Welcome to the weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one- and two-dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
WEEK 13 PREVIEW
Well, it’s a fairly straightforward week of analysis for us. How much will you bid on Yordan Alvarez? Not only is he the most noteworthy FAAB target this week, he’s the one many have been saving for. If you thought Austin Riley started his career on a heater, how about Air Yordan? .385 BA, .579 OBP, 3 HR, 7 R, 7 RBI through his first four games (19 PA) and crushing the ball hard and with ease. The exact type of asset most fantasy squads deficient in power categories need. A savior, perhaps. Very little chance of him getting sent back down to Triple-A, as he seems to be locked into a spot in this lineup rest-of-season, but crazier things have happened in 2019. Most of us may not even be able to afford him, as we’ll see league-mates who have been quiet in FAAB come out of the woodworks to bid.
The question is, how much of your future are you willing to mortgage for his services? Because we still have 14 weeks of baseball to go. If you have, say, $350 of your $1000 budget left and want to drop $320, is having little FAAB for such a long period of time truly worth the opportunity cost of spending resources on a single asset, no matter how high the upside? None of us are in the ‘predicting injuries’ game, and there’s zero reason to assume that here, but it’s worth noting that you’re in big trouble if you acquire him and something does happen to him.
Make sure that you have a good gauge on remaining FAAB for your entire league to assess whether you even have a shot at Alvarez. If you feel that you don’t, you still want to pop in a ‘keep-em-honest’ bid just in case. Personally, I’m interested, but not to the point where I’m willing to spend almost every single FAAB dollar I have where I’ll be stressing bidding periods every weekend and having nothing to work with. Assess your roto categories before all else. If you’re near the top of HR/RBI categories, perhaps spending almost all your dough isn’t the best idea. If those are your weakest categories or you stand the most to gain in them, then perhaps spending up for Alvarez is the way to go. Any way you slice it, he’s been the most-heralded prospect of the last few months for a reason. He’ll have his bumps in the road like every other rookie ever has, but should make a significant, positive impact for your squad. Is he worth every last FAAB penny? No one is.
Two-Start Pitchers
TIER 1 – Locked in, all formats
Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Jose Berrios, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Mike Clevinger, Luis Castillo, Mike Soroka, Cole Hamels, Patrick Corbin, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda
TIER 2 – Locked in, most formats
- Brandon Woodruff (@ SDP, v CIN)
- Joey Lucchesi (v MLW, @ PIT)
- Masahiro Tanaka (v TB, v HOU) – tough matchups but still usable
- Lance Lynn (v CLE, v CHW) – nice two-step on paper
- Yonny Chirinos (@ NYY, @ OAK) – tough on paper but performances inspire confidence
- Zach Eflin, Jake Arrieta (@ WAS, v MIA)
- David Price, Rick Porcello (@ MIN, v TOR) – that first start for both is a doozy
TIER 3 – Start in 15-teamers, situational based on your ratios or wins/k’s in 12’s
*ownership listed in 12-team NFBC OC’s for biddable guys
- Miles Mikolas, 98% (v MIA, v LAA) – no longer a dependable asset
- Tyler Skaggs, 77% (@ TOR, @ STL) – some lefty crushers on these teams but should be okay
- Marcus Stroman, 98% (v LAA, @ BOS) – struggling lately; definitely not safe
- Yusei Kikuchi, 68% (v KC, v BAL) – bounced back @ MIN after 16 ER over three starts; nice on paper
- Danny Duffy, 18% (@ SEA, v MIN) – has pitched well enough to earn entry into this group
- J.A. Happ, 100% (v TB, v HOU) – rough season and the opponents are tough this week
- Felix Pena, 57% (@ TOR, @ STL) – bumpy road from start to start but nice K upside
- Adrian Sampson, 35% (v CLE, v CWS) – such a great stretch this past month that he’s earned trust
