This week’s “Tyler’s Thoughts” analyzes a new topic on a subject that I feel strongly about, yet drafters don’t seem to share similar confidence. That immediately made me want to start writing about why my conviction is so high in my early rankings.
I’m talking about breaking down the second tier of tight ends. While some may group Eric Ebron in this category, I’ve already addressed those concerns marking him as one of my top fades this season. His inevitable touchdown regression isn’t worth diving into here, so I’m including the Tier 2 as follows: O.J. Howard, Hunter Henry, and Evan Engram.
Current ADP from Bestball10’s has this second tier as Henry (61.8), Howard (62.9), and Engram (63.4) over the past two weeks. Considering all three are separated in ADP by just a few spots each, drafters are either having a difficult time distinguishing which tight end to prioritize, or are facing an epic sense of FOMO in wanting to secure a top tight end.
Let’s take a close look at how each of these players has historically performed and then go player-by-player examining how each one could be the potential leader of this tier.
2018 Review
Injuries are a common theme here, but let’s take a look at how this tier performed across a level playing field. Henry missed his entire third season (last year). This allows us a chance to look at each player’s start to their career on a level playing field — their first two seasons in the league.
| Tight End | G | Tgts | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TDs | Y/Tgt | YPRR | RR% | RZ Tgts |
| O.J. Howard | 24 | 87 | 60 | 997 | 11 | 11.5 | 2.06 | 46.35% | 13 |
| Hunter Henry | 29 | 115 | 81 | 1,057 | 12 | 9.2 | 2.02 | 44.66% | 29 |
| Evan Engram | 26 | 179 | 109 | 1,299 | 9 | 7.3 | 1.60 | 64.83% | 18 |
The first thing that stands out to me is that despite them all having roughly the same number of games, they were all used differently in their respective offenses. Howard’s 11.5 yards per target and 2.06 yards per route run (YPRR) pace the group. He was clearly more utilized as a downfield threat. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Engram’s 7.3 yards per target and his whopping 179 targets (6.9 per game) show he was used closer to the line of scrimmage and utilized on a much more frequent basis. His 64.83% route run percentage dwarfs the other two candidates. Henry’s biggest accomplishment going for him is his heavy red zone usage. 29 targets combined over the 2016 and 2017 seasons is nothing to scoff at, particularly when you combine that with his impressive 2.02 YPRR.
With each player having differing strengths, how can we distinguish between which tight end to prioritize in our 2019 fantasy drafts?
O.J. Howard’S 2019 OUTLOOK
Bruce Arians “lack of tight end usage” can safely be discarded as a poor narrative that holds little ground. His top tight ends at his previous stop in Arizona (five seasons): Jermaine Gresham, Ricky Seals-Jones, Darren Fells, John Carlson, and Rob Housler. Not exactly a murderer’s row of top receiving talent.
He now inherits first-round pick Howard, who many believed when he was coming into the draft, was a complete product with an “elite ceiling”. Howard’s shown already that he can be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses and that’s exactly how Arians wants to utilize him in his offense. “…he’s obviously a mismatch for safeties and linebackers, so you’re trying to use him in a lot of different ways.”.
Howard has spent time working as inline tight end and out wide in the slot. That free release he gets when operating out of the slot has worked to his advantage so far during his career. Last year, his YPRR climbed to 2.32 when motioned out to the slot. He also ended up scoring four of his five touchdowns from there in 2018. The departure of Adam Humphries opens up the potential for some signficant routes to be claimed operating out of the slot in 2019.
With Arians’ history of a heavy pass-oriented game plan, don’t be surprised if we see Howard in line for a sizable role in this offense. Not only has Arians historically thrown heavily, his squads have done it with pace when he’s had reliable quarterbacks. His Arizona squads ranked top-10 in both plays per game and seconds per play each of his final two years with the Cardinals. That equates to a large passing pie with plenty to go around to Howard. Despite the additions of some lower-end free agents and rookies, Howard should easily find himself third in terms of targets on this offense behind only Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Howard’s combination of downfield usage (11.5 YPT), projected volume (Arians effect), and the unaccounted vacated targets (DeSean Jackson and Humphries combined for 179 targets), gives Howard the highest ceiling of this group and the highest potential to be the tier leader.
Hunter Henry’S 2019 OUTLOOK
When I look at how the 2018 season played out for the Chargers, the biggest statistical regression I see coming is Mike Williams‘ inevitable touchdown regression. Williams scored 10 receiving touchdowns last year during a season in which Henry was sidelined. Last year’s tight ends — Antonio Gates and Virgil Green — combined for just three.
