FGE

NFL Receiving Back Usage – 6/12/19

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How many NFL coaches typically use a fantasy-relevant receiving back? This is important because of two trends in fantasy football. First, the growth in the fantasy value of “receiving backs.” Second, the need to find receiving backs to fill the 2nd RB slot on “Zero-RB” rosters.

To examine this, I need to define what I mean by a “fantasy-relevant receiving back.” For the purposes of this study, by “fantasy-relevant,” I mean an RB who finishes in the Top 60 of all RBs in fantasy points per game (FP/G) with a minimum of four games played, using point-per-reception scoring. A “receiving back” is an RB who is not the #1 RB on his team in rushes and who scores over half of his FP from catching the ball (receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs). I’m going to look only at the period since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002 as that affects the population of RBs who can rank in the Top 60.

Here’s how receiving back usage has increased in recent seasons:

From 2002-2005, receiving backs were used by about a third of all teams, with 10-13 RBs meeting my definition in those seasons. Then they dropped in popularity through 2010, with as few as 6 in a year and no more than 10: the peak in this period was the floor of the 2002-2005 stretch. 2011-2012 look like a transition period: a peak of 13, a regression to 8, and then a new period of increased usage. The 2013-2016 seasons all had 12 or more receiving RBs in each year.

The last two years have seen the most receiving backs in play since the NFL expanded to 32 teams. Some teams have had more than one RB meet the criteria – in 2018, the Eagles had THREE such RBs (Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement).

For owners employing a Zero-RB Strategy (drafting no RBs for the first several rounds) or a modified version (picking a potential stud RB in Round 1 or 2, then no more backs for several rounds), the growth of the pool of receiving backs is welcome. It allows the owner to snag one of these backs as an RB2 to keep the team afloat until injuries and the emergence of new featured backs increase the pool of viable RB2s or even RB1s. Sometimes, like last year with James White (RB10 overall) or Tarik Cohen (RB14), the receiving back himself fits the bill.

Back to the original question. This table shows the current head coaches and offensive coordinators (OCs) and their historic usage rate of receiving running backs (RRB):

The team and coaches’ names are self-explanatory. The “Years” columns are the number of seasons each coach has as an NFL HC or OC. “NA” means the relevant coaches, like Kliff Kingsbury, has no such seasons – this is their first time as an NFL HC or OC. The “%RRB” is the total number of RRBs the coach has used since 2002 divided by the number of years he’s been an OC or HC. This can result in a percentage over 100%, as with Mike Groh, OC of Philadelphia:  2018 was his 1st year as an OC and his Eagles had 3 RRBs.

The last column is the weighted average (Wtd Avg) of the current HC and OC. Where only one has an HC or OC experience, like Arizona with Kingsbury and Tom Clements, that average will match that of the experienced coach. Where both coaches have an RRB track record, like ATL, this percentage more heavily considers, or is weighted, toward the more experienced coach. Dan Quinn has never used an RRB in four years as a head coach, but his new OC Dirk Koetter has done so in half his 12 years as an OC or HC. So his 6 RRBs plus Quinn’s none, divided by their combined 16 years experience, result in a weighted average of 38%. I felt this was a more accurate representation of the likelihood the Falcons will employ an RRB this year.

Here’s my take on the likelihood of each team using an RRB in 2019 (teams are listed alphabetically within categories with last year’s RRB in parenthesis if there was one):

Almost Certain

  • NE (James White): There have been a few years when Belichick did NOT have an RRB, but also years when he’s had more than one. McDaniels’ 12 years, of course, overlap with Belichick a lot. The only reason to NOT draft a potential Patriot RRB is the draft cost. White probably won’t return RB10 value again, but he and/or some other back on this roster will be fantasy-relevant.
  • NO: Alvin Kamara sucked up so many targets (105) that there was no room for an RRB. But Payton/Carmichael almost always use one. It’s possible that Kamara will again preclude an RRB, but there is also a good chance a back like Javorius Allen (almost 60% of his career FP have been from receiving) could snag enough targets to be fantasy-relevant. If Kamara gets hurt, I’d expect Latavius Murray to be the main ball-carrier and Allen the pass-catcher in a committee.

