LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE – Yordan Alvarez is up so even more reason to save your coin for next week. Of course this sentiment is for NFBC players who have to wait until next Sunday to bid for him. I’m guessing if you’re in a first-come/first-serve league, you’ve already scooped him up (if not, do so right away). If you CAN bid on him this week, be prepared to go up 70% of your remaining budget. He’s not a fantastic defender and would need to struggle badly in those first couple of weeks to get send down. Just don’t think that’s happening. Enjoy the ride if you’re able to pick him up.
SUNDAY UPDATE – Very little to report and few to add.
Tanner Anderson (A’s RHP) was promoted from Triple-A to make Monday’s spot start. The former Pirates’ semi-prospect has struggled in the minors thus far (6.26 ERA, 10.2% BB in 10 starts). No FAAB Value, nothing to see here.
Dinelson Lamet (Padres LHP) is a couple weeks away from cracking this rotation if no setbacks. He served up 5 ER in his last rehab start but mechanically looks okay, which is the most important part. He’s a potential stash in 15’s.
Speaking of the Padres, Josh Naylor has been somewhat of a pleasant surprise, with 11 RBI in hs first 45 PA and is in the lineup playing left field when they face a righty. The Padres do get six RHP’s this week and go to Coors. As the Padres get healthier and bring guys off IL (Franchy, for one), someone like Naylor could be the first to go. He has a near-30% K rate and has yet to draw a walk in the majors. Someone to stream in 15’s for cheap.
Make that back-to-back gems now for Rangers’ righty Adrian Sampson who is a 15-team bid with longterm hold potential. Next week’s start is a doozie though (@ BOS) so if you’re in a pinch for a live body for your lineup this week, you may want to prioritize others first and just include him for cheap on your conditional bids. A bit of fool’s gold if you ask me.
Welcome to the weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one- and two-dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
WEEK 12 PREVIEW
Another week where it’s wiser for us to save our money. If there are young starting pitchers like Jon Duplantier or Alex Reyes still available in your leagues, make sure you do what you have to do to add them (especially if your pitching categories could use the potential lightning in a bottle). At some point soon, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Aledmys Diaz will return from IL, which will result in some of our favorite recent streamers (Straw, Kemp, Fisher) getting less playing time or optioned outright.
The Dbacks’ getting Jake Lamb back soon is another situation to pay attention to, as minor league slugger Kevin Cron continues to get the shuttling treatment and could be sent back down at any time. Many leagues saw folks dropping Nicky Lopez after a rough week, and I’d certainly consider snagging him in those 15’s where you have middle infield holes to plug.
From a scheduling perspective, it’s all about loading up on those streamers in relation to the all-home week at Coors Field (more on that later). Make sure though, you’re not dropping hitters or pitchers you like for some of these one-week rentals simply because your player had a rough week. Assess the current options for your starting lineup in relation to next week’s schedule as well as in relation to which categories you’re deficient in that need help.
Figuring out who to drop is oftentimes more difficult than figuring out who we’re bidding on or our bid order. That’s where looking ahead in the schedule for two or three weeks comes in handy with our fringe guys.
Does our fringe OF5 project to sit more often in the next few weeks because they only hit LHPs well but have a gaggle of RHPs on the schedule? Or perhaps, they have some @ MIA, @ SF-type stadium visits that aren’t at all intriguing for offensive purposes. And on the flip side – perhaps our cold, under-performing hitter has some @ BAL, @ NYY, @ COL coming up soon, and it’s best to stay patient and ride him out on the bench for a week until it’s time for those matchups. There are just so many layers to our decision-making, hence the deeper we dig in, the more confident we can be with our actions.
