The Marlins called up Yamamoto and not Gallen. Why? Are the cracked? Are they tanking? Is something else going on? Hint: we will discuss the 40-man roster. How long will Brett Anderson last as a usable piece? What about DeSclafani? Eflin is rolling for the Phillies, but should you be selling? Ditto Kelly with the D’backs. Is there anything to worry about with Hamels? Guess not. Lucchesi is pitching well enough, without standing out. Plesac has had a strong start to his big-league career. Will he be able to extend it? Woodruff has been dominant. Ditto Verlander, but boy those homers.
PROSPECTS AND THE 40-MAN ROSTER
Jordan Yamamoto was called up over Zac Gallen by the Marlins, and there was palpable anger. I mean, look at the minor league numbers, and note that Yamamoto has been at Double-A whereas Gallen has seen his time at Triple-A.
|
|
W-L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
K/BB |
GB/FB |
|
Gallen |
8-1 |
1.57 |
0.70 |
10.88 |
6.50 |
1.18 |
|
Yamamoto |
3-5 |
3.58 |
1.19 |
8.82 |
2.56 |
1.15 |
So why was Yamamoto called, other than the fact that the Marlins don’t care (a false narrative)?
1 – Prospect rankings matter.
Yamamoto was ranked as a better prospect than Gallen coming into the 2019 season by Baseball America (see pp. 252-53 of their Prospect Handbook).
Yamamoto was ranked as a better prospect than Gallen coming into the 2019 season by MLB Pipeline.
Yamamoto was ranked as a lower prospect than Gallen coming into the 2019 season by Baseball Prospectus.
As much as we all want to see Gallen because the numbers jump off the page, it’s far from clear that the scouting community clearly favors him over Yamamoto in a head-to-head.
2 – Numbers aren’t the only thing that matters.
Gallen has better numbers, you cannot argue that. However, there’s more to being called up than just numbers. As noted, many feel that Yamamoto is a better talent. Second, as Jeff Mans pointed out in this writeup, the skillset of Yamamoto seemed like a very good match for the opponent that he was being called up to face in the Cardinals. Looks like Mans, and the Marlins, were right given the performance Yamamoto tossed out there (seven scoreless innings).
3 – There’s the 40-man roster to consider.
Follow me here.
There are 25 active players on a big-league roster at any given time.
Teams can use the 7-day, 10-day IL lists, as well as the paternity/family medical emergency lists to call up players to give them 25 active players if someone is unable to play. However, there is a catch.
- In order for a player to be promoted to the 25-man roster he has to be on the 40-man roster.
- If a club wants to call up a player who is not on the 40-man roster, they have to remove someone from the 40-man roster.
- If a player is removed from the 40-man roster he must be (1) traded, (2) released, (3) transferred to the 60-day IL or (4) designated for assignment. So, more clearly, if the player isn’t hurt and able to be moved to the 60-day IL, a team must – in essence – lose a player to make room for the new player to be added. Teams aren’t in the habit of losing players if they can help it.
So, going back to the Marlins situation… guess who wasn’t on the 40-man roster? Yep, Gallen. Guess who was on the 40-man roster? Yep, Yamamoto.
So, before you freak out about why a guy isn’t called up, do some digging. It would also be wise to take a look at how the big-league roster is currently constructed before you preemptively add a hot shot prospect thinking he’s gonna get called up soon.
- We don’t know how much work Yamamoto will get moving forward. He’s a streaming type option in mixed leagues at the moment, nothing more, whoe profiles as a 4th or 5th starter at the big league level. He doesn’t overpower batters, and is more of a feel pitcher who grades out as slightly better than average.
$129 gets you MLB VIP DFS coverage for the season AND #Free access to every sport on the site from now through July 31st.
SOME ARM UPDATES
Brett Anderson allowed four runs in back-to-back outings, and it seemed like it was about to end. By that, I mean the success he’s had. Surely there would be an injury in the near future, and there obviously might still be (it’s likely), but his performance has rebounded of late. Over his last five outings he’s allowed three earned runs or less each time out, and in 8-striaght outings he’s lasted at least five innings. Still flirting with performance danger. All you need to do is to look at a 4.92 K/9 rate, a 3.20 BB/9 rate, to understand that.
