Unearthing value is perhaps the most rewarding aspect of fantasy football. Well, besides winning.
Those that drafted George Kittle in the 12th round last year know what I mean. The same goes for Patrick Mahomes’ drafters at the Round 10/11 turn. Finding players that blow past their average draft position and turn into league winners can help either salvage a squad that was subjected to early-season injury, or let you steamroll the competition as you blow by them for first place.
One way to extract value in your leagues is to targets some of last year’s most-hyped players that fell short of expectations. Deemed “post-hype sleepers”, these are players that had a lot of hype in 2018, and for whatever reason (injury, poor performance, etc.), have become a sleeper or value pick this season. These types of plays aren’t always going to lead to homeruns, but they often have potential ceilings that are worth taking dart throws at the right cost.
Let’s go through a few of last year’s most-hyped players that failed and see how they can rebound in 2019.
All average draft position information was taken from FantasyFootballCalculator.
Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos
2018 ADP: RB15
2019 ADP: RB39
This time last year, everything was lining up for third-round pick Royce Freeman to take over the lead duties in Denver. The Broncos had just spent significant draft capital on him (third round) and there was a significant amount of carries open with C.J. Anderson (245 carries) and Jamaal Charles (67) out of the picture. Unfortunately for Freeman, UDFA Phillip Lindsay’s emergence put the brakes on that quickly, with Lindsay taking over lead back duties coming out of training camp. Freeman slid down to second on the depth chart while Lindsay went on to put up an RB13 fantasy season.
Lindsay continues to work his way back from a wrist injury suffered late last year and is scheduled to finally make his debut in training camp. Freeman has taken advantage of the extra snaps in OTA’s and reportedly looked impressive in minicamp. Lindsay remains a massive roadblock after how he performed in 2018. There’s no getting around it. However, if Lindsay were to face another injury or reaggravate his wrist, there’s a massive ceiling to be had for Freeman. Lindsay’s size 5’-8”, 190 pounds doesn’t exactly scream “bellcow” in today’s NFL, and I’d much rather draft Freeman at his suppressed ADP as a flex play with immense upside.
Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions
2018 ADP: WR28
2019 ADP: WR42
Prior to season-ending injury, Marvin Jones ranked 17th in Air Yards and was the fantasy WR26, just a hair behind teammate Golden Tate (WR25). Through his first nine games, Jones was on pace to finish with a 62-903-9 stat line. That would’ve netted him a WR23 finish just behind Calvin Ridley. Yes, the Lions would like to be a run-heavy squad, but their defense didn’t necessarily allow that forcing the 2018 Lions to finish middle of the pack in terms of run/pass balance. They’ve made some improvements on paper, and while the run percentage could see a few ticks up in it’s direction, Jones should still command a sizable percentage of the team’s targets.
Over the past three years, he’s seen a 19% target share for each of the last three seasons. That remarkable consistency makes him one of the easier projections for the 2019 season penciling him in just above the 100-target mark. At WR42 in current ADP, Jones is a terrific value that’s being discounted too severely following his injury-shortened 2018 campaign.
Carlos Hyde, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
2018 ADP: RB25
2019 ADP: RB45
Last year’s RB25 ranking was more indicative of the ambiguous situation surrounding Cleveland’s backfield between Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb, and Duke Johnson. Hyde ended up starting the year as the lead back, averaging 20 touches per game during the first six weeks with Cleveland — fantasy RB16 at the time — before being shipped off to a less valuable role in a committee in Jacksonville.
Hyde now enters this offseason as the RB2 in Andy Reid’s fantasy-friendly offense, backing up Damien Williams. Williams is set to see a workhorse role, but we’ve never seen him handle a workload greater than 100 touches in a season at the NFL level. Longevity concerns are warranted. Hyde showed last year that he’s still capable of seeing 20 touches per game, alleviating any type of volume worries on his behalf. Hyde has also reportedly looked fantastic in minicamp already having command of the playbook and the offense.
Now there’s certainly a legitimate possibility that Williams plays all 16 games and keeps Hyde at bay. But fantasy football is a numbers game and there’s a chance that Hyde takes over starter duties at some point in the season. Reid’s offense has created a top-16 fantasy back 16-of-20 seasons. Despite arbitrary cutoffs there, the point remains — it’s an incredibly valuable role and worth investing in at RB45 prices.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
2018 ADP: WR15
2019 ADP: WR41
Another veteran on the list, Larry Fitzgerald’s disappointing season can be summed up in two words — Josh Rosen. Fitzgerald’s targets per game dropped from 10.1 per game to 7.0. His yards per route run dropped from 1.78 down to 1.38 — a rate he hasn’t seen this low since 2012 during the Kevin Kolb/John Skelton/Ryan Lindley era.
Entering his age-36 season, Fitzgerald will now have a new crop of receivers to show the ropes, but make no mistake about it, Fitzgerald isn’t cooked. He’s a byproduct of a terrible quarterback and a terrible offensive system last year. Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid concepts should help get the most out of the aging vet, while also allowing him to rotate receivers heavily and keep them fresh. Heavy passing in what likely projects as negative gamescript means we could be in for a significant number of targets in Arizona.
Fitzgerald’s maintained a target share north of 24.3% over the past three seasons. He just signed a two-year deal this offseason to stay with Arizona and even with minor regression, it’s hard not to project him for at least a 20% share. The wheels will eventually fall off, but at WR4 prices for a guy who finished as the fantasy WR11 in 2016 and the fantasy WR4 in 2017, I’m willing to roll the dice one more time.
Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers
2018 ADP: TE5
2019 ADP: TE14
One of my current favorite value picks in fantasy drafts has been grabbing Greg Olsen late in the double-digit rounds. We are getting a massive injury discount combined with a potential retirement discount making Olsen one of this year’s best value plays.
Injuries the past two seasons have made drafters wary about taking Olsen, but at TE14, you can drop him without a second thought if he gets banged up again. From 2012-2016, Olsen had 100-plus targets each season while reaching the 1,000-yard mark in three-of-five. He was the fantasy TE3, TE5, TE5, TE7, and TE7 during that five-year span.
His injury history is certainly something for us to worry about in bestball leagues, but even if he plays half a season, his ceiling weeks will be worth it. Over the last three years when he’s seen at least four or more targets, he’s averaged 11.8 points per game. There’s still a role for that type of performance, especially in an ascending offense like the one in Carolina.