Very Likely

  • CHI (Tarik Cohen): If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. Nagy/Helfrich don’t have a long track record and might NOT use an RRB if Cohen gets hurt. But as long as Cohen is healthy, he’s going to get a lot of use.
  • IND (Nyheim Hines): Reich has tended to employ an RRB; Siriani has only one year as an OC/HC. Primary rusher Marlon Mack was a below average receiver with 65% catch rate and 6.1 yards per catch both below average. Hines (78%/6.7) was more effective and should keep that role. Spencer Ware could fill the role if Hines is hurt but also could eat into Hines targets if Mack goes down and Ware becomes the main runner. Reich is not wedded to an RRB, so the Colts don’t go into the top category.
  • JAC (T.J. Yeldon): Marrone almost always employs an RRB, and DeFilippo has in both his OC seasons. Leonard Fournette has been an effective receiver, so it’s possible that he blocks the emergence of an RRB from an uninspiring RB depth chart. But Benny Cunningham is an intriguing possibility, who is basically undrafted. If you’re in an FFPC or NFFC Best Ball draft with very deep rosters, he might be a last round option. In active re-drafts, watch this situation; the team might add an RRB candidate if they aren’t happy with Cunningham – put that guy on your radar.
  • OAK (Jalen Richard): Gruden the Elder tends to use RRBs; his OC less so, but who do we think is directing this offense? Josh Jacobs is clearly the main back, but between his rookie-ness at picking up blitzes and Gruden’s history, plus the presence of Richard, who was an excellent RRB (84% CR, 8.9 YPC), I think Richard will keep that role and his fantasy-relevance in 2019 (RB42 last year). Watch Chris Warren if Richard gets hurt.
  • PHI (Sproles, Smallwood, Clement): The 3 RRBs last year inflate Pederson/Groh’s historic rate of RRBs. And Sproles is gone. But Jordan Howard is not a great receiver and Smallwood and Clements were both effective in that role. I like Clement’s chances to pick up Sproles’ vacated 23 targets and be a decent flex option with some upside.
  • WAS (Chris Thompson): Gruden the Younger tends to use RRBs and Thompson is very good in the role. Adrian Peterson was a so-so receiver at his peak and that is long ago. Derrius Guice is a wild card. Rookie QBs do tend to target RBs a bit more than veteran QBs, and although it’s not a huge factor, it could help Thompson move up several spots in the RB rankings.

Maybe (50-50)