PITCHERS
Not the best collection of talent among two-steppers, but the following SPs projected for two starts should be locked in for you:
- Hyun-Jin Ryu (LH/LAD) – @ LAA, v CHC
- Chris Sale (LH/BOS) – v TEX, @ BAL
- Jose Berrios (RH/MIN) – v SEA, v KCR
- Charlie Morton (RH/TBR) – v OAK, v LAA
- Mike Foltynewicz (RH/ATL) – v PIT, v PHI
- Anibal Sanchez (RH/WAS) – @ CHW, v ARI
- Griffin Canning (RH/LAA) – v LAD, @ TB
- Masahiro Tanaka (RH/NYY) – v NYM, @ CHW
These guys you’ll probably start in all formats as well, but some of them carry some risk:
- Mike Minor (LH/TEX) – @ BOS, @ CIN
- Felix Pena (RH/LAA) – v LAD, @ TB
- German Marquez (RH/COL) – v CHC, v SDP
- Yu Darvish (RH/CHC) – @ COL, @ LAD
- Joe Musgrove (RH/PIT) – @ ATL, @ MIA
- Jerad Eickhoff (RH/PHI) – v ARI, @ ATL
- Dakota Hudson (RH/STL) – @ MIA, @ NYM
- Jalen Beeks (LH/TBR) – v OAK, v LAA
- Spencer Turnbull (RH/DET) – @ KC, v CLE
- Kevin Gausman (RH/ATL) – v PIT, v PHI
- Jon Duplantier (RH/ARI) – @ PHI, @ WAS
From this group, all but Hudson are owned in over 85%-plus of NFBC Main Event leagues. Minor listed in this section only because of the tough road two-step, but I’d still roll him out there since he’s been ace material most of the season. Pena got blasted for seven earned runs against the A’s last week (1.2 IP) and saw his sub-1.00 ERA balloon to 1.14 in a jiffy. It really doesn’t get much tougher than Dodgers/Rays, who are both top-ranked offenses against RHPs.
Marquez and Darvish are tough decisions for folks whose roto teams already have ERA’s that are worse than 4.00 and don’t want additional damage. I feel much more comfortable rolling out Marquez where I own him and benching Darvish in spots where he could easily get wrecked. Musgrove, Turnbull and Beeks, I’ll use this week in both 12 and 15-teamers where I own them. Don’t own any Eickhoff shares, and not sure I trust him either. Hudson isn’t as bad as some of us think. A mighty low 6.19 K/9, but he’s allowed more than three runs in a start just once in 13. With Miami and the Mets on the docket, I’d gamble. Duplantier’s two-start week look tough on paper, but he’s one of my favorite young arms for a couple years now, as I’ve been waiting for him to enter the rotation. Looked sharp against the Dodgers last week (5 IP – 2 ER – 1 BB – 7 K).
Dangerous 15-team streamers *ownership listed for 15-team NFBC Main Event leagues
- *Peter Lambert (RH/COL, 0%) – v CHC, v SDP
- Michael Wacha (RH/STL, 24%) – @ MIA, @ NYM
- Mike Leake (RH/SEA, 32%) – @ MIN, @ OAK
- Trent Thornton (RH/TOR, 75%) – @ BAL, @ HOU
- John Means (LH/BAL, 95%) – v TOR, v BOS
- Sandy Alcantara (RH/MIA, 63%) – v STL, v PIT
- Jason Vargas (LH/NYM, 20%) – @ NYY, v STL
- Jake Junis (RH/KCR, 85%) – v DET, @ MIN
- Manny Banuelos (LH/CHW, 2%) – v WAS, v NYY
- Taylor Clarke (RH/ARI, 0%) – @ PHI, @ WAS
Lambert is the ‘prize’ of the 15-team FAAB pool, but it’s one that could end up backfiring on us. Some of us got rope-a-doped by Twins’ lefty Devin Smeltzer last weekend. A stud minor leaguer, Smeltzer dealt in his debut prior to last Sunday’s bids and was expected to get two starts this week only to get crushed in his first start and get sent down to Triple-A before his second start (with Pineda coming off IL). Avoiding the ‘whoever smelt it, dealt it’ pun here, but Lambert coming off an incredibly impressive MLB debut in Wrigley could be in a similar position here with two in Coors Field against tough offenses. Lambert is their best pitching prospect and has a better shot at sticking in this rotation than Smeltzer did in Minny, but we’ll have many weeks where we’ll be spending way too much time deciding whether to put him into our starting lineups or bench him. For that reason, only bid on him if your ratios can handle it and if you plan on playing him for the home two-step.
