2018 is behind us, and a lot of information from that time has gone stale. However, sometimes it’s good to look back, see who broke out and determine if that information is actionable in the future. Every NFL prospect is different, and every NFL player has differing levels of opportunity, athleticism, talent and arguably most importantly, injury luck. League winning players come from the middle to late rounds every season, and being able to have even a slight advantage in this area can create huge profit opportunities.
So, how do we quantify a breakout? For this practice, let’s say qualifying players are RBs and WRs who finished top 20 in fantasy points (through 16 weeks) in 2018, that hadn’t previously. One more stipulation. These players had to be drafted OUTSIDE the top five rounds fantasy drafts. You don’t need me to tell you about Saquon Barkley. A lot of players fall under the one-hit-wonder category and will only appear as a top fantasy asset for a short period of time, but let’s put our rose colored glasses on and appreciate the seasons that were.
Running Back
James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers (RB6, 22.3 PPG) – So, technically Conner was drafted in the top five rounds of fantasy drafts, but he cost almost nothing before Le’Veon Bell was officially holding out for the season. So, the question is, was this predictable? Maybe not completely, but Conner was drafted in the third round of the 2017 NFL draft, and put together a very productive career at Pittsburgh (The University). Conner essentially red-shirted in his rookie season because of Bell’s extreme workload, but he was the clear backup heading into 2018. Conner was pretty easy to spot once Bell went away, but there probably could’ve been hindsight before he went down as well.
James White, New England Patriots (RB8, 17.3 PPG) – The classic fantasy football experience. A random Patriots RB comes out of nowhere and turns in a top 12 fantasy finish. Fantasy relevant Patriot RBs come in all shapes, sizes and roles. Over the years players like LeGarrette Blount, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Dion Lewis have come out of relatively boring careers and became prominent fantasy weapons. This was no different for White. While White had shown signs of being a good player before (2017 Super Bowl against the Eagles), It’s tough to see this type of role coming in the preseason. Between Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, and Jeremy Hill all getting injured, and prominent receiving weapons like Josh Gordon and Rob Gronkowski missing time, there simply wasn’t much competition for targets. There will ALWAYS be a lot of fantasy points to go around in the Patriots backfield, determining who will emerge from the ashes is a much more difficult proposition.
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos (RB12, 14.9 PPG) – WHOA. Talk about a surprise. After going undrafted, Lindsay was arguably the waiver wire pick up of the 2018 season. Despite being a workhorse at a power five conference school for multiple seasons (Colorado), Lindsay simply didn’t pass the sniff test for NFL teams during the draft process. Despite that, Lindsay fought his way through training camp, emerged in the Broncos RB depth chart and figured out a way to get 227 touches as a rookie. Lindsay even beat out Royce Freeman, a player the Broncos drafted in the third round of the 2018 draft. This was an incredibly special year, and it would be tough to replicate for UDFAs. Lindsay posted the second most touches in a rookie season for a UDFA RB since 1970, and also, the second most yards from scrimmage. This was a once in a decade performance, and there isn’t much to take away from this moving forward.
Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears (RB13, 14.9 PPG) –As soon as Matt Nagy was installed as the new head coach, there was a lot of talk about Cohen and how he would be optimal in the system that was being brought to Chicago. Those ideas turned into facts as the 2018 season evolved. Cohen was electric in space, and the Bears were great at optimizing his touches. Cohen ended the season with 170 touches, and 1169 yards from scrimmage. While those numbers could be difficult to re-create in 2019, there were clear signs Cohen was going to be the receiving down RB in the offense, and there was plenty of reasoning behind the idea that he could emerge as a fantasy weapon. Personally, I wasn’t high on him going into last year, but that’s because I’m a draft position zealot (Cohen was a fourth round pick in the NFL draft).
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (RB15, 12.7 PPG) – Chubb was totally and completely submarined by his initial depth chart, and his season turning out the way it did was a very low odd outcome. Chubb was one of the best RB prospects of the decade, but his situation was absolutely putrid heading into the 2018 season. Yes, he was selected in the second round of the 2018 draft, but he went to a team that already had a starter AND backup. Between Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde, there simply wasn’t room for Chubb to have a rookie season impact. For the first half of the season, that was true, then the Browns traded Hyde to the Jaguars. Chubb was electric on just about every touch down the stretch, ending the year with 1145 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns on 212 touches. Considering his draft position, athletic profile and overall special ability, it makes some sense he broke out, but that would’ve been tough to EXPECT considering the situation he walked into.
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks (RB18, 14.0 PPG) – Carson beat out a first round RB (Rashaad Penny), coming off a major injury. Much like Lindsay, this was a very wild outcome considering what we know about historical predictability of draft position, but here we are. Carson showed signs of being a competent RB in the prior season, producing 267 yards from scrimmage on only 56 touches, but then suffered the aforementioned injury. Penny hurt his wrist in training camp, giving Carson a huge advantage heading into the year. While Penny displayed in multiple instances why he was a first round selection, Carson stayed healthy and effective throughout the season, pushing Penny into backup duty. Again, this is a rare occurrence. Not often do incumbents hold off RBs selected in round one, and despite this happening here, betting on RBs in Carson’s situation, in the future, is not something I’d advise.
Wide Receivers
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals (WR15, 15.8 PPG) – Boyd was left for dead after his uneventful second season. Actually, it wasn’t uneventful, plenty happened. The issue being it didn’t take place on the football field. Boyd started off 2017 by getting in trouble with the law, and quickly falling down a competitive depth chart. After posting only 225 receiving yards in 2017, the 2016 second round pick was largely viewed as a bust, but his rookie year would disagree. Boyd put together a really strong 2016 season, accumulating 603 receiving yards on 81 targets. Boyd showed signs of being a productive slot WR, and 2018 was that coming to fruition. Boyd was a talented prospect out of college, and there was a lot of exciting things about his profile. Players like Boyd, who get off to slow starts in their NFL careers, are still worth investing in, even without NFL production through the first few seasons.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (WR18, 13.8 PPG) –Lockett was in a very similar situation to Boyd. A few years after being selected in the third round, Lockett finally found his way to a weekly, fantasy relevant role. Lockett has long been highlighted as a player with strong potential, but because of the Seahawks’ conservative offensive style and also, an Apex Doug Baldwin, there simply wasn’t room for another big time fantasy WR. 2018 provided a banged up Baldwin who clearly was on his last legs (retired months after the season ended). While Lockett never rose to fantasy prominence, he did have 555 receiving yards or more in each of his first three seasons, and showed plenty of signs before breaking out fully.This one makes sense.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions (WR19, 13.8 PPG) – Another third round selection in the NFL draft. Golladay first showed signs in his rookie year, Seemingly coming out of nowhere to make spectacular plays down the field in a small sample. Golladay’s rookie season ended early, but there was clearly a skill-set that warranted consideration as a breakout candidate. Coming out of Northern Illinois, Golladay projected as a versatile weapon that could battle for deep targets with defenders, and also take Jet Sweeps for positive gains. That versatility is appealing, and the Lions went into the season with him as their main focus. An injury to Marvin Jones early in the year certainly boosted some of the targets that went Golladay’s way, but that, by no means, was the main cause of the breakout. WRs selected in the top three rounds of the NFL draft, with solid athletic and production profiles, tend to work out in the NFL.
