Every fantasy draft presents us with different scenarios that put fantasy owners in situations where a tough decision needs to be made. That’s where this new series came about. Each week I will walk you through a scenario you may be faced with on draft day and present multiple options, then choosing the way I would go about it. There will also be weeks where I just talk about one player, in a specific format and round, and elaborate on why that player will likely make my roster at that time.
This week, I’ll make it pretty easy and stick to the first round. The format here is a 12-team PPR league and the roster consists of 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-Flex, 1-Defense, and 1-Kicker. At the time the draft order was set, you find yourself at the eighth spot. Here is how the draft has gone so far:
| Pick | Player | Pos | Team |
| 1.01 | Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG |
| 1.02 | Alvin Kamara | RB | NO |
| 1.03 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | CAR |
| 1.04 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL |
| 1.05 | DeAndre Hopkins | RB | LAC |
| 1.06 | Melvin Gordon | RB | ARI |
| 1.07 | Davante Adams | WR | GB |
YOU’RE ON THE CLOCK!
There are multiple ways you can go here without a doubt. Based on my rankings, here are some of the top available options that can be drafted at the eighth pick with the players that are already off of the board.
WR Julio Jones, Falcons – Some may argue that Jones could be the first wide out to be taken on draft day, and I would not be completely opposed to that. Since 2015, he has been peppered with no less than 129 targets in a single season, with over 160 targets three times during that stretch. The one concern with him was touchdowns and last season he finished with eight touchdowns, tying his second highest mark in his NFL career. This year, Jones reunites with offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who was the OC for the Falcons the season that Jones caught a career-high 10 touchdowns. Jones averaged 93.6 yards per game under Koetter and also had a 1,500+ receiving yard season. All this was accomplished despite having Roddy White on the team who demanded a lot of targets. Aside from the reunion in Atlanta, Jones has shown to be an elite wide out in the league, finishing as a top seven receiver in fantasy points in each season since 2014. In that span, he also has two top two finishes in fantasy points at his position. This is certainly one way you can go.
RB David Johnson, Cardinals – I’m a big fan of David Johnson this season, as I think he is in a better situation than he was last year and offers a pretty high ceiling. He displayed what he is capable of doing in 2016 when he finished with 2,122 total yards and 20 total touchdowns, while catching 80 passes. That season he led all running backs in fantasy points and was nearly 100 fantasy points ahead of all other running backs in PPR formats. I am not saying that this will happen again, but I do think he can compete in the top 3-4 at this position, and you can possibly get that at the eighth pick if it works out. After missing essentially the entire 2017 season, he returned last year and totaled over 1,300 yards with 10 touchdowns and 50 receptions. This was with a different coaching staff and with a different quarterback. Personally I am not sold on Kyler Murray, but considering the potential scheme of this offense I think he will be better than Josh Rosen was for Johnson’s production. I have Johnson in the top 10 overall player rankings, so taking him here is fine by me.
WR Michael Thomas, Saints – Thomas entered the league in 2016 and since then, I have been extremely bullish on him. He has been a model of consistency finishing as a WR7 or better each season and averaging nearly 18 fantasy points per game. He has topped 1,000 receiving yards every year since entering the league and has never had fewer than 92 receptions in a single season, with 23 career touchdown catches. Drew Brees remains the signal caller in New Orleans, so the production for Thomas should continue at this level. If you are concerned about the significant decrease in passing plays for this offense last season, don’t be, Thomas accounted for 30 percent of the targets (highest mark of his career) and hit career highs in both receptions and receiving yards, tying his single season record of nine touchdown catches. In Thomas you are getting consistency with upside, making him a fine option at this spot.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., Browns – Beckham is the only player on this list that is on a new team this season, but that should not hold him back from being one of the best wide outs in the NFL. Since joining the league in 2014, he has posted 1,000+ receiving yards four times and scored 10+ touchdowns three times. In fact, the only season he failed to top 1,000 receiving yards was in 2017 where he appeared in just four games. This year he gets a quarterback upgrade with Baker Mayfield, so numbers like we saw in the first three seasons of his career, where he posted 1,300+ receiving yards and double-digit touchdowns each season, are very likely this year. Durability is a concern I have here, as he has now missed at least four games in three of his five seasons. However, there is no denying the upside here and his ability to be able to be a top three receiver at the end of the season.
RB Nick Chubb, Browns – Yes, Chubb is someone I am considering with this pick. Listen, if you watch this kid play last year, you instantly knew he was the real deal. I mean, watching him break two 40+ yard runs in Week 4 against Oakland was a thing of beauty. Still after that, he did not receive a true opportunity until Week 7 and after that, there was no looking back for Chubb. From that week forward, he averaged 17.6 carries, 82.3 rushing yards, 2.0 receptions, and 14.9 receiving yards per game, while scoring a total of eight touchdowns and averaging 4.6 yards per carry. All this was in a span of 10 games. The Browns did sign Kareem Hunt, which is worrisome, but Hunt will miss the first eight games of the season and if in that timeframe, Chubb produces at the level he was towards the second half of last season, it will be hard for the team to justify taking away any touches. In fact, I would not be at all shocked to see Chubb leading in multiple categories at his position and in the mix for top overall fantasy points by mid-season. He is the real deal in my opinion, which is why I have no issues taking him at this spot.
I left off Le’Veon Bell and James Conner, two players who, at times, are drafted in this range because I feel they both come with more risk than all of the players I suggested above. You can read more about early round running backs with red flags here.
MY CHOICE
As you can see, arguments can be made for any of the players above and even some other players that you may feel better about than the ones listed above. That being said, my pick will be Julio Jones. My decision is based on the fact that Jones could easily finish at the top of his position this year for the reasons above. In addition, I am higher on Nick Chubb than most and the likelihood of him falling back down to me in the second round is pretty good, so I would be able to lock up two players that I felt were strong options in the first round. The drop off between Jones and the receiver that would likely fall to me in the second round was much more significant than the drop off in running back value that could land considering all of the backs still left on the board.
If you have been in the same league for many years, decisions like these could be easier to make since you may be aware of the tendencies of fantasy owners in your league. Being that this is not the case in this situation, I decided to base my decision on what I have seen thus far in industry drafts I have been a part of and a compilation of ADP’s. This led me to feel strongly about Chubb being there at my second round pick, leading to my Jones pick. With that said, it is always good to prepare for your draft and adjust as it goes.
