What’s up Fantasy Guru fam! Injuries in the NFL happen every season, some keep players out for a week, others for a couple of weeks, and some could be season-ending. Last year we saw a fair amount of injuries that kept players off the field for the entire season and others for a big percentage of the year. Like every other year, these are things we have to consider when investing on a player the following year. Not all players return to form following a major injury and it is never easy trying to figure out expectations on such players.
Now that OTAs have begun and training camp is around the corner, it is always a good idea to keep tabs on players coming off of injuries and see where they stand. Some will be a full-go, others will not, but keeping an eye on the progress could give you some perspective as to what we can expect from these players at the start of the season. Below I will go over some players who suffered season-ending injuries last year and what my thoughts are on them.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos – Sanders tore his Achilles during practice in December last season. He missed the final four games of the season because of it. It’s unfortunate for Sanders, since he was on pace for another 1,000 receiving yards season. He has now missed four games in each of the last two seasons, making him risky at this stage of his career. So far, reports suggest that he could return to action at some point in mid-July. Even if that is the case, he is 32 years old and returning from a torn Achilles, so it is best to temper expectations. His current ADP is somewhere in the 10th round in PPR formats, which seems relatively fair considering the situation.
Cooper Kupp, Rams – I was very high on Kupp last year and it seemed like it was going to pay off before he was injured. Kupp was on pace for 80 receptions, 1,132 receiving yards, and twelve touchdowns, not to mention 270 fantasy points which would have been top 12 in PPR formats, before going down with a season-ending ACL injury. He also averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game in PPR formats, which was top 15. At this time, Kupp is reportedly on track to be ready for the start of the season. He has been working with trainers on the side during OTAs, but has been able to jog with the team. Returning from ACL injuries can be tricky, but considering that Kupp is still young and on the right track in his recovery, I am willing to take my chances again with him this season, even at his current fourth round ADP. It was clear that this offense missed his presence on the field last year.
A.J. Green, Bengals – Durability is becoming more of a concern for Green in recent years, as he has played an entire season in just two of his last five. He was placed on the injured reserve last year after playing just nine games with a toe issue. He underwent surgery to repair it, shed his walking boot in February, and is expected to be ready to participate in practice at some point in June. Despite the injury concerns, Green remains a top-end receiver that needs to be considered on draft day. He has posted 1,000+ receiving yards seasons in six of his eight seasons, has an impressive career average of 80.2 receiving yards per game, and has six or more touchdown passes in all but one season. His late third round ADP could end up being a steal if he can stay healthy all season.
Christian Kirk, Cardinals – Kirk was having a decent rookie campaign before breaking his foot in December and being forced to sit out the rest of the year. He played 12 games, catching 43 passes for 590 yards and three touchdowns. Considering how bad this offense was last season, those are not that bad of numbers and if you watched the games, he displayed nice upside. At this time, he is nearly 100 percent recovered from the injury, which is good news as he needs to get on the field and get acquainted with his new quarterback. Kirk should be able to pick up where he left off last year and turn in another strong outing. There is breakout upside here, so his late eighth round ADP is intriguing.
Marqise Lee, Jaguars – Lee missed all of last season after tearing his ACL in the preseason. Reports suggest that he will likely return at some point late in the preseason. When healthy, Lee will be competing for targets and has a shot to operate as the No. 1 receiver in this group. He is currently being overlooked in most drafts, so using one of your last round picks on him as a low-risk/high-reward option is not that bad of an idea, especially in best ball formats.
RUNNING BACKS
Devonta Freeman, Falcons – Freeman appeared in just two games last year as he battled multiple injuries. The one that put him on the shelf was his groin injury. After being placed on the IR early in the season, the team decided not to bring him back in December, ruling him out for the remainder of the year. The good news for Freeman is that he is a full-go at OTAs and is not showing any lingering effects of the injury. Another plus for Freeman this year is that there is no Tevin Coleman, who would cut into a lot of his work. In 2015 & 2016, Freeman rushed for double-digit touchdowns and finishing as a top six running back in each of those years. That is the type of upside he offers and coming into this season there is plenty to like about him, making him an easy buy at his current third round ADP.
