Zack Collins was a start in college at Miami, Florida leading to a first-round selection by the White Sox. He’s progressed through the minors with moderate success with the bat. He’s always shown an ability to work the count and hit the ball deep, but he’s also dealt with contact issues, as well as a less than ideal defensive game for a backstop. With his arrival in the big leagues, it’s time to assess the current backstops outlook for the coming campaign.
24 years old
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Height/Weight: 6’3”, 220 lbs.
Position: Catcher
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
14-16 |
College |
188 |
.320 |
42 |
183 |
147 |
8 |
1.077 |
|
2016 |
RK, A |
39 |
.244 |
6 |
18 |
25 |
0 |
.831 |
|
2017 |
A+, AA |
113 |
.224 |
19 |
53 |
70 |
0 |
.816 |
|
2018 |
AA |
122 |
.234 |
15 |
68 |
58 |
5 |
.786 |
|
2019 |
AAA |
50 |
.250 |
9 |
39 |
33 |
0 |
.855 |
|
|
Minors |
324 |
.234 |
49 |
178 |
186 |
5 |
.812 |
|
|
Baseball America |
Baseball Prospectus |
MLB.com |
|
2017 |
56th |
89th |
81st |
Collins was originally drafted in the 27th round in 2013 out of high school by the Reds.
He reentered the draft and was taking in the first round in 2016 by the White Sox.
THE SKILLS
From the preseason rookie writeup.
He isn’t a great athlete. He doesn’t have elite power. So why the interest? He displays power to all fields, and to say he’s comfortable working deep into accounts is an understatement. He walked 87 and 101 batters the last two seasons despite appearing in 113 and 122 games. That means his OBP has been .370 or higher in each of his three seasons including .382 last season. He also owns a 0.66 BB/K ratio to this point, and he has averaged 17 big flies the last two season. On the downside, Collins stroke can get long, and his K-rate the last two season’s is 36.2 percent, a hideous number, leading to a .230 batting average. As of now, his fantasy outlook is similar to that of Mike Zunino, with a bit less power.
Collins is willing to work the count to find the pitch that he requires, and his plate discipline rates as the best in the White Sox minor league system. That said, his current 17.5 percent walk rate is the lowest mark he’s ever had in his first season at Triple-A. Still, the resulting .374 OBP is impressive, especially when you consider that his batting average is just .250.
Collins strikes out, a lot. Last year the mark was 29.8 percent, and the rate has gone up this season to a career worst 32.0 percent. This is a massive concern when it comes to batting average. Unless he increases his contact rate, and there is nothing in his profile to suggest that is going to happen, .250 is the top end of what you should be expecting. As I suggested in the preseason, .230’s might be what we get from Collins. Would I expect that level now? Here’s why I’m concerned.
1 – Collins has a career worst BB-rate currently.
2 – Collins has a career worst K-rate currently.
3 – Collins has a career best BABIP of .337 which is artificially boosting his batting average. Note that Collins has hit .223, .235 and .234 at his three previous stops to Triple-A this season where, again, he’s hitting just .250.
4 – He can’t hit left-handed pitching. More on that below.
So, the average is a concern, even in this era of less concern with batting average.
Let’s talk power.
Collins has a .232 ISO this season, right on pace with his 2017 effort though the mark was .170 last season. Regardless, he can power the ball pretty effectively. He also helps the cause by lifting the ball having never posted a GB/FB ratio higher than his current 0.86 mark. Collins routinely posts a fly ball rate of around 45 percent, a homer kinda level.
Collins has a current 21.4 HR/FB ratio, a career best mark. He’s been at just about 15 percent the last three years, slightly better than the current big-league average.
Collins pulls the ball, he’s over 43 percent since the start of the 2018 season, but he still uses the field with a 31 percent up the middle and 26 percent to the opposite field.
PLAYING TIME
James McCann is mashing with an absurd .324/.374/.509 slash line. He will continue to function as the primary catcher. That’s a good thing for Collins who struggles defensively (Welington Castillo has a strained left oblique and has been placed on the DL). It’s hard to think that Collins would be called up merely to fill the role of backup catcher, makes little sense to play him twice a week in the bigs, so the club will likely try to get him involved elsewhere, likely at DH. Consider that the teams’ DH spot has produced a .191/.294/.357 slash line, it makes sense to try and insert some offense in the form of Collins. Zack has played nine games at first base this season as well, and his arrival could push the struggling Yonder Alonso into a part-time role.
All that said, early word is that Collins will not start Tuesday or Wednesday against lefties Hamels/Lester which suggests that the Sox will be cautious with Collins usage against lefties, and that doesn’t exactly warm the heart. If Collins is going to sit against lefties it could help the old batting average, but dim his counting category outlook a wee bit. Truth? He has no business facing lefties in the bigs, not after what he’s done against port-siders to this point at Triple-A: .189/.283/.378 with 22 strikeouts in 47 at-bats. That’s hideous. Last year he hit .212 with 43 punchouts in 104 at-bats against lefties.
It’s unclear where he will hit in the order, but the bottom third seems to make the most sense currently.
It should be pointed out, that elite starting pitching prospect Dylan Cease has worked a good deal with Collins in the minors, so the Collins callup could be viewed as a precursor to a Cease call up.
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CONCLUSION
Collins has the game to be the new Zunino, albeit with the ability to take a walk to help out in the OBP category. Collins profiles much better in OBP leagues than standard batting average setups. He’s got the power to hit 25 homers in the big leagues, but with tons of contact issues. His swing can get long and there have been issues catching up to high-end velocity at times. This is an unforgiving game, and Collins could struggle to make contact and strike out at horrific levels. If he stays within himself however, he could offer second catcher production the rest of the way. That’s not saying much in the minefield that is the position, as he struggles for playing time, especially against lefties. Unless you’re one of the lucky few blessed with two trustworthy catchers, Collins is worth a look in all two-catcher leagues.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
