Jake Bauers has been awful. Are those Bobby Bradley footsteps we’re hearing? Asdrubal and Encarnacion are two veterans who are producing. What the hell is going on with Tommy La Stella and Tom Murphy? Soler has been productive, really. Trumbo is nearing a return to action. Should you care? What is going on with Winker? Is MadBum pitching as poorly as some folks suggest? Hendricks has certainly found his game. Treinen is looking for his. Finally, two arms (Pablo Lopez and Adrian Sampson) that deserve a second look.
HITTERS
Did you see the Yordan Alvarez Player Profile yet?
Jake Bauers is hitting .212/.300/.355 for the Indians. Through 157 career games he has an 18-70-74-8 effort. However, he’s also hit an anemic .205 with a ghastly .683 OPS. Flat out, he’s been far less than was advertised. I’ve received questions about Bobby Bradley (.279-17-46 with a .924 OPS at Triple-A) and a potential call up to replace Bauers. First off, Bauers has only played 12 games at first this season. Second, Carlos Santana has been the full-time first sacker for the Indians, and he’s having the best season of his career (.912 OPS). Third, Bradley has a massive 32.4 percent K-rate at Triple-A this season giving him a 33 percent K-rate in 89 games with the Clippers at Triple-A. Bauer doesn’t really deserve to keep playing, I mean sure he does but not really, and Santana can play the outfield with Bradley at first if the club wanted to make that move. We’re almost certainly past the Super 2 date as well, so Bradley could be called up with the team maintaining control. Bradley would appear to be one of many, potential callups that could be used as a corner infielder in mixed leagues in the second half or end up failing to create any traction without a strong start when given the chance leading him to be waiver-wire material after the initial interest.
Asdrubal Cabrera has had a down season to date, or has he? He hit a homer Sunday, amongst his three hits, giving him 14 hits in 31 at-bats (.452). Asdrubal has a .805 OPS, slightly above the .780 mark he posted the last two seasons, and after hitting 23 homers in 2-of-3 seasons he already has 10 homers in 56 games. Solid is as solid does.
Edwin Encarnacion is 36 years of age and pretty much a DH option at this point, but the man can still blast. Each of the past seven years he’s gone at least 32-98, and with 20 homers and 46 RBI through 63 games he’s on pace to get there yet again. Over his last nine games he’s hit seven homers. He’s streaking. He’s good. He’s a lock and load and forget about slugger.
Tommy La Stella has 15 homers, 16 walks and 18 strikeouts. Seriously. He has three homers, nine runs scored and a .368 batting average in nine games in June. At some point it ends, potentially in a significant manner, but there’s no sign of it at the moment which is flat out remarkable. Can’t believe it, but he’s continuing his amazing start with few signs of regression.
Tom Murphy was supposed to be a big-time power hitter. We waited for years for the Rockie backstop to deliver on that potential. It never happened. He’s been moved to the Mariners, and suddenly, five years later, the power bat has emerged. It’s only 82 plate appearances, but that .307-7-14 effort with a .950 OPS is amazing. He has a masssssssive 40 percent K rate and a 0.09 BB/K which is so hideous I don’t even know how to quantify it. Murphy also has a .436 BABIP which, well, you know. You can try to add him and get a couple of weeks of production out of him, but the lack of walks, all the punchouts, and that absurd BABIP signifies danger is ahead.
I know that everyone talks about Franmil Reyes (.248-19-33), so my question is this. Why don’t those same folks also talk about Jorge Soler who has 17 homers and 44 RBI with a .241 average on the year? Yes, the numbers are virtually identical for both outfielders. Over his last 18 games Sole’s hit just .221, and that’s awful, but in those 18 games he’s been the 2019 Mr. Slugger version of an offensive performer with seven homers and 17 RBI in a massive power effort. He’s up to 79 punchouts in 245 at-bats which is horrible, but the Royals are content to let him play daily, and he’s producing plenty of power, albeit with holes (.243 average and .293 OBP).
Mark Trumbo (knee) is getting a checkup Monday, and it seems likely he will be activated at some point this week. He could struggle for playing time with Renato Nunez blasting away in the DH role and Trey Mancini playing first base/outfield, oh, and of course, Chris Davis lurking. Trumbo is looking like an AL-only play in the short term. Speaking of the Orioles, anyone notice that Hanser Alberto has been insanely good of late? Alberto likely qualifies at second, third and shortstop, and the last three weeks his slash line is absurd (.384/.408/.493). He’s been even better with 13 hits in 29 at-bats (.448 average). Still has a mere .393 SLG on the year, so while he’s slapping out hits, it should be clear that power isn’t part of the package. Nor is a .300 batting average long-term.
Jesse Winker just cannot get going in the manner expected. The last three weeks he has a .379 OBP, and that was what was expected before the season began. The .280 batting average in that time is also totally useable. However, he has no homers, two RBI and a .360 SLG in the 15 games. He’s either been all power, or all OBP, but it’s just not come together as of yet. The hits are coming, that .243 BABIP is going up, and one has to figure that his horrible work on the road will also improve (.200/.292/.360). I’m still a fan, and still have hopes of a strong second half, meaning I want to own him, but there’s no way around the fact that he’s been a disappointment to date.
PITCHERS
Over his last eight outings, Madison Bumgarner is just 2-2. However, that doesn’t speak to how well he’s actually pitched with 49 strikeouts in 49.1 innings, a mere 2.19 BB/9 rate and a 1.20 WHIP. MadBum has thrown at least six innings in each of the eight outings tossing seven quality starts in the process. The only issue has been the homer as he’s allowed eight long balls in eight outings.
Kyle Hendricks’ last eight starts since the start of May; 6-0, 1.99 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and a 8.33 K/BB ratio. He’s been less predictable in two strike counts, throwing his changeup less, and that has seemingly helped him to regain some of the luster he lost early in the season.
Pablo Lopez has 69 punchouts in 69.2 innings with a 1.12 WHIP for the Marlins. Alas, few have seemingly noticed given that he’s 4-5 with a 4.26 ERA. The youngster has made 13 starts, though one was a nightmarish outing against the Mets when he allowed 10 runs while generating three outs. Let’s remove that one outing. In his other 12 trips to the bump, Lopez has a 0.99 WHIP with a 3.10 ERA. Probably would be looking at him differently if those were her numbers, right?
Adrian Sampson, a righty for the Rangers, is 27 years old and entered the 2019 season with all of six big league outings, so you are forgiven for knowing little to nothing about him. However, in seven starts this season he’s been so-so, but of late there are signs of success. Overall the 4.93 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in seven starts stink. Still, his last five outings he’s looked like a totally different man with a 1.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a 8.53 K/9 with a 10.00 K/BB ratio. The first pitch strike rate, swinging strike rate and O-swing rates are all league average this season. The 0.90 GB/FB ratio, that’s who he is, also brings danger with the homer being a big impact. His 44 percent hard-hit rate is way above the league average. His fastball velocity is basically league average, and the spin rate on the pitch is extremely low. He’s pitching well, but there isn’t much in the overall profile that suggests he will keep up his recent work or be anything more than a streaming option in mixed leagues.
Blake Treinen is 14-for-16 in save conversions. However, the rest of his game is miles from where is was last season. The K/9 rate is down to 8.91 per nine while the walk rate has spiked to an absurd 5.01 per nine. The resulting 1.78 K/BB ratio is hideous, and three full points off his mark of 4.76 from last season. He’s getting it done, but it’s been ugly and you have to have some level of concern if you own him.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
