What’s up my Fantasy Guru fam! It is Thursday morning, I have my Cuban coffee in hand, and I am ready to roll. If you have not tried Cuban coffee before, my only advice is tread lightly as a single shot will really get you going, no joke. Now that we are all aware of how strong Cuban coffee is, we can get right to it.
Over the last two seasons, we have seen a change in trend when it comes to drafting, as running backs are once again going off the board quickly in the first and second round of fantasy drafts according to ADP. In 2017, roughly 11 running backs were selected in the first 24 picks. In 2018, that number increased to 15. So far in 2019, ADP suggests that 14 running backs will be taken in the first two rounds. The eye-popping thing for me here is that in 2017, an average of six to seven running backs were taken in the first round, compared to nine in 2018 and 10 in 2019. While it is still early and these numbers could certainly change, it is pretty clear that people drafting are more bullish on running backs this year than they were a couple of years ago.
When looking at the position as a whole, you can argue that it is deeper than it has been in years past. That said, there are some big uncertainties with some of the running backs ranked inside most people’s top 12. Which is why there are a handful of running backs that are currently being drafted in the first couple of rounds that I have my concerns about and will be considering taking a receiver over some of them early in my drafts. Not to mention, there are other running backs that you can get outside the first two rounds that offer plenty of upside, and come at a cheaper cost, so you are essentially risking less. Here are the backs I feel fully comfortable with taking in the first round – Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and David Johnson. Another back that I feel strongly about, especially for the first half of the season is Nick Chubb. In fact, I am having a constant battle with myself between him and David Johnson at fifth overall. The only concern I have with Chubb is that the team signed Kareem Hunt who will play in the second half of the season, and that could eventually limit Chubb’s ceiling. Then there is Melvin Gordon who, I for some reason, I never roster. I mean, for goodness sake, before last year he never averaged over four yards per carry in any season, yet managed to be a top 10 back in 2016, 2017, and 2018. Chances are he will not land on many of my rosters because it is difficult for me to ignore his production on a per touch basis throughout his career, but the argument can certainly be made to take him with a top 10 pick. With that said, let’s jump into some of these backs being taken early that come with some risk.
BACKS WITH RED FLAGS
Le’Veon Bell, Jets
A former first overall pick in fantasy drafts, Bell finds himself on a new team, with a new offense, and new coaches. It was not a pretty ending in Pittsburgh for him, he sat out the entire 2018 season after not getting the pay day he felt that he deserved and refused to sign his franchise tender. There is no denying his talent. I mean, if you watch Bell run, you clearly saw how patient of a runner he is, how he waits for the hole to open, and then boom, he quickly bursts right through it. In addition, he has phenomenal hands for a running back, coming down with at least 75 catches in three of his last four years. The one year he didn’t accomplish that feat during that span, he played just six games. So why am I concerned about such a talented back? Well, for a couple of reasons. The top reason is the fact that Adam Gase, the new head coach for the Jets, publicly said that he was against the signing of Bell, and we saw how he handled the running back situation in Miami – poorly. Second, Bell no longer has a stout offensive line to run behind of. The Jets finished last season as one of the worst offensive lines in the league and although they added Kelechi Osemele who should help out this unit, they are still nowhere near the line that Bell ran behind of in Pittsburgh. Lastly, last season the Dolphins were 25th among 32 teams in rushing plays per game, an Adam Gase offense. In fact, in his three-year tenure as a head coach in Miami, the Dolphins finished 19th, 32nd, and 25th in rush attempts per game. Granted, personnel and game flow could certainly have something to do with it, but it is still something that is hard to overlook. For what it is worth, it would not surprise me to see Bell be productive this season, and his ceiling remains high, but unlike in past years where he was a surefire pick with little to no red flags, this year there are some more risks involved with him.
