Arguably the biggest topic of the offseason surrounds the knee of Rams RB Todd Gurley. Between the ominous reporting by multiple outlets, the strange lack of usage during the playoff run and the drafting of Darrell Henderson in round three of the NFL draft, there’s been a relative “sky is falling” panic in the fantasy community. Injuries are a cruel part of the game, and there’s a significant amount of the player pool that gets affected by them every season. The difference right now is that it’s the offseason and the only official diagnosis is Arthritis. Arthritis on a knee that’s had a major injury can be a major issue, an issue that can end careers. The word degenerative has been thrown around a lot pertaining to this situation, and it’s very plausible this could take a turn for the worst, starting in 2019. Also, it could be completely overblown, and Gurley could put together a few more really strong seasons before he ultimately succumbs to his issues.
Before we jump in, I felt it was important to go back and watch Gurley’s 2018 snaps, and the differences between the first half and second half/playoff run. There were some CLEAR differences. First of all, his straight-line ability was fine. As displayed against the Cowboys (16 rushing attempts for 115 rushing yards and a touchdown) in the playoffs, Gurley still had the same speed he always did. The big differences were in his lateral movements. This isn’t groundbreaking information, but it’s important to note what he could look like this year if he’s limited. So again, he could be back to his old self, but if not, there’s still hope he can have big games with his ability to break big runs when things are blocked properly. Gurley accumulated five receiving yards on four receptions in the playoffs, and had a 10 reception, 76 receiving yard game against the Eagles in his last regular season game (Week 14). Running routes and executing those types of plays are potentially where he could be limited in 2019, and could be a big reason why Henderson was brought in.
So… What do we do as fantasy owners in this situation? I’m gonna split this into three categories (Season-Long, Best Ball and Dynasty), and riff.
Season-Long
This is BY FAR the most difficult format to evaluate Gurley. After finishing off two straight top two fantasy RB finishes In 2017 and 2018, I’m supposed to fade Gurley and not touch him at all? Maybe. Quite honestly, if playing in a lot of leagues, completely fading Gurley this year and diversifying with other RBs is a perfectly acceptable plan. Even if he isn’t his old self, it’s likely there will be big games where the Rams offensive line can dominate, which should be quite a few. For a weekly lineup setting perspective however, this is begging for a hassle. Again, it could be worth it considering the Rams offense, but Henderson and Malcolm Brown will play a role. Especially later in the year, this could get really dicey by the fantasy playoffs. The Week-to-Week volatility makes Gurley a tough proposition in this format, ESPECIALLY when he cost a first round selection.
Things have changed, however. Gurley’s ADP is down to 16.4 on FF calculator, and dropping.. Gurley has gone as late as 2.12 in mock drafts, and there’s a real chance that could be lower in the coming months. Gurley has also been getting past the 2/3 turn in FPPC drafts pretty consistently. At that price, it’s getting close to the range where the potential makes sense. Especially if and/or when Gurley’s value hits the third round, I’ll feel comfortable going down with the ship. If drafting Gurley here, that DOES NOT mean you have to handcuff with Henderson. This is an all-in, going for the win type gamble, and rosters should be built accordingly. Henderson’s cost is growing by the day, and unless you think he’s Kamara 2.0, he is far from a need for Gurley drafters.
Best Ball
This is a much different scenario, and a place I’d be willing to gamble much more. Gurley currently has a 16.0 ADP on DRAFT, and a 12.4 in BestBall10s. There’s a very wide variance on where he lands, and the late second round isn’t out of the equation either. If you can team him with another top RB and land him as an RB2, this could have some serious potential in this format. Even at 15 touches a week, Gurley will have a high floor for weekly production, which can keep teams struggling with injuries or other RB issues afloat. Again, this ADP could drop even further, and once he hits the third round, I’d be willing to increase exposure substantially. As things currently stand, he’s being drafted around some elite WRs like Julio Jones, Odell Beckhamand Mike Evans, which are much safer options. If he does find his way past those three, I’d jump on it.
Dynasty
I have Gurley in 50% of my dynasty leagues, and even before the Jay Glazer and Ian Rappoport reports, there simply wasn’t a market to trade him. Yes, 5.0. FIVE. ZERO. Half of my leagues! This tells you two things. First, the last two years have treated me well from an ROI standpoint. Second, I’m currently in pain thinking of the nosedive my teams will take if Gurley evaporates. Even before writing this piece, I’ve spent a lot of time this offseason grappling with what the correct play with Gurley is. It always comes back to the same answer. If in a league where Gurley was on a roster heading into the offseason, he NEEDS to stay on that roster. You’re pot committed. The car is off the lot, and if heading back to the dealership now, you’re selling for 60 cents on the dollar (or maybe even less). Gurley still has significant upside, and that simply isn’t being priced into his value. This eventually happens with all RBs and aging dynasty assets, but he’s simply worth more on your roster than in a trade. Even if rebuilding, don’t give other owners in the league the satisfaction of pulling off a potential buy-low opportunity. If he were still going for first round prices, sell off, but even trying those types of offers gets an offended response in email form (trust me, I’ve tried).
Startup
In a startup Gurley simply isn’t draft-able. The market has made up their mind, and you can’t unring that bell. Essentially, Gurley is going to be viewed as a ticking time bomb until he actually goes off, and even if that’s not for years, it doesn’t matter. Considering his market value will never recover, especially since he’ll still be a top four round startup pick, there’s no avenue for that to make sense. Why draft an asset that will not only give you weekly headaches, but has no redeeming qualities in a trade? There’s other win-now assets, especially at RB, that don’t cost a top four round startup selection. If you’re an owner in an established league, and have significant depth that can afford a high upside gamble on a win-now player, I think this is a great time to buy Gurley. Again, the young assets need to be there. Gurley is no longer the anchor of a dynasty teams perceived value, but he can put a win-now team over the top.
The other side of this is Henderson, and how he relates to Gurley from a dynasty perspective. Unlike most, I don’t think the two are connected AT ALL at this stage in the game. I left rookie draft season drafting ZERO shares of Henderson, a prospect that I was incredibly high on throughout the process, and was my 5th ranked RB in the 2019 class post-draft. Henderson is a talent in his own right, and there’s plenty of production in the Los Angeles offense to go around for multiple RBs to flourish. With that said, Gurley’s only battle is his knee, and handcuffing isn’t going to save you if Gurley goes down. Henderson isn’t a featured RB, and nobody would tell you otherwise. He would be optimally used in a Kamara on the Saints type role, and if having conviction on Henderson as a prospect, then the future of Gurley isn’t really relevant. Just because I didn’t leave with shares of Henderson doesn’t mean I don’t like him, it simply means I don’t view his value as tied to Gurley.
