A few years back, Ketel Marte was a middle infielder who was destined to hit .285 while stealing 25 bags a season with the Mariners. He didn’t have any power, but he could run and made good contact, and scouts were confident he would be an effective offensive weapon. He showed up as a rookie and was pretty much the expected player. However, he struggles in 2016, was dealt in to the Diamondbacks, and struggled yet again. Last season he was passable, but the speed and average just didn’t show up. The speed isn’t there in 2019 either, but all of a sudden he’s on pace to blow past 40 homers. What the hell is going on with Marte?
25 years old
Bats/Throws: Both/Right
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 175 lbs
Position: Second Base, Shortstop, Outfield
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2012 |
A |
69 |
.249 |
0 |
24 |
39 |
15 |
.566 |
|
2013 |
A, A+ |
117 |
.295 |
1 |
37 |
79 |
20 |
.687 |
|
2014 |
AA, AAA |
128 |
.304 |
4 |
55 |
79 |
29 |
.746 |
|
2015 |
Rk, A, AAA |
68 |
.321 |
3 |
29 |
43 |
20 |
.783 |
|
2016 |
A, AAA |
9 |
.234 |
1 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
.701 |
|
2017 |
AAA |
70 |
.338 |
6 |
41 |
62 |
7 |
.905 |
|
Minors |
523 |
.296 |
17 |
211 |
352 |
109 |
.731 |
|
|
2015 |
MLB |
57 |
.283 |
2 |
25 |
25 |
8 |
.753 |
|
2016 |
MLB |
119 |
.259 |
1 |
55 |
55 |
11 |
.610 |
|
2017 |
MLB |
73 |
.260 |
5 |
30 |
60 |
3 |
.740 |
|
2018 |
MLB |
153 |
.260 |
14 |
68 |
68 |
6 |
.768 |
|
2019 |
MLB |
71 |
.286 |
20 |
50 |
50 |
3 |
.906 |
|
|
Per |
162 |
.267 |
14 |
61 |
78 |
11 |
.746 |
THE SKILLS
“Though he’ll go through stretches where he can get too aggressive, he’s willing to get on base via walk. There’s some natural loft from his hand drop, but his light build and lack of weight transfer makes hitting for power unlikely. He’s a borderline plus-plus runner though… The ceiling is leadoff hitting centerfielder who steals 30 to 40 bases a year with solid on-base percentages… While power will never be a calling card, Marte’s average, stolen base potential and MI eligibility make him of interest to fantasy owners in moderately sized leagues.”
That scouting report was echoed by… everyone. So, what happened to Marte, after he stole 109 bases with 17 homers in 523 minor league games?
Marte has never run in the bigs with a high of 11 steals and a total of 31 in 472 big-league games.
Marte had 22 homers coming into the season, that is in more than 1,400 at-bats. Marte has three homers in two games and six homers in eight games pushing his season total to 20. Twenty. That puts him on pace go blow past 40-homers on the year. He doesn’t even have 300 at-bats this season. So how is this happening, other than the possibility that we are currently living in the Matrix?
Exit Velocity
Marte’s exit velocity is up at 90.9 mph, a career best (career 87.0).
Barrel Rate
Marte has a 12.1 percent barrel rate, about triple his career rate (4.2).
Launch Angle
Marte has an 11.1 launch angle. He never had a mark higher than 7.2 percent the last four season. His current mark is also only one tenth above the league average.
Hard-Hit Rates
Marte has a career best 41.8 percent hard-hit rate. His previous career best was 36.7 percent (the league average is 34.3 percent).
Fly Ball Rates
Marte has a 38 percent fly ball rate, about three percent above the league average. This will be his first season over 35 percent, and his career mark prior to 2019 was 28.6 percent.
Homer to Fly Ball Ratio
Marte’s yearly HR/FB rates in the bigs: 4.4, 1.1, 7.9, 10.9 and 21.7 percent. Yes, Marte has doubled his rate from last season and has way more than doubled his career rate heading into the season (6.7 percent). His power is coming on pitches that are middle away, an odd scenario for a guy who might weight 175 lbs.
Pull Rates
Marte’s really pulling the ball. Last season his pulled fly ball rate was under 20 percent, and the mark had never been higher than 27 percent. This season? Try on 37 percent. Overall, he has a 44 percent pull rate after posting a mark of 36 percent the last two seasons.
As A Right-Handed Batter
His power is coming on swings that are low in the strike zone. This season, Marte has a .313/.352/.646 slash line with a .333 ISO mark against lefties.
As A Left-Handed Batter
This season, Marte has a .272/.335/.524 slash line with a .251 ISO mark against righties.
PLAYING TIME
Marte has appeared at second base 43 times this season (27 starts). He has appeared only seven times at short, but he qualifies there too given that he had 28 games there last season (27 starts). Marte has also appeared in the outfield 43 times (37 starts). He’s the rare three position player, and that brings a hell of a lot of value in fantasy leagues in 2019.
CONCLUSION
OK, her goes nothing.
Marte has completely changed who he is, and that rarely happens. He’s gone from a slap hitting speedster to a power hitter. The question at this point, is what can we expect moving forward.
If I were to look at the 2019 season alone, here is what I would say. The BB/K of 0.47 ain’t bad, and the 15.5 percent K-rate is great for a guy with power. The GB/FB ratio (1.10), the batted ball data and the HR/FB ratio all seem pretty consistent. I would like to see a fly ball rate higher than 38 percent if we really hope to see 35+ homers, but overall this skill set is supportive of the power we’ve seen.
Now, what happens if we add in the context of who the player is to that 2019 breakdown?
Confusion.
Clearly, Marte has changed his entire offensive game. When a player does this, makes a change of this magnitude, it’s always concerning until the sample size increases. Despite what I said above, it’s simply impossible to divorce who Marte has always been from the man we see today. Note that just 10 days ago Marte had 14 homers, compared to his absurd 20 today. With this overall start though, it’s getting harder and harder not to believe he’ll hit 30 homers this season. Before you think that’s absurd Ray, he’s gonna hit a lot more, realize that Reggie Jackson had 37 homers in the first half in 1969 putting him on pace to set an all-time single season homer record. He hit 10 homers in the second half to give him a career best 47 homers. Will the same fate befall Marte, who is by no means Reggie Jackson? Will his homer pace slow appreciably from this point forward and still allow him to blow past 30 homers? Seems probable on both counts.
With the increased fly ball rate, the .285 BABIP of late (2017-19), and the relatively modest BB/K rate, it’s fair to suggest that that the .286 batting average will likely regress. So, let’s play a game. Let’s say he hits .270 this season with eight steals. That would give him, say, a .270-35-95-95-7 season. If he hits those five numbers, and realize that would be a phenomenal season. Marte will hit .258-15-45-45-4. That doesn’t look great, does it?
If you added Marte, might as well continue to ride him. No harm or foul in doing that.
If you’re looking to make a deal to add Marte, I would suggest caution for the reasons listed above.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