James Conner, Steelers
Conner turned in a very strong season last year, finishing sixth in fantasy points and seventh in fantasy points per game among running backs. He also ran for 973 yards (tied 11th most), caught 55 passes (tied 12th most), had 497 receiving yards (9th most), and rushed for 12 touchdowns (tied 3rd most). Those kind of numbers are certainly going to raise his stock, hence his current first round ADP and a top 10 pick in many instances. You also cannot deny he is running behind a strong offensive line and he has good hands. Even though there is plenty to like about Conner this season, it is not all positive. For starters, Steelers GM Kevin Colbert suggested that the team could use James Conner, Jaylen Samuels and fourth-round rookie Benny Snell in a committee this year, according to a report on NFL.com. This is the GM, so it should only be taken with a grain of salt, however, it is definitely something that should not go unnoticed. Samuels did prove the he is a very capable back last season and became more involved in the passing game towards the end of the year. In addition, with Antonio Brown out of the picture, opposing defenses do not have to worry about two stud wide outs to defend, which could allow them to focus more on containing the run game. Lastly, Conner has struggled to stay healthy in the past, which can be concerning. To be honest, out of all the backs on this list, Conner is the one I am most optimistic about and think that he comes with the least amount of risk. And as you can see there are more positives than negatives here.
Todd Gurley, Rams
Considering the way the season ended for Gurley last year and the recent negative news surrounding him, chances are his ADP will start taking a hit. At the time of this article, he is still being drafted late in first rounds or early second, but it would not be shocking if he fell to the third round at the time you start drafting for your fantasy league, closer to September. If you are unaware of the news I’m talking about, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com recently reported that Gurley’s days as a “straight-up, every-down bell cow are probably over.” The Rams drafted running back Darrell Henderson in this year’s draft, someone they are pretty excited about and Malcolm Brown is also in the picture, both of which could have a solid role in this offense. Then if you look at his numbers towards the end of the season and in the post season for Gurley last year, they were not pretty. Taking all of this into consideration, it really becomes difficult to argue whether exhausting a first round pick on Gurley is wise. Trust me, I am fully aware of the ceiling he offers and even though he did not close out the season strong, he still managed to score 21 touchdowns. That said, it was not until later in the season where he started to see fewer touches and the production then says it all. From Week 9 until the end of the regular season, Gurley topped 68 rushing yards just twice in six games and topped 13 rushing attempts two times during that span as well. If his touches take a hit this season, it’s very likely that his production will do so as well. Not to mention, his chronic knee issues is something that is very concerning as well, which could lead to durability issues. Lastly, the workloads he has had in recent years appears to be catching up. I am a big fan of Gurley and I was extremely high on him when he broke out in 2017, but this season I have my concerns due to some of the red flags that surround him.
Damien Williams, Chiefs
I am in the minority here based on conversations I have had with others, things I have seen on Twitter, and where Williams is ranked in a lot of places. His ADP is currently mid-second round, which is a bit too rich for my liking. Granted, last season after the Week 12 bye for the Chiefs, Williams did a phenomenal job as the team’s lead back, scoring 10 touchdowns in his last seven games (includes post season), while also catching at least at least four passes in all but two of those games. He also topped 100 total yards three times in that span and came four yards short of doing it one other time. So far reports suggest that this is his job to lose and after a performance like he had towards the end of last year, it is not surprising. That said, it is hard to envision Williams as an every down back. He has played 74 career regular season games in the NFL and not once has he exceeded 13 carries in a single game, while rushing 10 or more times five times in that span. He did receive 25 carries in the post season last year, but it is unlikely that we will see that too often, if at all again. What does keep Williams’ floor pretty high is his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. There is no denying that since he has caught 78 percent of his passes during the regular season throughout his career. With all that being said, the Chiefs added Carlos Hyde this offseason and drafted Darwin Thompson, so it would not be surprising to see them have a role this season. While there is certainly plenty of upside with Williams, there are other backs available after him that offer as much upside and are a bit safer, making it pretty easy for me to skip on him at his current ADP.
I am not expecting all of the running backs above to be complete duds by any means, however, I do have some skepticism which is why I might elect to choose some of the high-end receivers over these guys. There are some backs such as Marlon Mack, Josh Jacobs, Devonta Freeman, Derrick Henry, and/or Kerryon Johnson who are being drafted a round or two later than some of the backs above that I feel could turn in a really strong season as well and offer just as much upside. Therefore, I am ok with not risking a top pick on a running back that carries a ton of risk, when I can get one later.
That’s it for this week’s Mind of Marsal. If there is something you all would like for me to delve into in this series, feel free to make suggestions. You can reach out on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal. Until next week!
