Let’s play a game. I’m going to list the names of the arms in today’s piece, but without any context. Some of the names listed are moving on up (Jefferson style). Some of the names listed are heading toward the basement. Wonder which group the names belong to? Just keep on reading: Tanaka, Turnbull, Vargas, Arrieta, Castillo, Paxton, Syndergaard, Thornton, Paddock, E-Rod, Duplantier, Peacock, Canning, Bundy and Alcantara. Oh, and Dallas Keuchel to the Braves.
GOING UP
Sandy Alcantara has lowered his ERA down to 3.80 for the Marlins over 12 starts. He’s been particularly sharp of late allowing 0/1 runs in 3-of-4 outings. He’s been particularly effective at home with a .269 wOBA, though his work on the road has been moderate at best (.349 wOBA). He also has an 11.3 swinging strike rate which strongly suggests that his current 5.83 K/9 rate will increase. That said, he has still walked more than four batters per nine, though in 4-of-5 outings he’s walks one or two batters.
Dylan Bundy has been uneven this season. There, I said it. Follow me here though. Over the last month plus he’s actually been… wait for it… solid. Over his last six starts Bundy has allowed three or fewer runs each time out on his way to a 3.03 ERA. He’s also walked four batters his last three outings leading to a 2.52 BB/9 rate in the six outings, though he’s still permitted five homers leading to a 1.26 HR/9 rate. Look, he’s never going to eliminate the homer from his game, but if he’s able to maintain that rate the rest of the way, he’s going to be a mixed league option on the bump.
Griffin Canning has made seven starts for the Angels. He’s gone 2-2. However, he’s actually pitched pretty well with a 3.52 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, a 2.35 BB/9 rate and an impressive 9.86 K/9. He’s yet to allow more than four runs in an outing, and in 3-of-4 trips to the bump he’s allowed 0/1 runs. The club continues to be very cautious with the workload of the 23 year old holding him at 95 or fewer pitches in 5-of-7 outings as he’s also thrown 101 and 102 pitches in the other two outings. A complaint? I’d say the 47 percent fly ball rate, a high number, which has led to a very high 1.64 HR/9 rate which has the potential to endanger his campaign if he doesn’t improve it.
Jon Duplantier has a great arm, but he’s been up and down this season, from the minors to the majors, and he’s also been used as a starter and out of the bullpen. In seven big-league outings he’s yet to throw 80-pitches, and the last two seasons he’s thrown 136 and 74 innings. Hard to envision him being able to throw more than about 125 innings, top end, and his role continues to be uncertain, but it’s a nice arm.
Brad Peacock’s last six outings include six outings of two earned runs or fewer allowed. In the six outings he’s permitted a total of five runs as he’s rocking a 1.32 ERA in that time. He’s also punched out 10.85 batters per nine in that time. Rocking the Casbah.
Cal Quantrill has allowed five runs his last two starts as he’s walked two batters and struck out 16 over 11 innings. He’s more of a backend option in mixed leagues, but he’s looking pretty solid in 4-of-5 outings this season.
Eduardo Rodriguez as moving up — well, I guess. I mean, he’s allowed three runs his last two starts which is hugely improved on the 11 runs he allowed the previous two outings. Look, he is what he is. There’s not much more I can say. He gets strikeouts, but he’s frequently hurt and rarely much of a help in the ratio categories.
Masahiro Tanaka has made 13 starts with a 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He’s just a solid arm, one that doesn’t beat himself with the walk (2.24 per nine) but one who does allow too many homers (1.30 per nine). Hasn’t mattered much where he’s pitched either as he’s pretty much been the same guy everywhere (.309 wOBA at home and .301 wOBA on the road).
Spencer Turnbull has been someone we’ve all turned to in order to keep our squads afloat, and through 13 outings he’s done exactly that (3.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.54 K/9 and a 2.52 K/BB ratio). Nothing in his line really stands out, in a positive or negative way. That said, his overall skill set simply doesn’t support that ERA, though solid innings should still be doable. He’s really not “going down” so I couldn’t put him in the bottom section, but he really doesn’t belong in this one either. On mass, he’d be more of going down if I had to predict his rest of the season effort.
Jason Vargas tossed an improbable complete game shutout in his last outing. That said, it was against the Giants and the G-men’s offense is, in one word, pathetic. However, if you missed it, and I totally forgive you if you have, Vargas has been rolling for a long while. Over his last seven outings Vargas has allowed a total of eight runs. Not a mistype either. Over seven outings Vargas has a 1.85 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. You’re playing with a bit of fire if you turn to him though given a 3.46 BB/9 rate and 2.27 K/BB rate. He doesn’t miss enough bats to be a long-term play, but he’s in such a groove right now, and likely still on your waiver-wire, that he might just be worth a look. Just don’t be surprised when he turns into a pumpkin.
