It seems every offseason there becomes more and more player movement in the NFL. Between free agency, trades, the draft and players getting released, there’s an immense amount of fluctuation surrounding target-shares and how teams will distribute targets. The goal of this article is to evaluate what teams looked like in 2018 and what changes to expect in the upcoming season. Since there’s a wide variety of positions that can affect how touches are distributed, all aspects of rushing and/or receiving could be evaluated in a given piece. The NFL is a complicated beast, but breaking it down piece-by-piece in this fashion can help lighten the load of evaluation.
Here’s how this piece will go. First, we’ll take a look at how things shook out in 2018, focusing on targets, receptions and yards, and discuss any important factors involved that will be different in 2019. Then, we’ll take a look at the up-to-date depth chart for the 2019 season and make educated projections. Let’s dive in.
2018 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Photo courtesy of profootballreference.com
The Super Bowl champions once again mixed and matched their offensive production in 2018, specifically in the receiving game. After Julian Edelman got suspended for the first four games of the season (steroids), there was a lot of questions surrounding who would lead the WR depth chart, and with Josh Gordon in town, they seemingly had their answer. Also, Rob Gronkowski was once again expected to be a dynamic weapon. As the season kicked off, and as they started rolling through games, it became clear Gronkowski wasn’t the hulking presence he was in previous seasons. Because of that, especially with Edelman not playing, the offense took on an old school feel. Dump off passes to James White were a big theme, and being a run-heavy offense was as well. The Patriots did end the season with 4,405 receiving yards, but as seen above, it didn’t result in many exciting fantasy results. White was a major winner here and essentially became a glorified slot WR, even after Edelman returned. Even in the games Gronkowski didn’t play, there wasn’t much to be seen from the rest of the TEs on the roster. TEs were mostly used for blocking purposes. After looking good and playing solid for almost the entire regular season, Gordon ran into more issues off the field and was once again suspended by the NFL. This was a huge blow for a team that didn’t have any deep target weapons beyond him, and while they ended up winning the Super Bowl anyway, it had a distinct effect in their first few games after his exit. The rag-tag group of Phillip Dorsett, Chris Hogan, and Cordarrelle Patterson combined to make some big plays here and there but ultimately failed to find fantasy relevance. Tom Brady was once again an efficient QB (completing 65.8% completion percentage and a 7.6 yards per attempt), but, once again, was very even at distributing targets.
2019 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Photo courtesy of rotoworld.com
Things are going to look much different for the Patriots in 2019. Not only has Gronkowski retired (for now at least!), but they drafted a WR in round one of the NFL draft. Yes, Arizona State WR N’Keal Harry is now a Patriot, and there should be plenty of opportunity for him to emerge as the season moves along. With Gordon suspended and his future uncertain, the Patriots needed to move on and look for alternatives in the time being. Demaryius Thomas, coming off a torn Achilles, is another potential option, but that type of injury tends to be a deathblow to WRs above the age of 30. Dorsett remains involved and will likely play significant snaps as well, but a lot of the target distribution will once again head towards Edelman’s direction. While his age is getting up there, the 33-year-old looked fantastic in the 2018 playoffs (388 receiving yards in three games), and if he can match that type of play in 2019, there should be some strong PPR value, potentially even a chance at hitting top 12 numbers at his position.
One of the main reasons to think Edelman will sustain success is that the TE position is essentially vacant. Ben Watson is suspended for the first portion of the season (four games), and also, is turning 39 in December. Matt Lacosse and Ryan Izzo simply aren’t going to be fantasy relevant, and it seems highly unlikely that Stephen Anderson will be able to figure out a way to climb the depth chart. Gronk’s production will be spread around the offense, but it’s highly unlikely it’s handed to TEs, at least not as the depth chart currently stands. Between Rex Burkhead and White, the RBs should be heavily involved in the receiving game, and even guys like Sony Michel and Damien Harris could see volume out of the backfield. Much like last year, they could look at the RB position to salvage the loss in TE production they’re used to receiving.
In theory, this should be a down year for the Patriots from a fantasy perspective, but because of their infrastructure and ability to be chameleons game-plan wise, random players on this offense will likely be major fantasy contributors by seasons end. If I’m placing bets, it’s on Edelman, Harry and White, but with the way the Patriots have messed around with their RB rotations over the last few seasons, it could certainly end up being Michel, Burkhead or Harris. Brady didn’t have a lot of success on deep passes in 2018, and a lot of folks assert that’s because of age (which could certainly be a contributing factor), but I’d argue it was the complete lack of competent deep targets. If Brady can find a good rapport with some of his young weapons (Harry), and the Patriots stay relatively healthy, there will be another 4,000-to-4,500 passing yard pie to go around.