We’ll see some folks in on Wacha, as some of you fools just can’t quit him. Wacha is slated in ‘heavy pencil’ for that @ MIA start as the team prepares for the inevitable call-up of Alex Reyes. Though I avoid Wacha like the plague, I do believe moving him to the bullpen was a good motivation technique. Though in his first relief appearance for Genesis Cabrera on 5/29, he served up three homers, three walks and six runs in a single inning. Followed that up with a clean 2.1 innings a few days later. Either way, you know the inherent risk with Wacha, so bid at your discretion knowing full well it’s possible he only gets one start this week with Reyes and Daniel Ponce de Leon looming.
The moment you begin to trust Leake is the moment he turns heel on you. Fantastic over his last two home starts (two quality starts at home in his last two including a complete game against the Astros), but prior to that, 12 ER and 5 HR allowed in two road starts. Bottom line is Leake has strong home/road splits (home: 39.2 IP – 2.95 ERA, 4 HR, road: 42 IP – 5.57 ERA, 14 HR), and with two road starts, he’s a pass for me. If you own him and don’t plan on using him in your starting lineup, drop him so you aren’t tempted.
Vargas is another one we have to think about hard. But the fact his ownership is so low and folks aren’t willing to roster him has to do with how Vargas has hurt us in the past. But Vargas has actually been excellent this season. He allowed 10 runs in two starts and a relief appearance to start the season, but over his last seven starts, he’s allowed more than one run just once! Just five homers allowed over 45.1 innings and a CGSO with eight whiffs against the Giants last week. The @ NYY, v STL looks damn scary on paper, but I may be willing to roll the dice here over most of these dicey two-step options this week.
My rankings in 15-teamers for this group in terms of bids considering one-week streaming only:
- Lambert
- Vargas
- Wacha
- Junis
- Thornton
- Alcantara
- Means
(Passing on the rest)
Wouldn’t add any of them in 12-team leagues.
SCHEDULE NOTES
Teams with 7 games: ATL, CHC, PIT, STL, ARI, COL, BOS, TBR, TEX
Teams with 5 games: MLW, CIN, SFG, CLE, HOU
RENTALS
- ROCKIES – All home week hosting the Cubs for three and Padres for four. Most of your Rockies are owned, but there are some worthwhile options to consider in 15-teamers. My favorite is Mark Reynolds since the Rockies are slated to face up to 5 LHPs so we may get three-to-four starts out of Reynolds with massive power upside. Tony Wolters has been outplaying Chris Iannetta and drawing starts more frequently, but he’s owned in 85% of Main Event 15’s. Iannetta is a fair consolation prize if you’re hard-up for a C2. Garrett Hampson is back with the team but essentially just a pinch-hitter. Still believe he’ll provide fantasy value at some point, but it would take Ryan McMahon or Daniel Murphy getting hurt or Brendan Rodgers getting demoted. I own him in my Main after scooping him back up for pennies and hope to see him be productive in his few plate appearances this weekend.
- PADRES – Any Friar you could possibly want is owned, but it might be a nice streaming week for both Ian Kinsler and Josh Naylor. You can stream Austin Hedges in 12-team leagues this week to take advantage of this series as well. You can comfortably drop the likes of Yan Gomes, Danny Jansen, Roberto Perez and Tucker Barnhart for his services this week. Best yet, would love to see Luis Urias promoted ahead of the Coors series, but there are no signs of that occurring soon. Well, other than the fact he’s crushing Triple-A pitching (.368/.461/.724, 14 HR in 44 games).
- CUBS – Just a three-game series in Coors, but that still makes 2B/3B flexible David Bote and 2B/SS Addison Russell in play for 15-team leagues. Albert Almora is 83% owned in Main Event 15’s but only 27% in NFBC OC (12’s) so make sure to give him a whirl for the first-half week. If you’re in weekly leagues, the weekend gets dicey with a four-game series in Los Angeles, as they line up to face the Dodgers’ four-headed monster (Kershaw-Hill-Buehler-Ryu).
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
**under 90% owned in NFBC Main Event
Catchers – Chance Sisco (LH/BAL), Matt Wieters (SW/STL), Chris Iannetta (RH/COL)
Sisco should start against all right-handed pitchers going forward, and I do believe he’s here to stay in the Orioles’ lineup. Fellow battery mate Pedro Severino has shockingly been one of baseball’s top-hitting catchers this past month (including a three-homer day earlier in the week). But Severino is a pure lefty-crusher and should only start against them. Sisco is more than a rental in 15-teamers, though, so you have to look beyond this week. Wieters is in play for us with Yadier Molina still not cleared for baseball activities. Iannetta is a pure Coors home-week rental even though he may only get a couple starts with Wolters the preferred man behind the plate there.