Jerick McKinnon, 49ers – Expectations were high for McKinnon last summer as he was on a new team and was expected to be the lead back. That took a wrong turn after he tore his ACL during practice in September. He underwent surgery and is on track to return for training camp. Unlike last year, McKinnon has competition this season, as the team signed Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida was impressive when given the opportunity last year. There is a good chance that we will be seeing a committee in San Francisco this season, making him a risky option coming off of an injury like this one.
Derrius Guice, Redskins – Guice missed his entire rookie season, after tearing his ACL during the preseason. Unlike most of the other players on this list that underwent successful surgery and are on the right track, Guice dealt with infections during his rehab, forcing multiple other surgeries. In February, a video of him running at full speed in straight line was posted online and at this time he is expected to be a full-go during training camp. It is something worth keeping close tabs on because if healthy, Guice has a good shot to be the every-down back in Washington, despite Adrian Peterson still in the picture. Guice’s ADP is currently early sixth round, but it would not be at all surprising if we see that moving upwards with a strong preseason.
Jay Ajayi, Free Agent – Ajayi tore his ACL last October, keeping off the field for more than half of the season. He is currently a free agent and could end up getting signed before the start of the season, but truth be told it is unlikely he will have a significant role anywhere at this point. He has yet to play a full season since entering the league.
QUARTERBACKS
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers – After an impressive end to the 2017 season with his new team, Garoppolo appeared in three games in 2018 before tearing his ACL. He was not as sharp in his first game last year, but did play well in the second and third week. All signs point in the right direction for Garoppolo’s recovery, as he has been cleared for training camp and has been limited in OTAs. Barring any setbacks, he should be ready to go to start the season. He can be considered a QB2 with upside heading into the season and should be targeted in all two-QB formats.
Andy Dalton, Bengals – Dalton tore ligaments in his thumb last year and missed the final five games of the season. He was off to a quick start in 2018, before coming back down to reality. With a new coach in town, Dalton’s leash is likely short. The Bengals hired coach Zac Taylor and also drafted a quarterback in the fourth round this season. For now, it is Dalton’s job to lose, but a slot start to the season could put him at risk to lose the job, especially with his contract expiring this year.
Alex Smith, Redskins – I still remember watching the injury to Smith last season and it still makes my stomach turn. It was absolutely brutal to watch. There was no doubt his season was over and there are concerns that he may never play another game of football again. Although the latter part of that sentence remains to be seen, the Redskins are not expecting to have Smith under center this season. He underwent surgery and dealt with some complications, but at this time, he is recovering nicely. From a fantasy standpoint, Smith will almost certainly not have an impact this season. We do however, wish him a continued positive track in his recovery process.
TIGHT ENDS
Hunter Henry, Chargers – Henry tore his ACL during OTAs last year and underwent ACL surgery, missing the entire 2018 regular season. However, he did make an appearance in the post season, as he played in the Divisional Round against the Patriots. Although he was not at all effective, it was promising to see him back on the field and what it meant for his health heading into this season. Henry is a bounce-back candidate for many this season, including myself. Although it’s a small sample size, he has displayed some nice upside and now that he is the primary tight end on the offense, he should get plenty of opportunities to shine.
Greg Olsen, Panthers – Olsen battled a foot injury last year and after trying to play through it, he called it quits after Week 13 when he re-injured it. It was the second straight year that his season was cut short due to a foot injury. Having played only 16 games in the last two seasons and at age 34, there has to be a lot of concern with Olsen’s durability in 2019. He has been medically cleared for all football activities as of May and at this time there appears to have been no setbacks. It is certainly a situation worth monitoring throughout training camp and the preseason. Being that this position is volatile and it is hard to find consistent production out of it, when Olsen is healthy, he can still be considered a top 12 tight end in most formats.
Tyler Eifert, Bengals – Since breaking out in 2015 with 13 touchdowns, it has been frustrating for Eifert who has played just 14 games in the last three seasons. Durability continues to be a big issue for him, as he has never logged in a full season and has played more than eight games just twice in his six year career. At this time, he is healthy and expected to be all hands on deck for training camp. That being said, there is just too much risk involved with Eifert considering his injury plagued career, so anything more than an extremely late round flier is not something I’d advise. Even that is pushing it at this point.