Anthony DeSclafani was an undercover option heading into the start of the season, one that I thought was a solid end of the draft option. Through 13 starts, the results have been mixed. The last two times out he’s allowed a single run, and since his second start of the season he’s never allowed more than four earned runs in an outing. That said, he owns a 4.43 ERA on the year that is very close to that 4.36 SIERA and 4.52 xFIP. Right now, it’s a league average package that includes an 8.86 K/9 rate, a 1.32 WHIP and the scary high 1.94 HR/9 rate. Those homers continue to hold him back, and we’re up to a whopping 38 homers his last 180-innings.
Zach Elfin continues to generate outs, even if he’s not dominant. In 13 outings Eflin has a 1.15 WHIP. He’s really held down righties with a .234/.267/.316 slash line, but I gotta tell you. Between you and me, he just doesn’t have the game to continue along at that level. He just doesn’t. He doesn’t overpower folks, the K/9 rate is 7.29 against righties, and it’s hard to envision a true scenario where the HR/FB ratio stays at 5.9 percent (his mark against righties). I still think it would be wise to see what he could bring in a deal.
Cole Hamels allowed six runs against the Astros, and folks started to get nervous with the lefty. Was the 35 year old moving toward Just A Guy status in 2019? We’re not even halfway through the campaign, but I cannot see him becoming that. Further, he’s stamped his return to prominence in an extremely effective manner with some excellent work. In two outings against the Cardinals, and a start in Colorado against the Rockies, Hamels worked at least seven innings each time. Overall, he walked four batters, struck out 23 and allowed one unearned run over 22 innings. So much for the concerns.
Merrill Kelly allowed eight runs in back-to-back outings to leave his ERA at 4.83. Even those hoping for something of value likely moved on at that point. What’s happened since? He’s performed extremely well of course. In three outings, all seven innings or more, he’s allowed just two solo homers to drop his ERA more than a run down to 3.73. He’s also struck out 18 batters while issuing two walks. That’s more like it. Still, a 57 percent first pitch strike rate and 9.2 percent swinging strike rate on the year are way below league average, and that 1.19 GB/FB ratio doesn’t exactly warm the heart either.
Lance Lynn has thrown at least six innings in each of his last nine outings. In each of the last seven, he’s tossed a quality start up there. Seven in a row folks. Over those seven outings he’s struck out 57 batters in 45.1 innings. He’s also posted a 3.18 ERA, a 1.59 BB/9 and a 1.10 WHIP. He’s pitching very well, especially when you consider that he’s faced the Red Sox and Astros on the road during the streak. He isn’t still on waivers, is he?
Joey Lucchesi has allowed three earned runs or less in 6-of-7 starts. Solid enough. He has a 4.11 ERA on the year though, and the homers are starting to increase. He’s allowed at least one big fly in 5-straight games (six total), though he still has 33 punchouts in 31 innings in those outings. He’s been a totally diff pitcher at home (3.11 ERA, .264 wOBA) than on the road (5.88 ERA, .318 wOBA).
A 24 year old rookie, the Indians’ Zach Plesac has made four starts. An early report card. He has a 7.30 K/9, a 1.82 BB/9, a 0.97 WHIP. Solid looking work. However, he has a .222 BABIP, a 94 percent left on base rate and a 1.82 HR/9 rate. All of those numbers belie the overall look. The 9.0 swinging strike rate doesn’t measure up, the first pitch strike rate is 61 percent, and the 26 percent O-swing (swings on pitches outside the zone) rate ain’t very good. He’s certainly not embarrassed himself, but there’s not much to get excited about.
Brandon Woodruff has 16 Ks his last two outings after a blowup against the Pirates (six runs in four innings) as he’s tossed back-to-back quality starts. That’s actually 6-of-7 outings with a QS, and going back to April 27th he’s posted some kinda numbers: 6-0, 2.85 ERA, 10.47 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9. #MightyImpressive
Justin Verlander is 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 125 punchouts in 100.2 innings. He’s been terrific. He’s also allowed a whopping 17 homers in 15 outings leading to a massive 1.52 HR/9. He’s never had a mark of 1.20 before. All those homers, and all those fly balls, always leave him in more danger than the overall numbers suggest.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