Corner Infielders – Ji-Man Choi (LH/TBR), Mark Reynolds (RH/COL), Ronald Guzman (LH/TEX)
Choi is streamable this week with the Rays scheduled to face 5-of-7 righties. His ISO is down more than 80 points from last year’s mark, while his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both around league average. Do believe he’s better than this and hope he adjusts. Choi has three two-hit games in his last four and smashed a homer on Friday night. Here’s to better days. Reynolds is a one-week rental with all those LHPs scheduled; just don’t expect him to be in the lineup for all of them. We might get lucky with a couple dingers. Guzman is a power threat near the bottom of that Rangers’ lineup. They’re not at home this week, and he’ll sit at least twice in that four-game Boston series but should find his way into the lineup for the other two, as well as all three of the games in Great American against the Reds.
Middle Infielders – David Bote 2B/3B (RH/CHC), Addison Russell 2B/SS (RH/CHC), Ian Kinsler (RH/SDP), Brock Holt (LH/BOS), Eric Sogard (LH/TOR), Garrett Hampson (RH/COL)
No one here to get ultra-excited about. Just streamers and rentals. Bote’s seven-RBI game last week will put him near the top of folks’ wish list this week but remember not to overspend unless you see long-term value. If just a rental, he’s better-used in NFBC formats where you can bench him for the four-game Dodger series. Sogard has warmed up at the plate again after a brief slump, and the Jays get four-of-six righties most likely. One series is nice (@ BAL), while the other (@ HOU) leaves little to be desired. He does lead off against righties, but he’s still a single-digit bid. Hampson is someone I still can’t quit
Outfielders – Delino DeShields (RH/TEX), Tony Kemp OF/2B (LH/HOU), Teoscar Hernandez (RH/TOR), Derek Fisher (LH/HOU), Josh Naylor (LH/SDP), Carlos Gonzalez (LH/CHC), Nick Williams (LH/PHI)
Not a bad group of outfielders, but no one to change our Sunday plans for here. Adam Haseley was the man who stood to benefit from McCutchen’s unfortunate season-ending injury. The left-handed first-round pick from 2017 who comped similarly to Pence/Markakis played a couple games then was scratched Friday and is now hitting the IL with a hip flexor. You can add him a week or two ahead if you want to stash, but there’s no guarantee of the immediate future. I’d rather take a stab on Williams who at least has had a few cups of tea at the major league level.
DeShields and Kemp are two speed demons who are necessary bids for any team in need of stolen bases. SBs are one of those commodities you have to try to get while you can because neither DeShields nor Kemp is destined for full-time at-bats the rest of the season. Kemp will be relegated to the bench with Springer/Altuve/Diaz returning and with the likely promotions of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. DeShields is riding a temporary wave with Joey Gallo and Willie Calhoun sidelined. DeShields’ is hitting .385 with 3 SB over the past week and hitting first or second in the lineup (especially with Shin-Soo Choo missing a couple of games). You need to do what you have to do to get the SBs you need if you’re deficient there, just know the ride will be temporary. Blue Jays’ Hernandez is a solid power add in deep leagues. He was demoted last month and did okay in Triple-A (5 HR, 3 SB, .253 in 19 games) and is pretty much a below-average major leaguer who can occasionally pepper in some pop.
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
*Under 90% owned in NFBC 12-team leagues
Catchers – Tony Wolters (LH/COL), Austin Hedges (RH/SDP), Mike Zunino (RH/TBR)
Corner Infielders – Gio Urshela (RH/NYY), Dom Smith (LH/NYM), Miguel Cabrera (RH/DET)
Middle Infielders – Travis Shaw 2B/3B (LH/MLW), Nicky Lopez (LH/KCR), Willy Adames (RH/TBR), STASH: Andrelton Simmons (RH/LAA)
Outfielders – *Jay Bruce 1B/OF (LH/PHI), Albert Almora (RH/CHC), Bryan Reynolds (SW/PIT), Brian Anderson OF/3B (RH/MIA), Garrett Cooper (RH/MIA)