GOING DOWN
Jake Arrieta has not looked sharp, at all, his last two outings. On the road versus the Padres and Dodgers, Arrieta has allowed 10 runs over 9.2 frames as he’s struck out just six batters while walking six. He’s been terrible off the last two outings, and truth be told, he hasn’t had much luck against lefties at any point this season as they have battered him (.301/390/.556). He’s also been far from impressive on the road where he has allowed a .297/.354/.527 slash line. That’s two instances that should cause you some serious pause right now with the righty. At least he’s been at his most effective with men in scoring position (.260 wOBA) as the mark is .375 with the bases empty.
Luis Castillo has been dynamic. At the same time, and I hate to be that guy (I really don’t), there is a serious concern to address. Castillo walked 2.60 batters per nine last season, but the mark has skyrocketed this season all the way up to 4.28 per nine. That’s a terrible mark that is one of the 10 worst in baseball. The seven men with worst rates all have higher ERA’s, with the lowest ERA in the group being 3.28. Meanwhile, Castillo has a 2.38 mark. Something’s gotta give here. Either Luis cuts the walks down, or that ERA is going way up (SIERA 3.93 and xFIP 3.47). Amazingly, he’s having all that success despite giving up 10 percentage points in the first pitch strike column as he’s called from a slightly above average mark of 61.4 percent last season all the way down to a flat-out pathetic 51.0 percent mark this year. That’s really, really bad folks.
Is this Rocket from Guardians of the Galaxy fame?
Chris Paddack was the toast of the town… then the last two outings happened. Paddack has allowed 10 runs, nine earned, his last 9.1 innings cause his ERA to move from 1.93 to 2.97 in just two starts. He’s not walking anyone, just one free pass in three games, but the homers are coming. Paddack has allowed five homers his last two starts, and in 3-of-4 outings he’s allowed two big flies, a run that has pushed his homer per nine rate up to 1.34. As great as he has been, there’s a danger in being basically a two-pitch pitcher. Paddack throws his fastball 59 percent of the time and his change up 31 percent of the time with the curveball making up the difference. He’s given up a .572 OPS and three homers on the change, but guys are starting to catch up with the fastball (six homers). Only two pitches makes it easier for batters to “sit” on a pitch, especially when he’s behind in the count. So, in addition to the concerns about the innings, we’ve now got performance woes leaking in.
James Paxton has made three starts since the start of May. He’s thrown three, four and 4.2 innings. In those three outings he’s been limited to 64, 66 and 83 pitches. Still, I’m most concerned about the continual drop in his GB/FB ratio which is down for a third straight year, this time to a number (0.67) that is half his career mark (1.36).
Noah Syndergaard… have you changed your opinion yet? We are 13 starts in to his 2019 campaign and he has an 8.89 K/9 rate, a career worst. He has an 11.7 swinging strike rate, a career worst. He has a 1.27 WHIP, a career worst He has a 1.40 GB/FB ratio, well off his 1.68 career number. He’s the owner of a 1.10 HR/9 rate, way above his 0.73 career rate. His slider is coming in at 88.4 mph which is 2.6 mph below his career mark. He has a 79.9 mph mark on his curveball, 1.7 mph below his career mark. If you aren’t concerned about all of that, I can’t help you.
Trent Thornton has an impressive 69 strikeouts in 6.2 innings. Alas, the Jays’ rookie has also walked an unacceptable 4.31 batters per nine, and the HR/9 rate sits at 1.53. Lefties have torched him for a .508 SLG, and his work at home hasn’t even been moderately acceptable (.272/.348/.528). Caution.
BRAVES SIGN DALLAS KEUCHEL
Dallas Keuchel lost money by waiting for a bigger deal as he turned down a $17.9 million qualifying offer before eventually signing for $13 million on a one year deal with the Braves.
Keuchel threw 204 innings last season with a 3.74 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, decidedly blah numbers when you add in the 6.73 K/9 rate which was a four-year low. Without the ability to miss bats, he’s largely dependent on the ground ball, and his defense (the Braves defense on the left side is strong with Donaldson and Swanson, and that should help DK). That said, DK did post his worst GB/FB ratio in six years last season at 2.20, and that 53.7 percent ground ball rate was also a six year worst. Both numbers impress overall, but both numbers were down for DK, and that’s concerning. Add in that he’s missed more than two months of the 2019 season, and there has to be concern.
Who is Keuchel likely to do the rest of the way? He’s not gonna be a top-50 SP in the fantasy game the ROTW, one would think, but he’s a decent add hoping to be a top-75 SP the rest of the way IMO. Basically he’s not a streaming option, but more of a rounding out the rotation type of arm in mixed leagues.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
