At this time it may be a bit too early for season-long league fantasy drafts, but it’s only a matter of time before they get going. It’s one of my favorite times of the year. You get together with your buddies, throw some food on the grill or order in, crack open a couple of cold ones, and draft your fantasy football team.
When to draft a quarterback is something that many people will have a difference of opinion on. It is one of those things that fantasy owners have to decide on because it can change the entire structure of their team.
QUARTERBACK PRODUCTION
The chart below shows fantasy production for the top 25 fantasy quarterbacks since 2010. If you look at the numbers below, it may appear that there is a significant margin between the first quarterback and the rest of them, and to a certain extent there is. That said, when you break those numbers down on a weekly basis, it is not as bad as it may appear.
| 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | |
| Rank | Fantasy Pts | Fantasy Pts | Fantasy Pts | Fantasy Pts | Fantasy Pts | Fantasy Pts | Fantasy Pts | Fantasy Pts | Fantasy Pts |
| QB1 | 431.1 | 360.9 | 391 | 407.1 | 378.8 | 432 | 366.6 | 403.2 | 320.3 |
| QB2 | 360.5 | 315.5 | 355.3 | 354.1 | 361.1 | 373.7 | 357.7 | 403 | 314.6 |
| QB3 | 353 | 305.9 | 354.5 | 351 | 333.4 | 314.1 | 348.3 | 381.8 | 305 |
| QB4 | 346.6 | 302.2 | 326.7 | 342.5 | 327.7 | 312.2 | 345.4 | 381.6 | 304.6 |
| QB5 | 339.5 | 300.6 | 318.1 | 324.2 | 324.1 | 303.3 | 339 | 359.3 | 299.4 |
| QB6 | 326.3 | 293.6 | 298.8 | 319.2 | 320.2 | 301.7 | 324 | 304.5 | 294.5 |
| QB7 | 314.6 | 286.7 | 291.8 | 309.5 | 300.3 | 297.6 | 322.9 | 292.1 | 268.5 |
| QB8 | 308.9 | 282.4 | 289.9 | 309.2 | 295.3 | 289.2 | 304.5 | 291.5 | 265.6 |
| QB9 | 308.5 | 279.7 | 286.1 | 307.4 | 292.6 | 284.3 | 300 | 282.6 | 263.4 |
| QB10 | 301.9 | 272.7 | 279.4 | 306.3 | 291.5 | 279.1 | 291.9 | 270.4 | 260.5 |
| QB11 | 299.4 | 270.6 | 278.2 | 303.3 | 287.5 | 272.9 | 291 | 256.4 | 251.8 |
| QB12 | 294.7 | 268.3 | 276.6 | 297.5 | 281.3 | 271.5 | 274.8 | 247.1 | 248.4 |
| QB13 | 291.6 | 262.7 | 274.6 | 291.5 | 277.6 | 266.6 | 267.5 | 240.1 | 243.3 |
| QB14 | 289 | 246.1 | 273.7 | 288.3 | 274.6 | 264.4 | 250.9 | 232.1 | 238.1 |
| QB15 | 273 | 244.9 | 270.5 | 276 | 270.1 | 263.5 | 249.9 | 226.5 | 236.8 |
| QB16 | 256.1 | 230.7 | 268.4 | 274.1 | 269 | 261.7 | 244.3 | 223.7 | 227 |
| QB17 | 253 | 229.9 | 263.3 | 272.4 | 267.2 | 245.3 | 241.1 | 217.4 | 220 |
| QB18 | 238.7 | 227.5 | 262.9 | 257.9 | 235.3 | 229.6 | 237.3 | 211.5 | 218.9 |
| QB19 | 233.9 | 224.7 | 258.6 | 255.1 | 232.8 | 229 | 236.9 | 206 | 215.1 |
| QB20 | 231.2 | 222.4 | 254.8 | 245.5 | 212 | 222.5 | 235.4 | 183.3 | 209.9 |
| QB21 | 222.1 | 221.4 | 248.2 | 228.4 | 191.7 | 201.3 | 235.2 | 176.3 | 189.6 |
| QB22 | 215.8 | 218.9 | 235.5 | 216.2 | 190 | 181.9 | 214.7 | 175.6 | 177.3 |
| QB23 | 209.3 | 210.3 | 235.4 | 214.9 | 189.7 | 179.6 | 206.6 | 172.9 | 174.9 |
| QB24 | 192.2 | 209.7 | 228 | 212.9 | 185.1 | 175.4 | 199.9 | 166.1 | 171 |
| QB25 | 187.4 | 196 | 208.4 | 177.6 | 171.1 | 175.2 | 187.2 | 154.8 | 166.7 |
As you can see below, the production on per game basis between the top quarterback and the QB12 is roughly seven fantasy points per game on average. Aside from a couple of years where the top quarterback outperformed the rest of the quarterbacks by a wide margin, the difference is minor. Therefore, if you are looking at it from a numbers perspective, it is not necessary to draft a quarterback too early.