  • ATL: While Quinn has never used an RRB, I think Koetter’s numbers (50%) are more relevant. Devonta Freeman has been an adequate receiver with about RB-average catch rates and YPC. Ito Smith had a receiving role last year although his 5.6 YPC was poor. My take is Freeman gets the receiving back job, but if he’s hurt, Smith gets a potential RRB workload while another back is the main runner.
  • DET (Theo Riddick): Ignoring Patricia’s limited track record, Bevell has been exactly 50-50 in using RRBs. Riddick has been a prototypical RRB, so the player is there if Bevell wants to go that route. Kerryon Johnson was a mediocre receiver as a rookie, and C.J. Anderson is probably a little worse than that. I think the team will give Johnson shot to claim all three RB roles, and Bevell’s track record speaks to that, or I’d move them up a category. But Riddick is a decent RRB candidate.
  • GB: The coaches have a limited history, although LaFleur had an RRB as OC in TEN last year. That’s the strongest factor in favor of someone emerging as an RRB here. But the RB depth chart is a mess and none of the backs combined above average CRs and YPCs last year, so I don’t know who’d get the RRB job.
  • LAC (Austin Ekeler): Lynn has leaned towards an RRB in his 3 years as HC; Whisenhunt has used one but less than half the time. Melvin Gordon is a pretty good pass-catcher and takes up a lot of targets (66 in 2018), but Ekeler proved useful as a change-of-pace guy, both as a decent receiver and runner (5.2 yards per attempt). I think Ekeler will again have value as an RRB, but if he’s hurt don’t expect another RB will automatically pick up that value.
  • LAR: McVay has had 2 RRBs in 5 years as an OC/HC. Todd Gurley’s knees are what elevates this team to a “Maybe” in 2019. I’d expect Gurley’s 81 targets in 14 games to be reduced; I’m just not sure even that makes enough total RB targets to make an RRB viable. The team was 24th in RB targets last year and it’s possible Gurley’s targets go to a different position rather than to a different RB. And there is no obvious RRB candidate on the roster – unless it’s Gurley. The team could decide to give Darrell Henderson maybe 60% of the carries and keep Gurley’s receiving role large while reducing his carries (although Gurley may have lost the agility conducive to being a good RRB). But Gurley’s ADP is too high for that to matter – he’s not a viable Zero-RB roster guy – for this discussion. It’s possible I should rate this team lower than a Maybe.
  • PIT (Jaylen Samuels): Last year was the first time Tomlin used an RRB in 12 seasons as HC, so it’s only Fichtner’s 1-for-1 as an OC combined with Samuel’s return that makes this a “Maybe.” James Conner was a decent receiver and almost as good as Samuels, so it’s no lock that Samuels repeats. But if the team decides to manage Conner’s workload or if he gets hurt, Samuel is the obvious receiving option; Benny Snell may get Conner’s carries but almost certainly not his targets.
  • SEA: Carroll has used RRBs but probably prefers a 3-down featured back. Schottenheimer has been 50-50 as an RRB employer and has enough years (10) as an OC that we can put this team in the Maybe category. If I knew who would be the main ball-carrier, I’d have a better guess who might be the RRB candidate. But Chris Carson and Rashad Penny were decent receivers last year. J.D. McKissic had an RRB job in 2017 when the depth chart was decimated, so he’s a deep sleeper if things go south here again. C.J. Prosise is a perennial RRB tease. Personally, I wouldn’t draft any of these five as an RRB, because there are too many possibilities. I would watch the injuries and usage patterns to see if someone emerges (I would take a flyer on Carson, Davis, Penny as a possible 3-down RB depending on their ADP).

Probably Not

  • CAR: Rivera usually does not use an RRB. Turner has less than half the time. But Christian McCaffrey’s dominance of the RB targets just doesn’t leave room for an RRB if he plays. None of the backs on the depth chart inspire me as RRB candidates if he’s hurt, but someone could emerge in the role if that does happen.
  • CLE (Duke Johnson): Kitchens has no meaningful track record. Monken has leaned against RRBs in a limited sample. Johnson is disgruntled, and Nick Chubb ate into Johnson’s target share once Kitchens took over as OC last year, so to begin with, I think Johnson’s chances of repeating are diminished. Then the addition of Kareem Hunt is another potential consumer of RB targets once he comes back from suspension. For the right draft picks, I can see pairing Johnson and Hunt, counting on getting a full year of RRB production between the two. But I’d need a big roster and the right draft cost to try this.
  • MIN (Dalvin Cook): Cook is something of an anomaly as an RRB. He met the definition in 2018 because Latavius Murray edged him in carries (140 to 133), and Cook managed 53% of his FP through the air because Murray got more goalline carries. Cook is probably the featured back this year. Zimmer has leaned away from RRBs, and Stefanski is an unknown in that regard. There is no clear RRB candidate, so I might have the chances of one too high here. Only Zimmer’s track record supports this rating.

Very Unlikely

I’m not going to go team-by-team for this group, which includes BAL, DAL, HOU, KC, NYG, NYJ, SF, and TB. None of them had RRBs last year. If you look at the %RRBs of the coaches of those teams, only Shurmur and Shula of the Giants are even at the 40% level. But Saquon Barkley is almost certainly going to suck up all the RB targets, making an RRB very unlikely if he’s healthy. There’s always a chance for any RB on any of these teams, but I’d watch for that on waivers and not draft for it (the signing of Bilal Powell by the Jets just as I finished this increases the chances of them using an RRB).

Unknowns

Then there’s the unknowns, teams with coaching staffs with almost no track record: ARI, CIN (Giovani Bernard), DEN, MIA (Kenyan Drake), and TEN (Dion Lewis). Drake has plenty of value as a non-receiving back. Lewis probably still has RRB value. But I’m making those judgments on the players, not the coaches.

Each of these situations bears more scrutiny as the off-season moves on. I believe it’s from the unknowns the greatest opportunities arise. But I need more information before I can point to any of these situations as having potential.