While the case for Howard focuses more on elevated passing volume, the case for Henry comes down to touchdown potential. The Chargers ranked toward the middle of the pack in terms of red zone trips per game last season (3.3), but they were highly efficient whenever they made these trips. They converted those trips into touchdowns at a 64.4% clip, a top-10 rate in the league last year. Their heaviest contributor in this area was Melvin Gordon. Gordon saw 28.6% of the Chargers’ opportunities (targets plus rushing attempts) inside the 20-yard line scoring 11 times, and was actually one of the more efficient scorers the closer he got the goal line. Williams was second on the team in terms of scoring, reaching the end zone eight different times from inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Gates and Green combined for three receiving touchdowns.
I’m showing you these numbers to illustrate just how much Williams was used in the red zone as a replacement of the tight ends. We’ve historically seen Philip Rivers rely heavily on his tight ends throughout his career, with Gates a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame once he finally hangs them up. Henry’s already a perfect example of that with him seeing 17 red zone targets as a rookie and 12 in his sophomore campaign. History tells us that given Rivers’ track record, Henry should slide right back into that productive scoring role, likely at the unfortunate expense of Williams.
While there are some targets to be redistributed between Tyrell Williams (65) and Gates (if he stays retired (45)), most of those 110 targets should find their way to Henry after he net zero in 2018. Williams should see some of his targets redistributed — fewer red zone targets, more between the 20’s — and Keenan Allen remains a target hog in this offense with a near-30% target share. Henry also has receiving threats in the running game to worry about with Gordon and Austin Ekeler. Gordon (5.5 targets per game) and Ekeler (3.8) both play a receiving role in this offense to take away targets and limit the overall upside of Henry outside the red zone. Despite his red zone success, Henry’s career targets per game (3.97) represent a signficant volume concern.
Given Henry’s red zone history and what should be a redistribution of most of those targets from Williams to Henry, Henry’s best chance to lead this second tier of tight ends is through highly efficient scoring. With how well-rounded this squad is on both sides of the ball, it’s not out of the possibility. Unfortunately, given how random touchdown variance can be, it’s not something I want to invest heavily in outside bestball drafts.
Evan Engram’S 2019 OUTLOOK
The biggest argument currently constructed for Engram is his splits with and without Odell Beckham Jr. in the lineup.
| Split | G | Tgts | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TDs |
| with OBJ | 7 | 33 | 23 | 257 | 2 |
| without OBJ | 4 | 31 | 22 | 320 | 1 |
Without Beckham in the lineup last year, Engram’s numbers went up across the board — significantly. His fantasy points per game climbed from 8.8 PPG up to 15.7 PPG (full-PPR). Despite missing five games in 2018 (hamstring), Engram finished as the fantasy TE13, but his 15.7 PPG-pace would’ve netted him a TE4 finish. Entering 2019, we can expect last year’s uptick in efficiency without Beckham to hover around the same area. Engram should remain a focal point of the passing attack as the Giants try to go another season with Eli Manning at the helm.
The one good thing about the Giants’ stubbornness to stick with Manning is that at this stage of his career he can’t throw downfield as well. He finished last season fourth in passes that went 20-plus yards, but completed just 39.1%. Utilizing the underneath weapons — of which the Giants currently have an abundance of now between Engram, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Saquon Barkley — is the Giants’ front office way of trying to stick another band-aid on the 38-year-old Manning.
Another positive in Engram’s book is that the Giants defense will likely have the Giants in passing situations late in games more often than not. They were a bottom-10 unit in DVOA last season, which should provide negative gamescript for the Giants to try to climb back into in 2019. New York also ranked second in seconds per play when trailing by at least seven points in games. That means they’re not only going to be passing heavily (64.0% last year, top-five rate), they’ll likely be doing it at a quick pace considering they have the fourth-lowest projected win rate among all 32 teams by Vegas.
Engram’s career targets (179) was something that differentiated him from the other two tight end candidates when taking a cursory glance at their respective careers. His target share crested in 2017 with a 20% mark and he’ll need to get there again in 2019 if he hopes to finish ahead of Howard and Henry. His biggest roadblock to that could be the addition of Tate, who has seen at least 100-plus targets each of the previous five seasons. Tate has been operating all over the formation in minicamp and looks like he’ll be an integral piece to their offensive success in 2019.
Conclusion
All three tight ends realistically have a shot at leading this tier in fantasy points. It’ll be one of the more interesting things to look back on in 2020 and see how each player fared. When things are this close, the best recommendation is to just sit back and let the bottom of the tier fall into your lap and scoop the third player up once the other two are drafted — ideally in the sixth round.
However, for those that want definitive, bold statements, I’m very bullish on the potential for O.J. Howard this year and wouldn’t blame anyone for kicking off the Tier 2 tight end drafting by grabbing him in the late fifth. Howard’s combination of high efficiency, potential volume, and lack of competition for targets make him the clear leader of this Tier 2 at the tight end position. Henry’s touchdown potential in one of the league’s most explosive offenses makes him the second priority. With all the mouths to feed in New York, Engram falls to overall TE6 by default. After a year where three tight ends separated themselves from the pack, don’t be surprised if this Tier 2 makes some noise in 2019.