TIER 4 – Frisky and Risky
*ownership listed in 12-team NFBC OC’s for biddable guys
- Zach Plesac, 93% (@ TEX, v DET) – three good starts, one bad. Matchups safe enough to use
- Michael Pineda, 40% (v BOS, @ KC) – slight improvement allowing just one HR in his last four starts after serving up six in his two prior; that start vs. Red Sox is the one that builds in doubt
- Wade Miley (@ CIN, @ NYY) – 1.91 hERA, 4.50 rERA so take that with grain of salt; I’ll pass on this road duo
- Mike Fiers, 29% (v BAL, v TB) – Trust him more at home (hWHIP 0.95, rWHIP 1.32) but those TB lefties freak me out; still streamable and worth a shot in 15-teamers
- Elieser Hernandez, 0% (@ STL, @ PHI) – a fresh new name who might cost a few FAAB $’s in 15’s
TIER 5 – Tread carefully (dicey options even for deep/15-team leagues)
*ownership listed in 15-team NFBC Main Events for biddable guys
- Brett Anderson, 36% (v BAL, v TB) – decent five-game stretch earns him touch of confidence
- Ryan Yarbrough (@ NYY, @ OAK) – big K upside, tough starts (Stanton/Judge coming back, OAK crushes lefties) so I probably wouldn’t bid for on him this week
- Homer Bailey, 10% (@ SEA, v MIN) – very risky for those with unhealthy ERA/WHIP, but some strikeout upside for deeper leagues
- Jason Vargas (@ ATL, @ CHC)
- Jhoulys Chacin, 32% (@ SDP, v CIN)
- Shaun Anderson (@ LAD, @ ARI)
- Erick Fedde (v PHI, v ATL)
TIER 6 – Avoid outright
- Anthony DeSclafani (v HOU, @ MLW)
- Tyler Beede (@ LAD, @ ARI)
- Antonio Senzatela (@ ARI, @ LAD)
- Gabriel Ynoa (@ OAK, @ SEA)
- Daniel Norris (@ PIT, @ CLE)
- Edwin Jackson (v LAA, @ BOS)
SINGLE-STARTERS / STASHES
- Jordan Yamamoto (RHP/MIA) – Don’t go crazy here. A cool name and a solid MLB debut (7 IP – 3 H – 0 ER – 2 BB – 5 K), but there’s going to be plenty of uncertainty in these final two rotation spots behind Richards/Alcantara/Lopez in the coming weeks. Yamamoto isn’t a highly regarded prospect, Caleb Smith (hip) has already resumed throwing and could be back as soon as next weekend, and top prospect Zac Gallen may be given the call soon. Yamamoto and Elieser Hernandez’s starts were swapped where Hernandez now toes the rubber on Monday which means a two-start week for him and possibly just one for Yamamoto. One of these guys will certainly be optioned back down to Triple-A when Smith returns, and the other when Gallen is up. We’ve been burned similarly with Devin Smeltzer so be careful that you’re not overspending here.
- Daniel Ponce de Leon (RHP/STL) – In the rotation for now and lines up for a start against the Marlins at home this week. Had some success at the major league level last season and in one start earlier this year. Somewhat concerning ratios in Triple-A (3.90 ERA, 6.54 xFIP, 12.2% BB) but a nice single start this week and only 28% in NFBC 15-teamers. Note that he may be one-and-done if Alex Reyes is deemed ready to join the rotation.
- Zach Godley (RHP/ARI) – There’s no full confirmation yet, but with Jon Duplantier hitting the injured list, a rotation spot has opened back up. Godley has regressed majorly since his 2017 breakout, but if he does jump back into the rotation, it’ll likely be back-to-back starts against those lowly Giants.
SCHEDULE NOTES
NL Teams with 7 games: MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS, CIN, MLW, STL, LAD, SFG
AL Teams with 7 games: BAL, NYY, TBR, TOR, CLE, KC, MIN, HOU, LAA, OAK, SEA, TEX
Teams with 5 games: PIT, CHW, DET
Getting the bad out of the way, be careful with Pirates this week as they get just five games and possibly four opposing left-handed pitchers. That means we bench Colin Moran, Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco. Blue Jays may also see four southpaws so we’ll be less likely to use Rowdy Tellez, Cavan Biggio and Justin Smoak. That said, Tellez does have a .271 ISO against lefties but also a 29.4% strikeout rate. Despite the good fortune against LHP, I wouldn’t roll him out there this week.
The best schedules on paper this week belong to the Mariners, Brewers and Indians.