| 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | ||
| Rank | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | Average |
| QB1 | 26.94 | 22.56 | 24.44 | 25.44 | 23.68 | 27.00 | 22.91 | 25.20 | 26.69 | 24.98 |
| QB2 | 22.53 | 19.72 | 22.21 | 22.13 | 22.57 | 23.36 | 22.36 | 26.87 | 20.97 | 22.52 |
| QB3 | 22.06 | 19.12 | 22.16 | 21.94 | 20.84 | 19.63 | 21.77 | 23.86 | 19.06 | 21.16 |
| QB4 | 21.66 | 20.15 | 21.78 | 21.41 | 20.48 | 19.51 | 21.59 | 23.85 | 19.04 | 21.05 |
| QB5 | 21.22 | 18.79 | 19.88 | 20.26 | 20.26 | 18.96 | 22.60 | 22.46 | 18.71 | 20.35 |
| QB6 | 20.39 | 18.35 | 18.68 | 21.28 | 20.01 | 18.86 | 20.25 | 19.03 | 18.41 | 19.47 |
| QB7 | 19.66 | 22.05 | 18.24 | 19.34 | 18.77 | 18.60 | 20.18 | 18.26 | 16.78 | 19.10 |
| QB8 | 20.59 | 17.65 | 18.12 | 19.33 | 18.46 | 18.08 | 19.03 | 18.22 | 16.60 | 18.45 |
| QB9 | 19.28 | 17.48 | 17.88 | 19.21 | 18.29 | 17.77 | 18.75 | 17.66 | 16.46 | 18.09 |
| QB10 | 18.87 | 18.18 | 17.46 | 19.14 | 18.22 | 17.44 | 18.24 | 16.90 | 16.28 | 17.86 |
| QB11 | 18.71 | 16.91 | 18.55 | 18.96 | 17.97 | 17.06 | 18.19 | 19.72 | 15.74 | 17.98 |
| QB12 | 18.42 | 17.89 | 18.44 | 18.59 | 18.75 | 18.10 | 17.18 | 15.44 | 15.53 | 17.59 |
| QB13 | 20.83 | 16.42 | 17.16 | 18.22 | 18.51 | 17.77 | 16.72 | 16.01 | 17.38 | 17.67 |
| QB14 | 18.06 | 15.38 | 17.11 | 18.02 | 17.16 | 16.53 | 15.68 | 15.47 | 15.87 | 16.59 |
| QB15 | 19.50 | 16.33 | 18.03 | 19.71 | 16.88 | 16.47 | 15.62 | 14.16 | 15.79 | 16.94 |
| QB16 | 18.29 | 14.42 | 17.89 | 17.13 | 19.21 | 20.13 | 16.29 | 13.98 | 17.46 | 17.20 |
| QB17 | 15.81 | 15.33 | 18.81 | 17.03 | 16.70 | 15.33 | 15.07 | 13.59 | 18.33 | 16.22 |
| QB18 | 14.92 | 15.17 | 17.53 | 16.12 | 14.71 | 14.35 | 14.83 | 15.11 | 16.84 | 15.51 |
| QB19 | 14.62 | 17.28 | 21.55 | 19.62 | 15.52 | 17.62 | 14.81 | 12.88 | 13.44 | 16.37 |
| QB20 | 14.45 | 17.11 | 15.93 | 16.37 | 13.25 | 13.91 | 14.71 | 12.22 | 13.12 | 14.56 |
| QB21 | 18.51 | 14.76 | 15.51 | 19.03 | 14.75 | 12.58 | 18.09 | 13.56 | 14.58 | 15.71 |
| QB22 | 19.62 | 13.68 | 15.70 | 18.02 | 15.83 | 16.54 | 13.42 | 13.51 | 11.82 | 15.35 |
| QB23 | 19.03 | 14.02 | 15.69 | 15.35 | 15.81 | 16.33 | 13.77 | 13.30 | 12.49 | 15.09 |
| QB24 | 14.78 | 13.98 | 14.25 | 13.31 | 13.22 | 19.49 | 12.49 | 16.61 | 15.55 | 14.85 |
| QB25 | 14.42 | 12.25 | 17.37 | 16.15 | 12.22 | 11.68 | 14.40 | 15.48 | 12.82 | 14.09 |
ADP BY THE YEAR
After looking through ADP numbers, I am noticing that since 2015, there has been a change as to when the first quarterback is taken off of the board and on how many quarterbacks are taken by the seventh. This can be occurring for multiple reasons. The first, because fantasy owners have noticed that waiting on a quarterback is fine. Also, the position has become deeper in recent years than in years past, so there are plenty of productive quarterbacks to choose from.
| 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | |
| Round first QB was taken in | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Quarterbacks taken before 7th round | 6 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| Quarterbacks off the board by round 10 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
MY THOUGHTS
I have never been one to take a quarterback early. In fact, even in two-quarterback and/or super flex leagues, I am one of the last owners to select a signal caller. Aside from those two types of formats, in most other cases fantasy teams only have one starting quarterback. However, they have to start 2-3 running backs, 2-3 receivers, and 1-2 tight ends in most leagues. This is why I personally focus all of my attention in the first 6-8 rounds on running backs and receivers. Being deep at these positions is really helpful over the course of the season because you have bye weeks and injuries to deal with. In addition, the drop off in fantasy points for these other positions, is more significant than it is for the quarterback position. Being that you are starting more of the other positions in your lineups, the margin of fantasy points will have a bigger impact on a weekly basis.
