Happy Monday my Fantasy Guru fam! I hope everyone had a nice weekend and to all the Dads out there, I hope your Father’s day was awesome.
A fantasy football strategy that has become popular in recent years is the zero running back approach. For those who are not aware of what this is, let me explain. This is when fantasy owners hold off on drafting a running back in the early rounds and focus their attention on other positions, mainly wide receivers. Typically when using this strategy, fantasy owners wait until the fifth or sixth round to take their first running back.
WHY ZERO RB?
Being that the NFL has changed over the last several years, the receiver position has become more valuable. Aside from many fantasy leagues shifting from a standard scoring setting to a PPR scoring setting, nowadays in the NFL there are more running back by committee situations, which leads to less bellcow running backs. Not saying that there are no every down backs left in the league, but not like there once was. Another reason why this has become popular is because in a lot of leagues now, you start three wide outs.
In addition, there are plenty of pass catching backs in the NFL, so even if they’re now the early down backs, they see the field enough and accumulate points with receptions, making them very viable options in PPR formats. This really allows you to get creative on draft day and go in many different directions because you will not be drawing completely dead if you do not take a running back in one of the first two rounds.
When you look at the scoring at the end of the year, there are actually more wide receivers in the top 30 then there are running backs, as far as fantasy points are concerned. Since 2016, there have been at least 16 receivers in the top 30 fantasy scoring each season. In fact, in 2016 there were 18 and in 2017 there were 17 inside the top 30. So more than half each season. Please note that this does not include tight ends.
WHEN TO USE THE ZERO RB STRATEGY
First and foremost, I do not play many standard leagues anymore, but I feel most comfortable using the zero RB approach in PPR formats. Some might say to implement this strategy regardless of where you are picking in your fantasy football draft, but as I say often, I am all about adjusting during drafts. If you end up with an early pick, say top four or five this season, an argument can be made that you should be taking a running back, considering some of the top options at the position this year. These backs are all but guaranteed to be productive and offer a very safe floor. That said, if you are on the back end of the draft, this is where taking this approach makes the most sense because it is wide open at that point.
Let’s face it, as I pointed out in my first article of the Mind of Marsal series, there are several running backs going off of the board early such as Le’Veon Bell, James Conner, and Todd Gurley, that come with risk and uncertainty. Therefore, taking a wide out ahead of the backs seems like a wise move. Unless I can get Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Ezekiel Elliott this season, I am more than likely using the zero running back strategy on draft day.
RUNNING BACKS USING ZERO RB STRATEGY
Marlon Mack, Colts – Ok, ok — I know that some may not consider taking a running back in the third round to be the zero RB approach, but hear me out for a second. Mack is probably the only running back I will be doing this with. Last year, he totaled over 1,000 yards from scrimmage, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and finding the pay dirt a total of 10 times. He runs behind a much improved offensive line and plays for an offense that averaged the eighth most points per game last season, so scoring shouldn’t be an issue for Mack this year. He showed the ability to run in between the tackles, as well as solid hands with a 71 percent catch rate out of the backfield. The Colts didn’t add any back that will cut into Mack’s workload, so they should give him all the work he can handle. The only concern I have with him is durability, but a healthy Mack this season could pay dividends to fantasy owners, which is why I am willing to take him in the third round while implementing the zero RB approach.
Tarik Cohen, Bears – Cohen is currently coming off of the board in the later parts of the fifth round. This is a great running back to consider if you decide to wait on drafting the position. Last season he finished sixth among running backs in targets with 87. His role in the passing game is significant and he also averaged 6.2 rush attempts per game, so he will get his occasional rush attempts. The team drafted David Montgomery who is expected to be the early down back and he could cut into Cohen’s workload, but the fact that Cohen is such an elite pass catcher keeps him valuable in PPR formats. Over the last two seasons, he has caught 124 passes on 162 targets. Considering the way this offense operates, another busy season catching passes out of the backfield, is very likely for Cohen. Montgomery is also another running back out in this offense that you can consider using the zero RB method, since he is expected to have a significant role and he is coming off of the board after the fifth round in most drafts.
