Structural advantages were something we discussed a while ago, and it will be the main focus of this piece for the next couple of weeks. There’s a few very important concepts I use as building blocks, that once explained, will make the success probability charts easier to apply strategy-wise. Dynasty leagues have a plethora of concepts and ideas that can work, but having a strong grasp of how the wheel is turning can create awareness for why things are working the way they are.
More roster evaluation! As soon as I wrote the first roster-based evaluation piece, it instantly became clear this was a great way to frame an article. While I have my opinions on roster building, this type of thought practice creates a scenario where I’m “telling” my option, but also shows just how versatile dynasty strategy can be. There are many ways to building a winning dynasty roster, and through tons of experience through playing, I’ve learned a lot of these principles. If I learned from other league-mates and seeing strategies “pass” or “fail” over multiple years, why not bring Guru Subs along for the ride with that type of thought process evolution?
Two more rosters this week, let’s get to work.
Roster Evaluation Practice
TEAM ONE
- Format: Head-To-Head (set lineup)
- Teams: 14
- Roster Spots: 30 (36 in the offseason)
- Starting Lineup Spots: 12
- QB – 1
- RB – 3-5
- WR – 4-6
- TE – 1-3
- Scoring – PPR
Evaluation Practice: Take a moment and look over the roster. What are the strengths? What are the weaknesses and risks this roster is currently dealing with? How does this team translate in a season-long setting, over 16 weeks?
Critique: Did you find any weaknesses? If so, please point them out to me, because I didn’t. Yes, this was tricky. If things went as planned, you sat here for five or so minutes looking at that roster trying to figure out what I could possibly dislike about this roster. The answer — this is about as optimal a roster construction as there is. For some context, this is an established league, heading into its fourth season. This type of roster equity would be impossible in a startup or auction, ESPECIALLY in a 14 team league. The QBs aren’t perfect, but Carson Wentz has an incredibly high upside in that offense, and Marcus Mariota is a solid backup QB. That combination should be able to get through 16 weeks and allow the rest of the positions to be specular without being hindered. There’s also a reasonable chance that Drew Lock becomes a starter at some point in the next two seasons, which creates more stability.
When Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb and Damien Williams are your starters heading into the season, in a 14 team league, you have to be excited. Especially considering some interesting PPR upside type players like Matt Breida and Tarik Cohen sitting there as backups. While there’s certainly some volatility with Williams Breida and Cohen, the odds that one of them sustains a fantasy-relevant role is still really high. Obviously, McCaffrey’s health is essential, but in terms of process, there’s no way to fully protect yourself from RB injury risk. The WRs are in a similar boat. Between Michael Thomas and Mike Evans, the rest of the crew matters much less, even considering it’s required to start four. Barring injury, Thomas and Evans are guaranteed top-end producers and will be stable assets for the next three-to-five seasons from a dynasty perspective. Between Tre’Quan Smith, Terry McLaurin, Dante Pettis and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, there’s a beautiful stacking of draft position with four WRs with differing career timelines (years they’ve been in the NFL). Add in players like Keke Coutee and Quincy Enunwa, who aren’t optimal from a draft position perspective, but have solid opportunity for 2019, and this team is incredibly imposing. Oh yeah, and Julian Edelman is primed for another big season as Tom Brady’s only familiar weapon. The TEs don’t even need to be discussed. This is BY FAR the best unit in the league, and even a major injury won’t penetrate the weekly value a combination of Evan Engram, Zach Ertz and George Kittle will bring to the table.
This type of roster is nightmare fuel to think about trying to beat. Also, plot twist, I bet you think this is my team. Sadly, it isn’t, it belongs to Pete Davidson (@Rotobahn on Twitter).
TEAM two
- Format: Best Ball
- Teams: 12
- Roster Spots: 32
- Starting Lineup Spots: 11
- QB – 1-2
- RB – 1-7
- WR – 1-7
- TE – 1-7
- Scoring – PPR, -0 for INTs
Evaluation Practice: Take a moment and look over the roster. What are the strengths? What are the weaknesses and risks this roster is currently dealing with? How does this team translate to 16 week best ball setting?
Critique: Overall, this is a strong team, and especially for 2019, should be a competitor. Considering the versatility in starting requirements, this team has enough pieces to sustain itself across all positions for 16 weeks. There are some important questions to ask, especially from a dynasty perspective, however.
Since this is a SF format, there’s a real concern about the long term market equity of the QB position. The trade value of Blake Bortles and Ryan Tannehill is essentially nothing at this stage unless the Marcus Mariota or Jared Goff owner gets worried, and the Tom Brady/Drew Brees has significantly more roster value than trade value. A Brady or Brees retirement after 2019 could cause some major issues. RB is set for 2019, and while most of Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, Lamar Miller and Damien Williams won’t sustain themselves long term (based on their draft positions), they all have fantastic opportunity for the upcoming season. James Conner is a solid asset to have who should sustain himself and should lead the charge of this RB committee, which would almost assuredly have huge BOOM weeks from a best ball perspective.
Between Odell Beckham, Tyler Boyd, Amari Cooper and Stefon Diggs, this roster will very likely be able to get away with ZERO DEPTH behind them. I’m having a hard time seeing significant upside in any of the eight other WRs on the roster, and if this team runs into injury issues, the lack of depth at WR would be what will sink it In 2019. Overall though, the strength of the top four guys sets a nice trade market value floor and can be used as an insurance policy if things go downhill. Jared Cook and Eric Ebron should combine for a very strong TE combination in 2019, and Ebron will sustain market value for multiple years considering he’s young and attached to Andrew Luck. Gerald Everett and Darren Waller are interesting dart throws at TE, and could provide upside if things break the right way.