RENTALS
- Mariners have a lovely seven at home taking on the Royals (3) and Orioles (4). You’re playing the usual suspects (Ency, Santana, Mallex, Vogelbach, Dee Gordon) and may want to consider picking up Kyle Seager if he’s still available (currently projecting five RHP). If you’re looking for help in deeper formats, it gets a bit dicier as Dylan Moore, Tom Murphy, Mac Williamson and Tim Beckham could be helpful, but they all either aren’t good offensively (Moore, Williamson) or play sparingly (Murphy, Beckham). Perhaps we catch lightning in a bottle with Mac for a week.
- Brewers visit the Padres for three then back home for four against the Reds. They’ll face five righties so guys like Eric Thames and Travis Shaw may be decent power boosts if still available in your 12-teamer. We wait on streaming Hernan Perez in 15-teamers until we see a bunch of lefties coming up.
- Love the Indians’ schedule with four hot ones in Texas against the Rangers and three back home against the Tigers. Three lefties coming up means it’s a good time to stream Roberto Perez again (.295 ISO, .404 wOBA). Jordan Luplow has played sparingly of late, but with the LHP coming up, it may be a good time to try to catch power lightning in a bottle this week in deeper leagues.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
**under 90% owned in NFBC Main Event
Catchers – Pedro Severino (RH/BAL), Tyler Flowers (RH/ATL)
Corner Infielders – Dom Smith OF/1B (LH/NYM), Cheslor Cuthbert (RH/KCR), Justin Bour (LH/LAA)
Middle Infielders – Joey Wendle 2B/3B (LH/TBR), Nick Ahmed (RH/ARI), Jose Iglesias (RH/CIN)
Outfielders – *Yordan Alvarez (LH/HOU), Anthony Santander (SW/BAL), Jordan Luplow (RH/CLE), Cesar Puello (RH/LAA), Brandon Nimmo (LH/NYM)
Absolutely no one here to break to bank over, but Mets’ Smith is available in over 35% of NFBC 15-teamers and deserves a little respect for a fine season thus far (.341/.434/.553, 13% BB, 20% K). The problem this week is that the Mets see quite a few lefties on the mound and Smith typically doesn’t start against them so it’s a tough week to use him. Cuthbert is holding down 3B until Hunter Dozier returns and that might be another week or two. Power-hitting Bour is back to step in and play against right-handed pitching. A potential add in deeper formats with the Angels possibly seeing six RHP in seven games.
Santander is a switch-hitting Rule 5 pick who’s had a hot stretch since getting called up, hitting .357 with a .400 OBP in 28 AB but with no homers or swipes. He likely has a bit more run in this lineup with DJ Stewart slow on the mend and not returning when first eligible to come off the IL. Santander has hit second in this lineup a few times and the seven-game schedule for the Orioles this week isn’t bad.
Nimmo listed but probably another week away from even being a stash. He was scratched from a Triple-A game on Friday with neck soreness and is no longer on track to return to the Mets next week. Just here to be on your radar for the future.
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
*Under 90% owned in NFBC 12-team leagues
Catchers – Chance Sisco (LH/BAL), Roberto Perez (RH/CLE)
Corner Infielders – Kyle Seager (LH/SEA), Garrett Cooper 1B/OF (RH/MIA), Brian Anderson 3B/OF (RH/MIA), Gio Urshela (RH/NYY)
Middle Infielders – Nicky Lopez (LH/KCR), Chris Taylor 2B/SS/OF (RH/LAD), Kevin Newman (RH/PIT), Willy Adames (RH/TBR)
Outfielders – *Yordan Alvarez (LH/HOU), Corey Dickerson (LH/PIT), Harrison Bader (RH/STL), Jackie Bradley Jr (LH/BOS), Jacoby Jones (RH/DET), Eric Thames OF/1B (LH/MLW)
A handful of assets worth a look beyond just this week. Dickerson is on the trade block and you might get lucky with him finding his way into an actual hitters’ park. Cooper has been the Marlins’ most consistent hitter over the last couple weeks, though that .381 these last two weeks can be .190 the next weeks in a split second.
Newman is just one percent owned in 12’ers, has very little pop and hasn’t been running much, but he’s been this team’s leadoff man for a couple weeks now and is a prized team prospect finally getting the look he deserves. Better in real life than fantasy, Newman did swipe 28 bags in Triple-A last year. Just three so far in 153 PA, but I’d expect to see him be more comfortable and jump at opportunities more frequently in the future.