If you notice the ADP chart above, by round 10 of most drafts 12 quarterbacks are off the board. Therefore, it is very likely all fantasy owners who play in 12-team leagues have their starting signal caller. The run of quarterback usually begins between the seventh and 10th round as on average 6-7 quarterbacks come off the board during that time.
This is when I am targeting my quarterback as well. Once I have at least three or four running backs and at least four or five receivers on my roster that is when I am willing to pull the trigger on my quarterback. It is also dependent on what quarterbacks are available and where I am picking in the draft. If I am anticipating a quarterback run coming up, I look at the teams around me to see who is in need of a quarterback and who already has one locked up. That also helps me determine whether I should start the run or not. This is why you often hear me say that you have to pay attention to the teams in your fantasy drafts, as well as adjust when necessary.
Here is an example of what I mean. Last season, I was higher than most on Andrew Luck and decided to draft him earlier than I normally would draft a quarterback. The reason I did this is because I was at the front end of the draft and it was going to be about 20 picks before I selected again. At that time, there was at least one team with two quarterbacks and other teams with just one. Since this is a super-flex league, the run of quarterback was inevitable, so I wanted to lock in my guy before he came off the board, and as soon as I drafted him about seven quarterbacks came off the board before my next pick. Sometimes starting the quarterback run is a good thing because you will not settle at the position or feel forced to draft a quarterback you might not want.
I looked through ADP rankings this year, and let me tell you there are plenty of quality quarterbacks being taken after the seventh round. See chart below.
| QB | Pick | Player |
| 1 | 2.1 | Pat Mahomes |
| 2 | 4.05 | Andrew Luck |
| 3 | 4.11 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 4 | 5.09 | Deshaun Watson |
| 5 | 5.12 | Baker Mayfield |
| 6 | 6.06 | Matt Ryan |
| 7 | 6.08 | Drew Brees |
| 8 | 7.03 | Russell Wilson |
| 9 | 7.1 | Carson Wentz |
| 10 | 8.03 | Philip Rivers |
| 11 | 9.03 | Jared Goff |
| 12 | 9.04 | Cam Newton |
| 13 | 9.07 | Kyler Murray |
| 14 | 9.1 | Tom Brady |
| 15 | 10.06 | Ben Roethlisberger |
| 16 | 10.07 | Jameis Winston |
| 17 | 11.06 | Jimmy Garoppolo |
| 18 | 11.08 | Josh Allen |
| 19 | 12.02 | Kirk Cousins |
| 20 | 12.03 | Lamar Jackson |
| 21 | 12.05 | Dak Prescott |
| 22 | 12.12 | Mitch Trubisky |
| 23 | 14.05 | Derek Carr |
| 24 | 14.05 | Matthew Stafford |
| 25 | 14.09 | Nick Foles |
| 26 | 14.09 | Sam Darnold |
As you can see there is still plenty of talent at the position passed the seventh round, including quarterbacks that have the potential to finish as top five in fantasy production. If you decide to take the same approach as I do and wait on your quarterback, here are some of the quarterbacks I am considering after the seventh round.
Considering his ADP, Jameis Winston will likely end up in a lot of my rosters this season. I have him inside my top 10 in rankings, yet he is being drafted outside the top 10 at his position on average. Bruce Arians is now the coach for the Bucs and there is no longer Ryan Fitzpatrick to be worried about, so Winston should stay on the field all season. This offense is loaded with weapons, which is also very helpful. He will frustrate owners at times, but has plenty of upside to finish as a QB1 this season. Jared Goff is also interesting to me. He is not the most talented quarterback in the league, but he is in the right system and has the right supporting cast around him. Last year he finished as QB6 in fantasy points and could very well end up as a QB1 once again this season. Cam Newton is not a quarterback I have targeted often in past years because would typically come off the board way before I would draft a quarterback, but this season he is going much later. I know he comes with risk this season and honestly, I am not that excited about him, but I do think he offers a solid floor considering what he does with his legs and if I can get him in the ninth or tenth round, I would not be at all mad at that. These are just three that stood out at me, but there are others here that can be considered.
If you have a strong foundation at running back and wide receiver, any of the quarterbacks listed above would be a great addition to your fantasy team. Yes, landing Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, or Andrew Luck would be awesome, but you might be missing out on a really strong wide out or running back. I prefer solidifying these two positons and getting a capable quarterback later in the draft that offers upside and could finish as a QB1.
