Prop bets are one of my favorite ways of beating oddsmakers. Some people have immense success betting spreads or hitting over/unders — just check out how red-hot our Elite Sports Betting site is right now with baseball — but my most successful betting has been through prop bets.
When I saw that FanDuel released props for Kyler Murray as soon as he was drafted by the Cardinals it was something I couldn’t wait to get action on. Hell, I opened an account just to do so. I immediately started maxing every single bet they offered — OVER on passing yards, OVER on passing touchdowns, and taking him for Rookie of the Year. It was all because I was highly confident in that we had just seen nearly an identical quarterback come out of the same system with the same statistics and flourish in Year 1.
Murray is as close to a carbon copy of a passer of Baker Mayfield that it’s utterly uncanny. One could argue Murray is nearly the same quarterback prospect coming out of Oklahoma, just with speed to boot as a runner.
| Quarterback | G | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | INT |
| Baker Mayfield | 14 | 285 | 404 | 70.5 | 4,627 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 43 | 6 |
| Kyler Murray | 14 | 260 | 377 | 69 | 4,361 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 42 | 7 |
It’s amazing putting the two side-by-side how eerily similar their 2017 and 2018 respective campaigns went. Murray’s 13.0 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) set the all-time NCAA record for a single season. What’s crazy is that Mayfield had just set that highwater mark with his 12.9 AY/A the year prior.
Another way to compare these two is by looking at their situations as incoming NFL rookies. Mayfield didn’t end up starting until Week 3 last season thanks to Hue Jackson’s stubbornness, yet he still went on to throw for 3,725 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns. The Browns were also one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, helping to increase overall play volume. They also did a solid job surrounding Mayfield with playmakers in Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Antonio Callaway, and Duke Johnson.
The likeness between the two former Oklahoma quarterback situations is rather remarkable. Murray is going to a team where the head coach is planning on implementing an aggressive Air Raid attack. Passing volume and pace should be aplenty for Murray. Arizona also has some interesting playmakers in the fold between Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and David Johnson out of the backfield.
Let’s take a closer look at each of the prop bets.
Passing Yards
Yardage: 3,100.5 yards
Over: -200
Under: +150
Over the past five years, we’ve seen five rookie quarterbacks throw for more than 3,100 passing yards. Jameis Winston (4,042), Carson Wentz (3,782), Mayfield (3,725), Dak Prescott (3,667), and Derek Carr (3,270) all cleared this hurdle in their first season in the league. The bar isn’t really set really that with it averaging to just 193.8 passing yards per game. Murray threw for more than that in 13-of-14 games his final season, averaging 311.5 passing yards per game. While that’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, the fact that Murray blows that 193.5 mark out of the water is rather reassuring.
Considering the nature of the Air Raid offense, Murray should be in for a ton of passing volume on this squad. Even though his receiving arsenal isn’t full of experienced veterans, the Cardinals front office did a fantastic job giving him other rookies to grow with and build around. Isabella and Butler were highly sought-after draft prospects that went in the second and fourth rounds, respectively. Isabella brings a versatile speed-burner role to the table and Butler, at 6’-5”, 227-pounds, can be a physical bully anywhere they line him up. Those two are likely the fourth and fifth passing options in the passing game and should make Murray’s life easier as they rotate receivers.
Kliff Kingsbury’s teams have never finished outside the top-10 in pass play percentage during his tenure as the Head Coach at Texas Tech (2013-2018). They also ranked top-10 in plays per game in all but one season (2014). He clearly has his offense designed to throw the ball heavily and often. Given the current state of the Cardinals’ defense, they may have to do that out of necessity.
Gamescript could also be on Murray’s side as the Cardinals enter the year without arguably their best defender, Patrick Peterson. Arizona allowed 26.6 points per game (seventh-most) and 358.8 yards per game (13th-most). They ranked dead-last in rushing defense last season.
At -200, this is a prop bet I’m maxing out.
Passing Touchdowns
Touchdowns: 17.5
Over: -154
Under: +120
Outside of Carson Wentz (16), the other four rookie quarterbacks that threw for 3,100-plus passing yards all threw for more than 17.5 passing touchdowns during their rookie campaigns. Marcus Mariota (19) and Deshaun Watson (19) also joined this subset of rookie passers with Sam Darnold (17) just missing out.
Murray was a touchdown savant at Oklahoma, averaging 3.0 passing touchdowns per game. He threw for multiple passing touchdowns in all but one game. The benchmark here of him clearing 17.5 passing touchdowns seems far too low given his pedigree and combination of this offense.
If you believe that Murray will hit the over on passing yards, I can’t understand why you wouldn’t want to double-down and take this bet. At -154, it’s another prop bet to smash.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Odds: +270
This incoming rookie class isn’t one that dynasty owners were thrilled with. Sure, there are a few tantalizing prospects, but there are either some warts about the short-term landing spot or a few holes missing in their games to call many of these prospects slamdunks.
That translates well over to this prop bet here for Offensive Rookie of the Year. There aren’t really that many players for Murray to contend with at this time. Oakland running back Josh Jacobs is likely his biggest threat to the award, but we haven’t even touched upon Murray’s dual-threat ability yet in this article.
Murray finished his final season not only with those sterling passing numbers shown in the table above, he also did all that while rushing for 1,000 yards. Do you know how many collegiate passers have thrown for 4,000-plus passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in the same season? Just one — Deshaun Watson. The ability to both pass and take off when the pressure gets too much can be an absolute game-changer. Considering Arizona’s offensive lines is one of the worst in the league, we should see Murray taking off with regularity in 2019.
Health is truly the only thing that I believe is standing in the way of Murray winning this prop bet and the other two above. Combining Murray’s passing ceiling with his rushing floor, I’m hammering the bets above with confidence.
