Chris Paddack was recently sent to the minors in order to curtail his workload this season (we’ve known since the preseason that 135-50 innings was the likely end point for the righty of the Padres, so it was very surprising to me to see so many folks in a tizzy not getting what the Padres were doing with their young righty). The workload concern with Paddack brings to the fore the question – which of your arms are on a pitch count of some type this season? Mind you, many of the pitchers that we will mention don’t have he will 100 percent throw X amount of innings this season. We’re guessing a bit. To that end, you can’t overlook the following data points.
1 – There’s more than just innings to consider. There are pitch counts, the type of pitches thrown, the stress level of the pitches etc. It’s not just about innings, it’s just that innings are easy to quantify/record.
2 – The age/status of the pitcher needs to be considered. Prospect #30 on team X could be allowed a little more wiggle room than Prospect #2.
3 – How the pitcher actually looks. Over his last four starts has the walk rate shot up to 4.35 per nine or has the K-rate bounced up to 9.75? Can’t simply remove how the pitcher is performing using the innings pitched as a red line. Well you could do that, I’m just suggesting (A) that’s not very smart to do and (B) teams will be smarter than that (I hope).
4 – The place of the team in the standings matters. If the team is 12.5 games out of a playoff spot there is no reason at all to push the young arm. However, if the team is 2.5 games out of the playoffs, perhaps there will be a bit more requested of the youngster.
Let’s talk about the arms that carry with them concerns.
PRESEASON TAKES
Back in the preseason, I wrote Starting Pitchers: Innings and Pitches.
I noted four men in the red zone as they all saw 100-innings increases last season.
Andrew Heaney won’t have to worry about innings this season as his health has held him down to less than 30-innings at the moment.
Kyle Wright has been horrid this season with an ERA well over six in his minor/major league work this season.
Anthony DeSclafani is on pace for 31 starts and 155 innings, a season after throwing 126.1 innings. Looks fine in terms of workload.
Zack Wheeler went from one, to 86.1 to 187.1 innings the last three years. Don’t know if it’s related or not, but he’s the owner of a 4.87 ERA and 1.year WHIP and has a very hard time finding his groove this season. He’s on pace to hit 200-innings this season.
There were seven men listed in yellow zone (50-95 innings increase last year).
Wade LeBlanc has dealt with injury and us currently two outs from 50 innings.
Mike Minor has been stupendous with a 2.63 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 99 strikeouts in 95.2 innings. He added 79.1 innings last season to 157. He’s on pace to add 60 more this season. Concern is a legitimate word to use with Minor, even with his current level of performance.
Steven Matz is seemingly always in and out of the lineup. He’s on pace to throw a few more innings than the 154 he threw last season.
Jesus Luzardo had that shoulder issue, and it wasn’t until last week that he threw an official pitch. There are no innings concerns with him as a result (he threw 109.1 innings last season). It’s all about health.
Joshua James saw his total go up over 61 innings last season to 137.1 in total. He’s working out of the Astros bullpen and has thrown 37.1 innings this season.
Walker Buehler started out the season in a troublesome fashion. Fourteen starts in he’s 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with a 6.46 K/BB ratio. He appears to be just fine, though I’m still interested to see how he fairs when the innings pile up in the second half.
Carlos Rodon… hurt yet again and his season is over.
CURRENT TAKES
Here are the hurlers that have emerged this season that you should be keeping a close eye on.
Dylan Cease went from 93.1 to 124 innings last season. He’s thrown 57.2 innings to date as the White Sox continue to be very cautious with him. They have managed his innings so that it seems likely that 150-innings isn’t going to happen, so he should be just fine.
Max Fried has never hit 120-innings in a season. He’s on pace to surpass 170-innings this season. This doesn’t sound like it’s gonna end well. In fact, Fried is already showing some cracks in the foundation being bombed for four homers and 17 runs his last four starts (20.1 innings).
Domingo German is someone I’ve been warning about for a while, evening mentioned that 150-innings seemed like a stretch. German has already thrown 70-innings, but the foundation is shaking. Over his last three outings German has allowed 14 runs over 14.2 innings, and he’s now on the DL with a hip issue.
Brad Keller threw 142 innings in 2015, 135 in 2016 and 130.2 in 2014. Last year he “pushed” the number to 140.1 frames. That’s four straight years of nearly identical work, but really, zero growth. He’s already up to 93 innings this season putting him on pace blow past 200-innings. You feel good about that?
Frankie Montas has never thrown 140-innings in a season as he came up just short last season. He’s dealt with some health woes, but it’s been a lot of starting and relieving over the years that have kept the innings in check. He’s currently on pace to hit 185-innings, and one would think that the A’s simply won’t push him that far. First, they have A.J. Puk, Jesus Luzardo and Sean Manaea working their way back. Second, with as great as Montas has been, and the ability the A’s have to control him, they have to be somewhat cautious thinking about the future. The A’s need their young/cheap players to perform. If one of them is blown out, they cannot go to free agency and replace him.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is the NL Cy Young right now. That said, he’s on pace to throw more than 200-innings this season. Here are his innings pitches totals since 2014: 152.0, zero, 14.1, 126.2 and 89.1 (minors included). The last five seasons, due to injury, Ryu has failed to throw 130-innings. Good luck getting 190 out of him this season.
Caleb Smith has dominated this season, a year he threw only 77.1 innings and needed surgery. Alas, he’s currently on the shelf with a hip issue just 11.1 innings short of last season. It was always going to be a challenge to get 150-innings out of Smith given that he has one professional season of 120-innings (see his Player Profile). The injury will actually help keep his innings in check.
Mike Soroka is on pace for “only” 170 innings. That said, he didn’t throw 60-innings last season as he dealt with shoulder woes. Don’t forget the shoulder wasn’t 100 percent in Spring Training this season either. Add in his insane level of production, and you would be wise to keep your second half expectations in check.
Matt Straham has allowed two homers in each of his last four outings. In his last two outings, wrapped around a DL stint (ribs), he’s allowed 13 runs over 7.2 innings. Straham threw all of 75.2 innings last season and he’s never thrown 125-innigns in a season. He’s currently on pace for about 145, but even that might be a tad optimistic.
Brandon Woodruff has been a marvel for the Brewers. He’s thrown more than 100-innings in 4-straight seasons and almost hit 160 back in 2016. Note that he threw an average of 117.1 innings the last two seasons and he’s already over 80 this season.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
