Chase Anderson, are there concerns? Homers have been an issue for Bieber. Is there reason to be bullish with Flaherty? Fried has been solid for the Braves, but… Jon Gray continues to befuddle the baseball community. Brad Keller has some positives and some negatives. What is the end result? LeBlanc or Reynaldo Lopez, which hurler is a better addition? Lyles is slumping. Matz and Miley are two lefties pitching pretty darn well. Pivetta is smoking hot. Clayton Richard is not. Eduardo Rodriguez still can’t break through. Aaron Sanchez may very well never break through either. Strasburg has broken through, and he continues to impress.
Chase Anderson’s last four starts have led to a 9.95 K/9 rate and a 0.95 BB/9 rate. That’s stellar work. However, he’s also allowed five homers and owns a 5.21 ERA in that time. Moreover, he’s worked an average of 4.8 innings per start while allowing 23 hits in 19 innings. He’s league average. He’s worth a look as a starter, given the offensive support he’s likely to receive, but he’s not a star, and frankly, it’s also unlikely that he maintains his current strikeout prowess, which will also lead to less value moving forward.
Shane Bieber has made 14 starts and he owns a 1.14 WHIP and an 11.17 K/9 rate. Those are epic numbers justifying the preseason hype he received. However, the homer continues to be an issue. To this point he’s allowed 16 homers leading to a massive 1.86 HR/9 rate, and it’s the main cause of his 4.07 ERA. Bieber has seen his 31 percent fly ball rate from last season rise to 39 percent this season, and that’s not a positive turn. The slider is great, but the fastball has surrendered a .559 SLG and .359 wOBA. Until he improves the pitch, that ERA is likely to remain volatile.
Jack Flaherty has more than a punchout per inning, but beyond that the numbers certainly don’t speak to a potential breakout that many expected. Flaherty has allowed three homers his last two starts and 1.58 per nine. That’s haunting him. Further concerns are his .345 wOBA against lefties and .377 mark on the road. Further, he’s struggled with men in scoring position allowing a .340 wOBA with a .500 SLG. A few minor tweaks are needed, but he’s a nice buy given the likely frustration with his current owner.
We aren’t the only smart creatures.
Max Fried has made 13 starts, 15 outings, for the Braves, and the numbers are rock solid (7-3, 3.75 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). However, the effort is extremely frontloaded. Over his last four outings cracks in the foundation are starting to show as he has allowed 12 runs over 15.2 innings. Fried owns a league average 10.7 percent swinging strike rate which has been mitigated by his 54 percent ground ball rate. Still, the specter of wearing down has to be addressed. Here are his innings pitched totals 2016 (103 innings), 2017 (118.2 innings), 2018 (111.1 innings) and 2019 (72 innings). It’s hard to envision there being big innings from this Brave in the second half.
Jon Gray is as frustrating as ever. He has 83 punchouts in 78 innings, as the stuff is still there. However, he’s 5-5 with a 1.38 HR/9 and 1.33 WHIP. Interestingly, he’s been better at Coors (3.00 ERA, .388 SLG, .304 wOBA) than on the road (5.06 ERA, .478 SLG, .347 wOBA), so if you’ve used traditional thinking and benched him at home and used him on the road… you’ve lost.
Rise of the machines is coming.
Brad Keller ahs permitted a .302 wOBA to lefties and a .307 mark to righties. That’s pretty impressive, both in the consistency and in the actual numbers. That said, he’s struggled the third time through an order with a .344 wOBA. Further dampening his outlook is the fact that his 6.2 K/9 rate last season is down a tenth this season at 6.1. He just doesn’t miss bats at anywhere near a level that interests. Worse yet, he is walking everyone with a 4.50 BB/9 rate. The result is a vomit inducing 1.35 K/BB. With virtually no chance that he will post a big strikeout game, it’s hard to have any level of true confidence in him as anything other than a risky streaming option.
Wade LeBlanc is more like Keller than not, but he has done one thing Keller struggles with, and that is that he keeps the free passes down. This year he has a 2.13 BB/9 rate which would be a fifth straight season with the mark under 2.30. He also strikes out a batter more per inning than Keller, though it’s hardly like a 7.1 K/9 rate is anything other than boring. Still, over his last 204.1 innings, that’s back to the start of last season, LeBlanc has been a perfectly adequate streaming option going 12-7 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. His last three starts this season he’s allowed six runs over 19 innings.
Reynaldo Lopez throws 95 mph. His last time out he allowed one run, the fifth time in 14 starts that he’s allowed 0/1 earned runs. Remarkably, he still has a 6.21 ERA as when he’s off, its bombastic beatings as he’s allowed at least six earned runs five different times (those five outings have resulted in 34 earned runs in 17 innings pitched). Oh yeah, he also has a 2.05 HR/9 rate and that includes 6-straight games with a homer allowed (nine total). I don’t know how you can even be rostering him in mixed leagues. He’s as combustible as a fusion reactor.
Jordan Lyles continues the slow fade. Over his last four outings he’s allowed 16 runs in 18.2 innings as his walk rate is way up to 3.86 per nine. Can’t say you weren’t warned. Oh, and the move to the DL with the hamstring issue… not saying he isn’t hurt, but that’s not why he has struggled of late.
Steven Matz owns a 3.50 ERA the last eight starts with 47 punchouts over 46.1 frames. Things need to change though, or he’s going to lose punchouts. On the year he has a 9.0 swinging strike rate, directly on his career mark, and his first pitch rate of 59 percent is a percent below his career rate. He’s just not a guy who profiles for more than a punchout per inning. He has maintained his career 48.9 percent ground ball rate exactly this season though, and he’s a solid innings eater, until he’s hurt, but there’s not much growth here despite the enhanced K-rate.
Wade Miley is 14 starts in and he has a 3.14 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. It’s all about the cutter. He entered 2017 having thrown the pitch about once a start in his career. Last season arrived and he tossed the cutters 42 percent of the time. This season, the mark is even higher at 49 percent. Yes, he’s basically throwing the pitch half the time. Batters are not even league average against the pitch this season with a .227 average and .304 wOBA. Keep throwing the pitch Mr. Miley. Without it you’re league average. With it, you still don’t have strikeouts, but you’re a usable piece in every format.
The end times, via Microsoft?
Nick Pivetta has made three starts since returning to the big leagues, and he punctuated his return with a complete game victory against the Reds (0 BB, 9 Ks, 1 ER). That’s one run in two starts for Pivetta, and 21 strikeouts versus two walks in the three starts. This is the guy I talked about in the preseason. Too bad it took so long for him to arrive. Still, he’s here now, and I’m still bullish on the skills.
Clayton Richard has made four starts and has allowed 12 runs and 11 walks over 15.1 innings. Why are you rostering him, even in AL-only leagues?
Eduardo Rodriguez thirteen starts in has a 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. At some point, you need to move on.
Aaron Sanchez just isn’t there, and it’s fair to question if he ever will be. Though just 26 years old, he’s constantly dealing with finger issues, and regardless of the reason, he’s just not performed. Over his last 213 innings spread out over three seasons, Sanchez is 8-16 with a 4.56 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, a 7.23 K/9 and 1.45 K/BB. Yes, that means his walk rate is massive (4.99 per nine). Big arm or not he’s not rosterable in any format. He simply doesn’t get enough outs, and he’s constantly beating himself with the free pass.
Stephen Strasburg has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 5-of-5 outings to lower his ERA to 3.36. Accompanying that mark is a stellar 1.01 WHIP and 110 punchouts in 91 innings to go with his 7-3. He’s been all that we expect him to be. Now we will just hope he can avoid the ole injury bug.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
