Entering the month of June, bestball drafts have been going on for quite some time now. Now that NBA and NHL finals have concluded, this is generally the time of year where we start to see draft activity begin to ramp up with more and more drafters getting started.
Drafting early certainly can have it’s advantages to those that have a good pulse around the league and knowledge on the types of players rookies are, but by the time June rolls around, ADP begins to stabilize and take form. The advantage shrinks as the knowledge becomes commonplace, but the stabilization provides another brief window for us to gain value against our peers. The NFL is constantly evolving and those that aren’t looking forward to see where some of the ADP trends are going, are often left behind.
That’s exactly why taking a close look at ADP movement can be beneficial to your overall drafting strategy in bestball leagues. Finding which players are trending up and down can help you find value plays as well as determine when a player becomes too costly to acquire.
DRAFT’s scoring settings — half-PPR — will make this a more unique ADP report compared to the typical full-PPR sites that will also be analyzed. Feel free to check out more on specific DRAFT scoring and strategy from our bestball guide.
I pulled ADP from this current week from DRAFT.com and compared it to this weeks’ time frame a month ago.
Let’s take a look at some risers and fallers that have had at least a net move of +/- two full rounds (24 draft picks) in their ADP over the past month.
June ADP Risers
Alexander Mattison (+48.6)
For whatever reason, Alexander Mattison did not register an ADP for the month of May between 5/11 to 5/18. I gave him the default cutoff from my exercise of May ADP at 215, giving him the biggest leap in ADP from mid-May to mid-June. Mattison has reportedly taken a lot of first team snaps in minicamp, splitting them with teammate Dalvin Cook. If Mattison were to be utilized as the “B” part of a committee, his value should continue to rise beyond his current 14th-round status. Even if Cook sees the large majority of the snaps and touches in this committee, Mattison now presents terrific standalone value as the clear RB2 behind Cook in case of injury. Cook has missed 17-of-32 possible games so far in his two-year career.
Advice: I’m personally going to keep reaching for him in the 13th round ahead of ADP to ensure he lands on my squads. At this point in the draft, very few backs have the upside of Mattison.
Tyreek Hill (+44.3)
The biggest surprise in this exercise was seeing how far Tyreek Hill had climbed in the past month among drafters. The only thing we’ve heard or seen in terms of an update is that Hill missed all of minicamp and that some members of the national media believe he’ll be back for training camp. Hill still remains suspended from team activities at the time of this writing, yet over the past month, he’s gone from a ninth round draft pick to one going in the fifth. Nothing about his playing time has changed with his looming suspension.
Advice: Keep fading.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+40.1)
Some of the biggest news coming out of Packers’ minicamp was just how much the team — and perhaps even more importantly, Aaron Rodgers — saw improvement in Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s game. He’s reportedly looked sharp in practice and looks like he’s been brought into Rodgers’ inner circle of trust. MVS is currently slated to start opposite Davante Adams and figures to have a bigger role in this offense in 2019. DRAFT still has Geronimo Allison ahead of MVS in terms of ADP rankings. Let Allison fall to your competitors while you scoop up MVS at a discount.
Advice: Keep buying ahead of ADP. It won’t be long until MVS climbs into the single-digit rounds.
DeVante Parker (+34.3)
Another hot name coming out of minicamp, DeVante Parker has reportedly caught anything and everything thrown his way. Offseason hyperbole can sometimes get carried away and this is likely a simple case of that. Parker’s skillset hasn’t really been the issue with him — it’s his lack of availability. His continued absence due to injury hasn’t helped his case. Getting a downfield slinger in Ryan Fitzpatrick could be just what Parker needs to reach his potential, but it likely won’t be long into the season before the Dolphins try to see what they have in Josh Rosen and we see Parker’s value plummet.
Advice: I wouldn’t go wild with exposure here, but he’s not going to torpedo bestball teams with 14th-round ADP. There could be some early fireworks in the season between him and Fitzpatrick that make a few shots on Parker worth it.
Damien Harris (+30.7)
As soon as we think we have the Patriots’ backfield figured out, Bill Belichick reminds us that he operates the puppet strings and we’re all just trying to keep pace. Sony Michel’s well-documented left knee injury continues to be a concern. It forced him to miss all of minicamp with Damien Harris being the main recipient of Michel’s lost reps. Harris, this year’s third-round draft pick by the Patriots, has looked sharp in camp with them focusing on him improving all phases of his game. Harris’ current ADP is in the 11th round.
Advice: Harris has the potential to take over lead duties in this backfield if Michel can’t get his knee right. That’s a valuable role and one well worth taking in the 10th/11th rounds.
