As the offseason progresses, and the 2019 rookie class evolves, there’s a constant churn of draft prospect information. Some is good, some bad. This article will help clear the noise and get to the truth. There’s a lot of information out there, but only some of it is valuable. This article will also evolve and shift, based on personal research done through the season.
Just two weeks after I said we’d be doing “Value” and Avoid” sections, I’m going back on my word and shifting back to “Stock Up” and Stock Down.” Sometimes in life, you’re wrong, and this is one of those times. So, as a changed 29-year-old man, I’m admitting mistakes and making the adjustment.
Stock Up
N’Keal Harry (WR, Patriots) and Damien Harris (RB, Patriots) — Patriots Media coverage is always going to be loud, but the reports of Harry and Harris working in with the first team are notable. While top three round selections are usually involved early and often with the starters in some capacity, the Patriots have been known for slowly developing young players. The bigger surprise of the two is definitely Harris, as 2018 first round selection Sony Michel has been strangely absent from all Patriots offseason activities. Michel got flagged for knee issues coming out of Georgia, and if that knee is already giving him issues, this could be a huge opportunity for Harris, not only from a dynasty perspective but for 2019 as well. Harry’s year one opportunity is up to him. Considering the lack of depth in front and behind him among the Patriots receiving options, Harry truly has a chance to be second on the team in targets (behind Edelman) in 2019 if things go according to plan.
Terry McLaurin (WR, Redskins) — Teammate Paul Richardson is still not practicing, and while that was expected, this is an amazing opportunity for McLaurin to make an impact on the coaches. While a third rounder, the Redskins theoretically have quite a few pieces ahead of McLaurin that could keep him from early opportunity. While Jordan Reed, Josh Doctson and Richardson appear to be a house of cards from an injury perspective, they do start out the year all firmly in the plan for snaps and targets. With Richardson sitting out, this could be a big opportunity for McLaurin to leverage some 2019 snaps.
Marquise Brown (WR, Ravens) — A quick note on Brown from a rookie draft perspective. As rookie drafts have evolved over the last couple of weeks, an interesting trend has progressed. Brown has been slipping, and slipping, and slipping, culminating in some instances where Brown is landing in the late second or even early third round of rookie drafts. Simply put, this can’t happen if it’s your league. Brown should not be going past the early second round, and if he does, he should be pursued by FantasyGuru Subscribers! Brown isn’t a perfect prospect from a fantasy perspective, and his year one situation with a questionable passing QB in Lamar Jackson warrants legitimate skepticism, but fading WRs selected in round one is not a profitable strategy in the long term. The Ravens have big plans for Brown, and it’s very, very hard to find players with more guaranteed opportunity than him once looking past the early second round of rookie drafts.
Scott Miller (WR, Buccaneers) — As an undrafted free agent, Miller has quite the hill to climb to make the Buccaneers final roster, considering the uber-talented skill position depth chart. However, Miller has been making his presence known early in the offseason, even catching the eye of QB Jameis Winston, who complimented Miller earlier in the week. This is a positive sign for a UDFA, and while it may ultimately still lead to him having to find a different team to break through on, it’s great news nonetheless that he’s being noticed. Miller was a solid producer in college, finishing his career with 2,867 receiving yards and 23 receiving touchdowns in his four seasons at Bowling Green. Miller is on the smaller side of things (listed at 5 foot 11 and 174 pounds), but he could follow in a similar path to former Buccaneers and now Titans slot WR Adam Humphries.
Stock Down
Miles Sanders (RB, Eagles), A.J. Brown (WR, Titans) — Hamstring tweaks aren’t usually a big deal, but over the years, it’s claimed many rookie years. Both Sanders and Brown have great opportunities to produce in year one, but if these “slight” tweaks lead to multiple week absences, it could significantly hinder their chances of making an impression. While teams always have long term plans for top two round selections (both were selected in round two), many a rookie season has been limited by offseason and preseason injuries. The main reason is these are integral times for rookies to be learning the playbook and plays, and also to make an impression on teammates and coaches. Rookies falling behind now can be a huge advantage for veterans, even ones without draft pedigree. A few examples from last season would be Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones and Anthony Miller. This is much more of a 2019 issue than a long term thing, so don’t adjust for dynasty, but if setting up a best ball or doing an early season-long draft, limiting exposure would be a good idea (for now).
