Outside of a game-changing turnover for a touchdown, is there any better play than the deep ball?
It can flip the field in an instant, putting the offense from a punting situation to a scoring one. Some of the most iconic plays in NFL history are a result of deep passes being completed.
Not only do they stick with your memory, they also can greatly help your fantasy teams. Knowing which quarterbacks throw the deep ball accurately, voluminously, or even efficiently can help you out with your fantasy leagues.
While there are several sources for deep passes, they often have conflicting definitions of 15 yards vs 20 yards. For consistencies’ sake in this article, all data came from PFF and their definition of “deep passes” to mean 20-plus yards.
Let’s take a look at which quarterbacks were highly successful throwing the deep ball in 2018.
Accurate Deep Ball Throwers
Marcus Mariota (58.8% Completion Rate)
Last year there were 37 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. Of this subset, no quarterback had a higher deep completion percentage greater than Marcus Mariota. Mariota completed 58.8% of his passes that traveled at least 20-plus yards downfield. He also surprisingly led the league in dropped passes of that depth (six), making this 58.8% rate on the low end of his range of outcomes. Though Mariota rarely utilized the deep pass — just 10.3% of his passes went 20-plus yards — Mariota was highly efficient when picking up big yardage in chunks. New OC Arthur Smith should work on increasing Mariota’s deep passing rate considering how successful he was with it last year.
Drew Brees (52.7% Completion Rate)
Last year’s second-most accurate deep ball thrower was the Saints’ Drew Brees. Brees completed 52.7% of his deep dropbacks and actually doubled his deep completions compared to Mariota (28 to 14). Brees was helped by deep ball specialist Ted Ginn (37.9% deep target rate) and last year’s record-setter in catch rate, Michael Thomas. Like Mariota, Brees rarely relied on the deep ball last year (11.2% rate), but as his accuracy showed, it wasn’t due to lack of arm strength. Accuracy and heavy passing volume have always defined Brees and the Saints and that likely isn’t going to change next year either.
Baker Mayfield (51.4% Completion Rate)
A prolific deep ball passer at Oklahoma, Baker Mayfield took his 62.5% completion percentage on deep throws from his final season at college and translated that well to the NFL level. He was the third-most accurate deep ball thrower last season, often targeting Antonio Callaway (19 deep targets) and Rashard Higgins (13). Mayfield now has Odell Beckham Jr. as an added weapon this offseason, who can help stretch the field with his 4.43 speed. During his last three seasons in New York, 19.0% of Beckham’s targets went for 20-plus yards. This offense has big-time scoring potential entering 2019.
Volume Deep Ball Throwers
Patrick Mahomes (92 Deep Attempts)
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to many considering just how often Patrick Mahomes was throwing downfield to his playmakers that Mahomes would be the leading candidate here. Not only did he throw the most deep attempts last season, he also led all quarterbacks in deep yardage gained from passes that went 20-plus with 1,514 passing yards — more than 350 yards greater than the next closest. 15.9% of Mahomes pass attempts were labeled in the deep variety with him heavily targeting Tyreek Hill on nearly half of them (44.6%). It’ll be interesting to see how the Chiefs operate in 2019 if Hill’s suspension remains upheld.
Aaron Rodgers (91 Deep Attempts)
Falling just one deep pass attempt behind Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers finished second in the league in deep pass attempts in 2018. He also finished second in this category back in 2016 (nine games missed in 2017), so it’s something that we should be on the lookout for again next season provided he stays healthy. Davante Adams (34 deep targets) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (19) should be repeat customers in the deep target department making them ideal stacking options in bestball and DFS.
Ben Roethlisberger (87 Deep Attempts)
Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger finished 2018 third in deep attempts of 20-plus yards. It’ll be interesting to see how much the loss of Antonio Brown (36 deep targets) effects Roethlisberger’s downfield passing mentality. James Washington had 12 targets of 20-plus yards as a rookie (33.3% of his overall targets) and will be fighting for perimeter routes with Donte Moncrief and Diontae Johnson this year. Roethlisberger was one of the least accurate deep ball throwers last year (35.6%) ranking 30th out of the 37 qualifying throwers. He’ll need his new receivers to step up and bail him out in 2019.
Efficient Deep Ball Throwers
Drew Brees (128.6 QBR)
Buoyed by a 9-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio, Brees led all quarterbacks in highest QB Rating when attempting passes 20-plus yards downfield. His high accuracy (52.7%) and ability to consistently gain big plays made him one of the most efficient downfield throwers last season. On passes that went 20-plus yards directed specifically to Michael Thomas, the two were able to hook up on 7-of-9 targets for 246 yards and two touchdowns. Look for that connection to be one of the more profitable stacks in DFS once again — specifically in games played inside a dome.
Russell Wilson (128.1 QBR)
Russell Wilson finished just a hair behind Brees in terms of QB Rating on deep attempts at 128.1. His high QB Rating was mostly due to him tying for the league-lead in deep touchdowns (15). The highly publicized 158.3 QBR when throwing to Tyler Lockett shows up here in Wilson’s deep throwing. The two synced up on 14-of-18 deep throws for 520 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Only Antonio Brown had more deep receiving touchdowns (nine). Wilson now gets another year with David Moore (36.0% deep target rate) in addition to second rounder D.K. Metcalf to help blow the lid off opposing defenses. Despite being one of the most run-heavy squads in the league, the Seahawks certainly know how to make a deep passing attack entertaining.
Aaron Rodgers (124.0 QBR)
No surprise here that when Rodgers has a lot of volume in one specific part of his game, he often finds success with it. Rodgers’ 124.0 QB Rating on deep passes was the third highest in the league last season, with Dak Prescott (115.7) and Matt Ryan (113.9) rounding out the top-five. Rodgers had a lofty 15.2 percent of his passes travel at least 20 yards downfield last season, completing 41.8 percent of them. Davante Adams and MVS look like they’ll be the starting duo entering training camp, spelling another efficient season for Rodgers when targeting them downfield.