Kenyan Drake, Dolphins – Last season was a disappointing one for Drake. His value skyrocketed and he let plenty of fantasy owners down. It was not completely his fault, in fact, former Dolphins head coach Adam Gase just did not give him the opportunity for whatever reason. When Drake touched the ball he was actually very efficient, averaging 1.2 fantasy points per touch which was more than running backs such as Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, and Christian McCaffrey. However, for whatever reason, he was limited to 120 carries and 66 targets. The good news for Drake is that Gase is no longer the head coach and considering how thin this entire offense is, it would be utterly shocking not to see this new regime use their best offensive player often in 2019. Drake averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per carry last season and caught 80 percent of his targets. His current fifth and sixth round ADP is very appealing to me and I like the idea of buying low on Drake this year.
James White, Patriots – White has been someone I have been targeting for years now using this strategy. Last season he really came out of his shell as one of the top producing backs in the league, but he had been quietly productive for since 2015 with at least 54 targets, 40 catches, 400 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns each season. Then if you were watching closely, you would have seen that he is a running back that the Patriots really trust, as they used him often in the post season and featured him a ton. It is difficult to ever trust a running back in Bill Belichick’s offense, but there is no denying that White has a solidified role in this offense, especially in the passing game. The fact that Rob Gronkowski decided to retire should cement White’s role in the passing game and create a very strong floor. His fifth and sixth round ADP could end up being a steal this upcoming season. After all, he offers top 10 running back upside like we witnessed last season. He is one of those backs I would be prioritizing with the zero RB approach.
Lamar Miller, Texans – I know, there is nothing sexy about Miller and he has not panned out as most thought, including myself. He has not done a ton as a pass catcher out of the backfield and running behind this offensive line does not help his bottom line. That being said, his ability to pass block really well should keep him on the field often this season, considering how bad this offensive line still is. In addition, Miller has attempted over 200 rushes in three straight seasons and in four of his last five, averaging over four yards per carry during that stretch. He has also finished as a top 24 running back in each of the last five years, with two top 10 finishes during that stretch. Nothing suggests that his role will be limited this season, as a matter of fact, this is the final year of his contract so it would not be surprising to see the team run him as much as possible. Plus the Texans are very thin at running back. While he can be frustrating in some weeks, you can do much worse than Miller as an RB2/RB3 when taking the zero RB approach.
MY THOUGHTS
I am all about skipping on a running back early in drafts so long as I am on the back end of the draft. However, I do not mind taking a running back in the third or fourth round if it is one that I really feel good about, such as Marlon Mack like I mentioned above. You see, if everyone taking the zero RB approach is waiting until the fifth round to select their first running back, you will be competing with other fantasy owners for the same guys. This is why I like the idea of being contrarian with this approach and taking a running back in the third or fourth round. Just because I am taking a running back with either of these picks, does not mean I cannot draft a wide receiver with the other pick and still take a couple of running backs in the fifth and sixth rounds. In fact, I actually like starting my drafts with three receivers and one running back when I am toward the end of fantasy drafts and then select a couple of the running backs that I mentioned above with my next picks, so long as the draft permits.
If you decide to go with the zero RB approach, another thing I suggest is to load up on pass catching backs as you draft. Here are some examples of running backs I am targeting later in my drafts: Nyheim Hines, Jaylen Samuels, Austin Ekeler, Jordan Howard (he’s not a pass catcher, but he is dropping in drafts to the eighth round and is expected to be the early down and goal line back for the Eagles), and Darrell Henderson.
As always, adjust to your drafts accordingly, and do not be afraid to be different from the pack with your approach. When others go right, go left, it is something I have practiced for a long time now in my season-long leagues. You’d be surprised as to how often you put other fantasy owners in odd spots using this approach and how happy you might be at the end of the draft with your roster.
Good luck to everyone this season. Feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal with any questions or in our chat room.
