: ISO, hard hit rate, splits vs LH/RH
  • Statcast data: Barrels, Brls/PA%, Exit Velo, Launch Angle, Sweet Spot %
  • Historical: previous seasons’ power, current off pace sluggers/underperformers

It looks like we’re part of a historical season of power and you’ll have to have your share in order to be competitive in leagues and especially in competitions with an overall prize. Your current home run leaders won’t all be the guys at the top of the category come October. A Bell or Marte may fall while a Harper or Stanton will rise. The weather will warm up across the country significantly in the next two months so there’s plenty of opportunity to catch up in the power categories if we’re properly assessing and addressing our deficiencies. Those who feel safe in those categories need to continue to actively manage it as to not let the rest of us catch up.