The NFL is built upon what college football provides. Every year, there’s a focus on incoming rookies and players who are going to make an impact for their new teams, but where did those players come from? What did they look like as underclassmen in college? How productive were they? The goal of this article is to help provide analysis that will improve readers ability to identify NFL players who are still in college. Each week, there will be four players evaluated and given an NFL projected draft position based on their current historical indicators.
There are many tidbits and clues the NFL leaves behind pertaining to what they’re looking for in an NFL Draft prospect. The basic strength, speed and athleticism are factors in building a skill position player, but it’s clear there’s more to it than that. When reviewing the NFL Draft over the last two decades, there’s statistical trends and traits NFL teams look for before selecting players as well. This article, which highlights players not yet draft eligible, will highlight those factors.
THE PROSPECTS
J.J. Taylor (RB, Arizona)
Of All the RBs who had 1,000 or more rushing yards in division one college football in 2018, Taylor could be the least talked about. After growing into a starter role in 2017, producing 896 yards from scrimmage, Taylor almost doubled that in 2018, posting 1,567 yards from scrimmage in his red-shirt Sophomore season. Taylor is small, it’s the first thing you’ll notice when watching him. Listed at 5 foot 6 and 184 pounds, there’s a small frame to work with. The second thing to notice is Taylor jumping over defenders and carrying a featured workload. Taylor doesn’t have a ton of power, but is very elusive, and beat a lot of defender angles. Taylor doesn’t pretend to be something he’s not, and this helps him. Taylor doesn’t run into contact or try to break away from big piles; instead, he pushes the pace to the outside and open areas. Despite Arizona’s overall terrible season, they did do a good job optimizing Taylor’s usage. If that’s the case, and Taylor can continue to produce in 2019 as he did in 2018, NFL teams will be forced to pay attention. One last side-note, Taylor got extensive work as a kick returner in 2018 (22 returns for 540 yards and one TD. Another positive quality.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Fourth-to-Fifth Round – Taylor has much less variance to his draft position than what would generally be expected. Yes, Taylor is small, but that actually cuts down the rounds he can go in. Teams will almost assuredly not want to take him in the top three rounds, but if he produces well again in 2019, they simply won’t be able to ignore him in the fourth or fifth rounds, where other small RBs like Darren Sproles, Tarik Cohen and Donnell Pumphrey have gone in the past.
Similar Prospect(s): Tarik Cohen, Donnell Pumphrey
Joshua Kelley (RB, UCLA)
Chip Kelly has a toy to play with. Despite a really, really (I mean REALLY) ugly season from the UCLA offense, Kelley found a way to impress in less than conditions. Kelley initially started out his career at UC Davis but saw an opportunity to transfer up in 2017 and took it. After sitting out the 2017 season (due to transfer rules), Kelley emerged as UCLA’s lead back. By the end of the year, it was clear Kelley was the best offensive weapon, and he ended up finishing the season with 1,436 yards from scrimmage and 12 TDs. After only seeing 29 touches in his first three games, Kelley finished 2018 accumulating 18 or more touches in each of his last eight games, including four games with 30 or more. Kelley is listed at 5 foot 11 and 205 pounds and appears to have a body type to add bulk. Considering his style of play, it would make sense to see him add five or ten pounds before he gets onto an NFL field. Kelley is no-nonsense, and found most of his success by making correct cuts and then letting his speed take over once in the open field.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Fourth-to-Sixth Round – Kelley is a straight-line runner who can truly thrive in the right system. Athletic testing could boost his stock a bit if he can run the 40-yard dash in a good time, but overall he’s pretty locked into the middle rounds barring a spectacular 2019 season.
Similar Prospect(s): Joseph Randle
Adrian Hardy (WR, Louisiana Tech)
Hardy is a tall and lanky (listed at 6 foot 2 and 195 pounds) small conference WR prospect. Hardy really emerged as a prominent target in 2018, producing 1,145 receiving yards and 6 TDs on 75 receptions. Hardy was used as an intermediate and deep target for Louisiana Tech and profiles as a WR that would play a similar role in the NFL. Hardy isn’t an elite athlete by any means but does have savvy route-running and an ability to find open spaces in zones. Hardy does have a long frame, and an ability to use that to his advantage on deep targets. Hardy has displayed ability to catch the ball away from his body.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Sixth-to-Seventh Round – Without elite athletic testing, Hardy will have a long road towards finding starter snaps in the NFL. Hardy does have redeeming qualities, but playing for a smaller school is going to be a negative that looms large during the draft process.
Similar Prospect(s): Tajae Sharpe, Rishard Matthews
Marquez Stevenson (WR, Houston)
Stevenson is electric. That sums it up pretty well. At 6 feet and 190 pounds, Stevenson consistently finds new ways to make defenders look silly in the open field. Not only did Stevenson show potential as a receiver, but he was used in a reasonable fashion as a runner and on returns as well. Stevenson turned 14 rushing attempts into 126 rushing yards and two TDs, while also turning 12 kick returns into 269 return yards (Also had three punt returns for 22 yards). This type of versatility can be an indicator that Stevenson can and will translate to the NFL, even as a small conference prospect. Stevenson showed the ability to win on all types of routes in 2018, and while QB D’Eriq King struggled with throwing deep, Stevenson showed strong ability to get open. Stevenson will likely test out in an elite fashion in agility drills, and never gets caught from behind in the open field. Another strong season from a production perspective should get Stevenson on NFL radars.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Third-to-Fourth Round – There’s no question Stevenson will test out well, it’s just, how well? If he does indeed test out with 90th percentile or higher scores across the board, then this projection will need adjusting, but giving him above average athletic testing would place him right in the early-middle rounds of the NFL draft from a historical perspective.
Similar Prospect(s): Carlos Henderson, Andre Roberts
