Happy Friday my Fantasy Guru fam! Once again we are taking a tour through the Mind of Marsal. This week I wanted to chat about two tight ends that could have very strong seasons, but one comes at a much cheaper price and offers just as much upside, if not more. Let’s not waste any more time and jump right into it.
EVAN ENGRAM VS. GEORGE KITTLE
I recently did a poll on Instagram asking people who they thought was going to have a better fantasy football season between George Kittle and Evan Engram. I was actually shocked to see that over 90 percent of the voters said Kittle. I am a Kittle fan myself, but I think it is much closer than the voters suggested. Both of these tight ends have displayed nice ceilings and the ability to be very efficient players.
George Kittle, 49ers
When I dug into the numbers, a couple of things really stood out to me. Not taking anything away from Kittle for his phenomenal 2018 season, but there is some potential regression up ahead. Last season, Kittle was peppered with 136 targets, catching 88 of them for 1,377 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 86.1 yards per game and 15.6 yards per catch, with an aDot of 7.65 yards.
Although he averaged 86.1 yards per game, he fell short of 85 yards in 10-of-16 games last season. Of the five touchdowns he scored, three were from 40+ yards out. In addition, if you look through his game log from last season, he averaged over 19 yards per catch four times. Lastly, six of his 88 catches went for over 40 yards, which was the highest of any tight end by more than double. These numbers indicate that he relied heavily on the big play.
The chart below displays the touchdown distance for each of Kittle’s touchdowns last season.
| Touchdown distance |
| 82 yards |
| 10 yards |
| 5 yards |
| 85 yards |
| 43 yards |
Based on current ADP rankings, Kittle is currently being drafted in the third round, which is a bit too rich for my likings. To put it into perspective, he was being drafted in the 11th round last season, despite showing some nice upside as a rookie. In fact, he had a higher catch rate his rookie season and was efficient.
I also looked at the red zone numbers and Kittle has seen a decent amount of looks in the red zone so far in his young career (35). He has a 54 percent catch rate and has scored in 21 percent of his red zone catches. While the catch rate seems fine, the efficiency in scoring is eye-popping to me. Both Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce who are going early as well, have each converted over 50 percent of their red zone catches into touchdowns in the last two seasons. This is something that really stood out to me.
Evan Engram, Giants
Some will say that Engram was disappointing last season and when you are looking at it from a return on investment point of view, you might have a case. However, even then, the numbers looked fine to me. He only played 11 games, but had a 15 percent higher catch rate, averaged more yards per game and a higher yards per catch than he did as a rookie.
I like to look at how a player finishes a season, as that can be used as momentum for the following season and Engram closed out strong. In his final four games of the year, he had over 70 receiving yards in each game. During that stretch, there was no Odell Beckham Jr., as he was out due to injuries, which is worth pointing out since Beckham is no longer with the team. In fact, there is a pretty solid sample size to look at for Engram with and without Beckham on the field.
Over 26 games, Engram and Beckham were both on the field in 11 games, whereas Engram was on the field in 15 games without him. When Beckham was on the field, Engram averaged 3.5 receptions, 5.6 targets, 37.6 receiving yards, and 8.9 fantasy points per game. However, he averaged 4.7 receptions, 7.8 targets, 59.1 receiving yards, and 13.3 fantasy points per game, with Beckham off the field.
These are pretty significant changes in production for Engram. I know that the Giants signed Golden Tate, but Beckham received 124 targets last season, so there are plenty of targets to go around and I think it is safe to say that Engram should receive a solid percentage of those his way. Not to mention, Engram has displayed how efficient he can be in the red zone catching 61 percent of his red zone targets and scoring in 82 percent of his red zone catches. Granted it is still a small sample size, but if you watched some of his games, there is no denying that he is very good in the red zone.
MY THOUGHTS
By now I would guess you already have an idea on which one of the two I prefer having in my roster. If you are still wondering, it is Engram. Look, I think both of these tight ends are good and they can each finish as top 5 tight ends. With that said, I really like what I am seeing in the numbers for Engram and I think that a breakout is certainly possible for him. He offers a good combination of a solid floor and a high ceiling. Kittle offers the same, but when you dig into the numbers, regression is likely. While they are very close in my eyes, one comes at a far more expensive price and that is the ultimate reason why I would easily take Engram this season over Kittle. As far as raw points is concerned, I think that is close too. I’d still lean Engram, although most will disagree, but I think that the touchdown upside and the efficiency in the red zone gives him a boost in potential fantasy points. And when you talk about bang for your buck, for me it is easily Engram, and it’s not that close, as you get a three round discount with a player that has a good shot at finishing higher or close enough in fantasy production.
That’s it for this week’s Mind of Marsal. If there is something you all would like for me to delve into in this series, feel free to make suggestions. You can reach out on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal. Until next week!
