We are back for another installment of the #FridayFantasyFocus!
Last week’s segment on Curtis Samuel not only helped me gain a clearer perspective of how to approach him in upcoming fantasy drafts, but a few readers reached out to me as well to discuss my findings.
That’s essentially the goal of this series. To try and illuminate some of the more puzzling players at current ADP and to try and shed some light whether or not we should be buying or selling at current cost.
We’ll start with taking an overall zoomed out look at the team situation — starting with the team’s 2019 outlook, what changes they’ve made this offseason, team tendencies, etc. Then zoom in a bit on projected volume, role that the player will have in the offense, and finally, current ADP. The goal here is after reading this column, you’ll feel comfortable drafting or fading at current cost because of the reasons laid out before you.
This week’s player is one that, quite frankly, I don’t have many shares of despite being in 80-plus bestball leagues already. This is a second-year player that had an incredible rookie season, becoming just one of 15 rookies to start their career with double-digit receiving touchdowns. He ended up posting an overall fantasy finish of WR24 thanks in part to a 64-catch, 821-yard, and 10-touchdown campaign. Let’s dive right in on last year’s No. 26 overall draft pick, Atlanta’s Calvin Ridley.
2019 Atlanta Falcons
Aided by a depleted defense due to injury, the Atlanta Falcons offense in 2018 was one that provided a plethora of fantasy options for us to utilize. Despite a top-10 scoring offense and an efficiently led passing attack, the Falcons decided to depart with Steve Sarkisian after two seasons.
| Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Points Scored | |
| ATL | 4,653 | 36 | 1,573 | 11 | 414 |
| Rank | 4th | 3rd | 27th | 23rd | 10th |
The Falcons instead opted to re-hire Dirk Koetter as their OC. Koetter was Atlanta’s offensive coordinator from 2012-2014 before going to Tampa Bay for the previous four seasons as their OC and eventual Head Coach. He’s coming off back-to-back top-five passing years in Tampa Bay. That philosophy likely won’t change in Atlanta given the pedigree of the passing game and the passing weapons. Matt Ryan performed exceptionally well when working with Koetter in the past, finishing as fantasy QB7, QB15, and QB7. He was top-five in passing yards each of those seasons.
Over the past three years, we’ve seen Ryan throw the ball 534 times, 529 times, and then saw that number skyrocket to 608 times last year. The pass play percentage for Atlanta also spiked last year at 65.3% compared to 56.1% and 57.7% in years’ prior. Was a depleted defense the cause of this? Or was it injuries to the running back position? The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, and if you’re doing any kind of projecting for the Falcons in 2019, you’re scaling back Ryan’s passing attempts.
Devonta Freeman’s injury history is certainly a cause for concern when projecting for 2019. Atlanta opted to forego the run for the most part following Freeman’s injury, turning into a much heavier passing team. If Freeman can stay healthy, the passing game is sure to regress back to 2017/2016 passing volume. Additions to the offensive line could also help get this running game going. The Falcons drafted guard Chris Lindstrom with the 14th overall pick and tackle Kaleb McGary with the 31st pick. Both graded out well against the run and could find themselves starting in Week 1 as the Falcons upgraded the entire right side of their offensive line.
Overall health improvements to the entire defense should see this group return to a respectable form. Atlanta lost key defenders in Deion Jones (Weeks 1-12), Keanu Neal (Weeks 1-17), and Ricardo Allen (Weeks 3-17). Down their starting inside linebacker and both starting safeties, teams were able to throw at will against Atlanta– particularly over the middle with running backs — and routinely keep the chains moving. All three players are set to return in 2019 and should help improve last year’s unit that allowed the eighth-most points against.
Calvin Ridley’s 2019 Role
The emergence of Ridley in this offense has shaken up the historic target share distributions from how the previous receiver trio of Julio Jones, Mohamad Sanu, and Taylor Gabriel operated.
| Year | WR1 Tgts | WR1 Tgt MS | WR2 Tgts | WR2 Tgt MS | WR3 Tgts | WR3 Tgt MS | TE1 Tgts | TE1 Tgt MS |
| 2018 | 170 | 27.6% | 94 | 15.2% | 92 | 14.9% | 88 | 14.3% |
| 2017 | 148 | 27.9% | 96 | 18.1% | 51 | 9.6% | 65 | 12.3% |
| 2016 | 129 | 24.0% | 81 | 15.1% | 50 | 9.3% | 31 | 5.8% |
Gabriel’s 50-ish targets (WR3) skyrocketed with Ryan throwing to Ridley instead in 2018. Despite operating at similar roles and routes run in this offense with comparable average depths of target — Ridley (10.4) compared to Gabriel (10.2, 11.5) — Ridley’s volume ballooned up to 92 targets.
A first-round draft pick, it shouldn’t come as that much of a surprise that Ryan found Ridley a more complete receiver than journeyman Gabriel. Ridley had modest receiving totals in Alabama’s run-heavy program, but had the size (6’-1”, 190-pounds) and speed (4.43) to make an immediate impact at the next level.
Koetter’s pass-happy scheme is one that regularly deploys 11 personnel — three wide receivers, one tight end, and one running back. Koetter’s offense operated out of this formation 77% of the time last year in Tampa Bay on passing plays. Sanu and Hooper will remain in the mix for targets, but should we expect Ridley to outpace them greatly?
As shown in the table above, all three were neck-and-neck last year in target volume in 2018. One would think that entering his second year and coming off such a promising rookie campaign that Ridley should see a step forward in target volume, but he not only has to contend with Sanu and Hooper for targets, but also Julio’s massive 27% target share. Freeman also figures to siphon off targets when healthy.
Historically, we’ve seen the No. 2 wide receiver role average a 16%+ target share over the past three seasons. If we assume Ridley’s game is going to continue to develop and that he’ll command a bigger share of targets — likely at the expense of Sanu and Hooper — it’s not unreasonable to pencil him in for a 19%-20% target share. Remember, in Koetter’s first year in Atlanta (2012), Ryan was capable of supporting two fantasy superstars in Julio (WR11) and Roddy White (WR9). Both of them saw greater than 20% of the team’s passing targets that year. Based off the previous three-year average of Ryan’s throwing attempts (557) and a 19%-20% target share for Ridley, we could potentially see him land in the 106-111 target range.
That type of volume could put him squarely on the WR2 radar once again — even with a presumed decrease of his 10.9% touchdown rate. It should also make him a much more consistent fantasy option seeing more targets per game and providing steady fantasy production.
Average Draft Position
Current mid-June ADP has Ridley going as the fantasy WR24 on both DRAFT (half-PPR) and Bestball10’s (full-PPR). After finishing last year as the fantasy WR22, he’s going at a reasonable rate. Drafters are currently buying him at what’s fair market value, typically in the late fifth round. Drafting Ridley there is absolutely in play depending on current roster construction.
In terms of dynasty, Ridley has turned into a buy for me after going through this exercise.
Photo courtesy of DynastyLeagueFootball.com
For the short term, Ridley has a pass-happy coach in Koetter that already displayed immense success working with Matt Ryan and supplying two top-12 fantasy wide receivers. Julio’s current presence also keeps the pricetag on Ridley suppressed. If an injury were to occur to Julio — he’s taken off for plenty of snaps throughout his career midgame for nagging injuries — Ridley’s target volume should skyrocket. Long term, Ridley’s on an ascending offense where it won’t take long for him to usurp Julio for WR1 status in Atlanta. That’s a valuable role with Ryan at the helm.
If I’m a dynasty contender, I’d be looking to buy Ridley this offseason before he puts up back-to-back WR2 fantasy seasons.
It may be the last chance you get at this current price.
