Is that hot starting player going to stay hot, or is there something in the data that suggest a downward turn is on the horizon? Conversely, what about that guy that is a major drain on your club at the moment. Is he going to continue to smell like rancid meat, or is there a chance that he will be able to turn around that sluggish start to enter the usable department piece in the fantasy game? Ray Flowers takes a look at 10 players – five on the way up and five on the way down – as he tries to put their perform into context, irrespective of the end results.
I HAVE A CHANCE TO BE BETTER THAN IT SEEMS
My BABIP is crazy low: Maikel Franco .197, Yonder Alonso .199, Jurickson Profar .204, Joc Pederson .216, Jay Bruce .216, Albert Pujols .216, Edwin Encarnacion .220, Jose Ramirez .221, Brett Gardner .223, Ryan O’Hearn .225.
*Min. 100 batted ball events unless otherwise noted which is 248 batters.
Brian Anderson is 10th in baseball with a 51.6 percent hard-hit rate. He’s hitting the ball hard despite that terrible .246 average. Anderson has increased his fly ball rate ever so slightly while dropping his ground ball rate moving his GB/FB from 1.82 last year to 1.67 this year. He’s also jumped his HR/FB rate from 8.3 to 13.0 percent. He’s increased his launch angle by three tenths, not much, but against he’s hitting it hard with the exit velocity up 1.1 mph and his hard-hit rate is up eight percent as well. He should be better the rest of the way.
I don’t think Jay Bruce need to be better than he has been to have to have value. Some context. Last season Joey Gallo went .206-40-92-82. No one questioned whether they should draft him this year, did they? No one wants to drop him when he performs at that pace, do they? Back to Bruce. If he were to continue his current pace Bruce would go .232-43-90-80. How many times has Gallo gone .232-43-90-80? The answer is never. So why is it that every day, someone asks me about dropping Bruce or if they should add him off waivers?
Josh Donaldson has a 93.0 mph exit velocity which is sixth in baseball and his 50.3 percent hard-hit rate is 16th. Seems like most of his owners could care less though. On virtually a daily basis I get a note from someone asking me if they should drop Donaldson for X or Y. The general answer to this question is a resounding no. Yes, he’s hitting .236 with a .418 SLG. The batted ball data says the numbers should improve. In fact, his 93.0 mph exit velocity is the best he’s had in five years, and that includes the seasons when he was going 35-120. His hard-hit rate is also a career best, better then those seasons he as vying for MVP awards. If healthy, he should be better.
JaCoby Jones is 21st in baseball in hard-hit rate (49.1). He is also 24th in exit velocity (92.1). Over his last 18 games, Jones has been on fire with an impressive .410-4-14-9-4. Yes, power and speed. Also toss in there a .494 wOBA in that time, and he’s already better than he seems. Add in the batted ball data, and the speed he also owns, and you can see why he’s likely undervalued.
Justin Smoak is 8th in baseball with a 0.91 BB/K ratio. He is seventh in the game with a 16.3 percent walk rate. Smoak is also 35th in baseball barrel percentage and 63rd in exit velocity. Despite all that he has a .229 batting average and .794 OPS. Just terrible. But, the batted ball data suggests otherwise. His exit velocity is a half mph above normal for him. His hard-hit rate is only down two percent. Interestingly, his expected SLG is .559 which is .060 points clear of his five year average. The power should continue along and the batting average should improve. Hell, he already has a .366 OBP which would be a career best.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN IF I CAN KEEP THIS UP
My BABIP is crazy high: David Dahl .429, Brandon Lowe .389, Joey Gallo .385, Austin Meadows .383, Yoan Moncada .378, Javier Baez .377, Jeff McNeil .374, Jorge Polanco .370
*Min. 100 batted ball events unless otherwise noted which is 248 batters.
Tim Anderson is in danger folks. I know the surface numbers don’t suggest anything is going on, but it is. Anderson is last in baseball, out of 163 qualifiers, with a 0.15 BB/K ratio. Dead last. As a result, he has a .029 point difference between his batting average (.317) and OBP (.346) which is horrible. Anderson is 138th in exit velocity and he’s barely better in hard-hit rate (108). He’s not even in the top half of the league in exit velocity. He’s living off his amazing start, and his .363 BABIP, which isn’t supported by his batted ball data, or his career .331 BABIP. Over his last 39 games, 147 plate appearances, Anderson has hit .264/.299/.407. As great as he appears to have been, for well over half this season he has been the exact same hitter he has always been (.265/.294/.422).
Howie Kendrick turns 36 in July. He played a total of 131 games the last two seasons and just once in four seasons has he appeared in 120-games as injuries frequently crop up. Further, he’s appeared in 125 games just twice in six years. He’s already at a six year high with 11 homers, and with two RBI he will reach a four year high there as well at 42. A .292 career hitter, he’s at .323 currently. Is he going to refute history and stay healthy? Is he going to refute Father Time who is undefeated? Will he continue this level of success in the batting average category with a career high 33.6 percent fly ball rate that would be his first season over 28.2 percent since 2007? Further, does it make sense that a guy who normally hits eight homers would increase his fly ball rate AND his batting average? How often does that happen?
Jorge Polanco has been terrific. Over his last 141 games, since the start of last season, here are the numbers: .311-16-78-83-9. This season, he’s gone .338-10-36-45-2 putting him on pace to go .338-24-87-109-5. Mike Trout has never done that. Neither has Christian Yelich, or Nolan Arenado etc. Let’s look at the average. Polanco’s not hitting .338 this season. The guy has one season of .285 the last three years. He’s currently rocking a .370 BABIP (career .322). His fly ball rate this season is massive at 49.3 percent (it was 38 percent last year). Here are the number of men who hit .300 last season with a 49 percent fly ball rate: no one. If we look at the seven men who had a fly ball rate of 46 percent last season, none hit .300. In fact, the highest batting average of .278 (Mike Moustakas). Polanco has no shot to keep his average up with all those fly balls. Speaking of the fly balls, they are the only reason he’s on pace for 20-homers. Polanco has a mere 9.4 percent HR/FB rate, and even though that’s a career best, it’s miles away from the league average of more than 14 percent. The homer pace is likely to slow when the fly balls regress. There’s danger ahead in the homer and the batting average categories.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
