Luzardo and Puk finally took the hill in a game that mattered. Bundy has cut the homers, and success has followed. Since his first pitch, Griffin Canning has looked like he belonged. I still can’t believe how many folks were all-in with German Marquez this season. Minor has been, frankly, as good as folks thought Marquez would be. Morton has dominated everyone. He could be in for an award-winning season if he can stay healthy. Nola has struggled to recapture last season’s glory. Ray is throwing his fastball a bit less, and it’s helping a bit. Ryu has been masterful. Yes, I said it. Anibal is getting lots of out for the Nationals while Smyly isn’t generating any for the Rangers.
Tanner Anderson entered the bigs with a 6.26 ERA at Triple-A with a 1.68 WHIP which equals horrible pitching. He went out and allowed three hits, and two runs, over 5.2 innings against the Rays in his first start. Couldn’t have expected a better result, but he’s still a no-go (though it sounds like the plan is for him to make another start). In a related A’s story, A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo both made their seasonal debuts Tuesday. Puk, who has missed time due to Tommy John surgery, threw two innings allowing one run as his heater was sitting at 97-98. He looks solid and should be seen in the bigs at some point in the second half. Luzardo threw 33 pitches over his three scoreless innings. Luzardo, who was ticketed for starting duties before his shoulder balked, could be in the bigs around the All-Star break if he progresses as expected.
Dylan Bundy allowed 2.15 homers per nine last season. I said that wasn’t gonna happen in 2019. My victory lap has gone about nine feet though as the mark has dropped to a still horrendous 1.93 per nine. I’m telling you, this cannot, just can’t, continue. The rate is finally slowing a bit after allowing “just” four homers his last five outings. He’s also permitted six homers his last seven outings. Yes, that’s improvement. In those seven outings he’s posted a 1.30 HR/9 rate, an acceptable total given his overall game. Further, in those seven outings he’s dropped his walk rate down under 2.5 per nine leading to a 3.27 K/BB ratio that has helped him to post a 1.03 WHIP. I know you feel like it’s a risk to start Bundy, and I get it, but for the last month and a half he has totally been a usable piece.
Griffin Canning continues to impress me. He knows how to pitch, has poise and moxy, and he battles. Through eight starts with the Angels he’s yet to allow more than four runs in an outing, and each of his last three trips on the hill he’s thrown exactly six innings, and over his last five outings he’s averaged exactly six innings an outing. Canning has racked up 47 punchouts in 44.1 innings, and he’s avoided beating himself with a mere 2.03 BB/9 rate that includes two or fewer walks in all but one start. Canning has impressed, something that can readily be seen in his 0.99 WHIP.
Jerad Eickhoff is heading to the bullpen, and he has only himself to blame. Check out the vomit inducing numbers of the last six starts, and be prepared to puke: the guy has allowed 16 homers in six innings. Did you believe that to be possible? I don’t think that 99 percent of people who have ever watched a game thought that was possible. I should add in that Eickhoff has allowed 27 runs over the 27.1 innings his last six starts leading to an 8.89 ERA. Honestly, you cannot pitch worse. He’s only starting again for the Phils if they are flat out desperate.
German Marquez has allowed at least four runs in 3-of-4 outings. Moreover, he’s allowed 18 runs over 24.2 innings (6.57 ERA) and that includes 12 runs his last two outings (11.1 frames). His stuff impresses, and in any outing, he can flat out shut down an opponent. That said, there’s simply too many blow up outings to fully trust Marquez, let alone claim he’s some kind of fantasy star as so many have. In 15 starts this season, Marquez has allowed at least five runs four times, and 7-of-15 it’s been at least four earned runs permitted. Oh, and as discussed in his preseason Player Profile, he simply has not conquered Coors (5.06 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .344 wOBA this season), something no one has done. It was amazing to me, how many folks drafted him without hesitation this season, as a top-20 arm.
Mike Minor continues to mow down the competition with no end in sight. Some time soon the run has to end, age/workload/health will likely conspire against him, but my goodness has he been tremendous. Over his last six starts he’s allowed nine total runs, and over his last 13-starts he’s allowed as many as four runs a single time dropping his ERA to 2.52. He’s allowed four runs once in 13 starts. Marquez has done that in back-to-back starts. Minor has been incredibly fortunate with an 87.1 left on baes rate, but it’s pretty amazing to think, is it not, that he has a 1.11 WHIP his last 324 innings. Think about that. Amongst pitchers who have tossed 300-innings since 2017, Minor is 11th in baseball in WHIP with a better mark than Gerrit Cole, Carlos Carrasco, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, Jose Berrios, Mike Clevinger, Madison Bumgarner, Trevor Bauer etc.
Charlie Morton through 14 starts to begin last season had a 2.94 ERA and a .657 OPSA. This season, in 14 starts, the numbers are 2.10 and .560. Morton is also 8-0 on the season with a 1.02 WHIP. He’s allowed three runs his last four outings and six his last six outings. Morton also has allowed just two homers in nine outings. The only question at this point seems to be – can he avoid injury? If he can, and I probably should have written IF in caps, he could challenge for the AL Cy Young Award (what my SiriusXM co-host Kyle Elfrink has been saying for a while now). Morton threw 167 innings last season, his highest mark since 2011, and he’s never thrown 150 big league innings in back-to-back seasons.
Aaron Nola just can’t seem to quite get over the hump. He’s allowed 3-or-fewer earned runs in 9-of-10 outings, but he’s still allowed nine runs over two starts to push his ERA back up to 4.58. He’s dominated righties with a .284 wOBA, but his work against lefties has been ghastly (.401 wOBA). He’s also really struggled on the road (.377 wOBA). I say buy given the somewhat depressed cost, but seeing a run to match last season’s dominance seems unlikely at this point.
Robbie Ray’s hard-hit ball rate is down five percent from the last two seasons. The exit velocity is down nearly three mph too. He’s throwing his four-seam fastball eight percent less than last season, and at the same time the wOBA on the pitch has dropped .054 points to .304. The difference in the fastball usage has gone to his slider as he threw the pitch 25.5 percent of the time last season and it’s up to 33.9 percent this season. The pitch led to a .248 wOBA last season, and it’s permitted a slightly higher mark this season at .263. The walks are still at an absurdly high 4.4 per nine, and that’s scary. He’s also allowed just 0.83 homers per nine, this after 3-straight years at 1.24 or higher. In the last three seasons that HR/FB ratio has been at least 15.5 percent, and this year the mark is down nearly fifty percent to 10.9 percent. Throwing the fastball, a bit less helps, but it doesn’t explain all the drop, so expect the homer pace to pick up moving forward.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has a 1.36 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Over his last 168.1 innings, covering 28 starts, he has gone 16-4 with a 1.66 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 8.30 K/BB ratio. Can’t believe I’m about to write this, but since the start of last season Ryu has been Kershaw-in-his-prime dominant. Amazing. I’d still consider selling for a big return given his extensive injury history.
Anibal Sanchez is rolling. I know, I know, but he has. The last time Anibal has allowed more than three earned runs was April 24th. Since then, Anibal has a 2.20 ERA and over his last 18.2 innings he’s allowed two total runs for the Nationals. Ready to roll those dice? If not, do not inquire within.
Drew Smyly is still pitching in the big leagues. My question is, why? He has made 11 trips to the hill with an 8.40 ERA, 1.91 WHIP and 6.20 BB/9 for the Rangers. At one point he was so effective, and while I give him credit for perseverance, the guy should be throwing batting practice.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