Darren Waller (+26.7)
Jared Cook’s departure opens up over 100 targets in the Oakland offense to be redistributed. Darren Waller may not have anywhere near the experience of Cook, but Waller possesses similar size-speed to be a potential game changer. The Raiders offense is absolutely one in transition with not just Cook’s vacated targets to account for, but all the others in their mass exodus as we enter the Antonio Brown Raiders era. Waller has now climbed from often going undrafted to the 16th round as a popular TE3 target.
Advice: This is purely a roster construction play. Depending on when you select your first two tight ends, you may merit drafting a third. Waller is absolutely in play if you need a third.
Curtis Samuel (+24.2)
Another big climber among the draft boards has been the Panthers’ Curtis Samuel. There’s been a steady drumbeat of positive news coming out of Carolina’s camps regarding Samuel, and that’s exactly what we want to be looking for at this time of the year. Samuel may have some inconsistent targets as the third passing option, but the way OC Norv Turner utilizes him — end arounds, screens, deep passes — allows him to put up fantasy points in bunches.
Advice: He’s become a massive bestball target of mine and someone I’m trying to grab in the ninth round.
June ADP Fallers
Emmanuel Sanders (-42.5)
Drafters seem to be wising up to the Achilles tear that Sanders will be coming back from. He’s had a few videos of him making cuts and sprints surface on Twitter, but entering his age-32 season, there’s reason to approach cautiously. Achilles tears are something that rarely see an athlete return to 100%, much less an athlete that’s in his 30’s. Temper expectations.
Advice: He’s been off my draft board entirely this summer and I don’t see that changing.
Mike Davis (-41.9)
It looks like drafters are already handing the starting job in Chicago to rookie David Montgomery. Mike Davis has seen a massive drop in his ADP over the past month falling from the mid-12th round down to the 16th. Like Samuel, there’s been a steady drumbeat of positive news regarding Montgomery. He’s looked terrific in minicamp and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he relegates Davis to backup duties.
Advice: Davis still has standalone value given the touch limitations Chicago has on Tarik Cohen. Taking a few shares at this suppressed ADP could pay off but is truly a gamble.
Noah Fant (-24.6)
Rookie fever looks to have cooled off at the tight end position with Noah Fant seeing a significant drop in ADP. After being selected in the first round of the NFL draft just a little more than a month ago, drafters are recognizing how few tight ends post successful fantasy campaigns as rookies. Playing in an offense where he’ll be competing for underneath targets with DaeSean Hamilton and Phillip Lindsay, Fant’s best case is that he’ll likely be fourth on the target totem pole. His lack of blocking could also lead to him seeing fewer snaps and opportunities in Year 1. Fant has now fallen to TE23 behind veterans Jordan Reed, Jimmy Graham, and Greg Olsen.
Advice: Take the veterans instead.
A.J. Brown (-24.5)
The Titans drafted A.J. Brown in the second round of this year’s draft, joining a crowded depth chart in Tennessee filled with playmakers. Brown could easily see himself elevated to the first team unit, but a minor hamstring injury recently kept him out of team drills during minicamp. There’s five weeks for him to get his hamstring back to 100% before training camp starts, but the biggest concern for Brown entering this season is what type of volume we can expect for him. Corey Davis is coming off a whopping 26% target share last season, but the rest of the targets in Tennessee were fairly well distributed. Playing on a run-first team headlined by Derrick Henry, the passing volume just might not be there for Brown to make a name for himself in fantasy circles as a rookie.
Advice: Inconsistent target volume should define Brown’s rookie season, but there could be some high-scoring weeks sprinkled in. I’ll have a few shares as my final pick if his ADP stays in the 17th/18th rounds.
Carlos Hyde (-24.2)
Definitive news that Damien Williams will be the starter and workhorse for Kansas City has seen Carlos Hyde’s value take a recent plummet. We’ve learned from the coaching staff that they expect Hyde to still see a few snaps within different formations in this offense, but that it’s Williams’ job to lose. Hyde still holds onto a very valuable backup role in Andy Reid’s fantasy-friendly offense that has produced a top-16 PPR fantasy back in 16-of-20 seasons Reid has coached. There’s a strong case to be made for Hyde as a potential post-hype sleeper this year, where he’s an injury away from RB1 potential.
Advice: 10th Round equity is a lot to spend on a backup. This is the sweet spot in your drafts to grab your starting quarterback. I’d wait for Hyde’s value to plummet further (11th/12th Rounds) before taking shots on him.
