With more than two months of baseball in the rearview mirror, it’s time to start culling the herd. Who do you own that should be let go? Is there someone on waivers that should be added? There’s no way for us to know who is on a roster or not in your setup, so we’ve taken the following approach in this piece. We will list five players to buy, and five players to sell. Even if you don’t own these players, this article should be instructive pointing you to players to potential roster, as well as those fellas you should be avoiding.
*Based on 50 batted ball events (BBE) unless otherwise noted.
BUY ME
Jose Abreu is almost certain to be traded. That could help his outlook or harm it, but one would think it would help. I know he’s hitting a career worst .254. I know he has a career worst 0.25 BB/K ratio. I know he has a career worst .302 OBP. Still, this guy is a really productive player who is on pace to challenge his career best of 36 homers and he’s well on his way to a 5th 100 RBI season in six years in the big leagues. He’s also 14th in baseball in hard-hit ball rate, a career best mark of 52.0 percent, and his 92.2 mph exit velocity mark is also a career best. There is no reason not to buy.
Khris Davis has been beat up, and he tried to play through his injury in an extremely ineffective manner before hitting the DL. I get the sense out there that folks are starting to move on from Davis, and that I just don’t understand. In each of the last three seasons this man has hit 40 homers with 100 RBI. He is the only man in baseball to have done that. Yes, he has two homers since April 14th. Injury or not, that’s just stupid low. A few positive points. Davis is hitting .247 with a .316 OBP right now and his career marks are .248 and .320. Davis has a 0.34 BB/K ratio this year, and his career mark is 0.32. Davis has a 41.4 percent fly ball rate (career 42.1). Davis has a 22.6 percent HR/FB ratio which is just a point below his career mark and 1.5 below his rate last season. Davis has a 14.1 percent launch angle, half a percentage point below his career rate. There’s a lot here that still looks an awful lot like Khris Davis.
Ian Desmond has a total of zero steals as he’s dealt with lower body issues. This is pretty shocking given that he’s routinely swiping 20 bases including last season. He’s also hitting .240 on the season and folks have seemingly moved on from him. That’s a mistake. Not only is Desmond eligible at first base and the outfield, and that never hurts, he’s actually hitting pretty darn well (not that anyone noticed). Over his last 18 games he’s hitting .291/.371/.545 for a .916 OPS. That’s some really impressive work, is it not? Meanwhile, Raimel Tapia has pretty much gone in the other direction the last 18 games with a .221/.268/.286 line leading to a pathetic .554 OPS. He’s maintained his value by somehow still scoring 14 times despite never getting on base, but it’s not lost on this observer, and shouldn’t be on you either, that Desmond has been much better than Tapia of late.
Elias Diaz hit .286 last season with 10 homers in 252 at-bats for the Pirates as he shared work behind the dish with Francisco Cervelli. On the shelf with at least his sixth concussion, there is some concern with the long-term health of Cervelli. As a result, the team is going to take a very measured approach to his return to action. That has allowed Diaz to grab the lion’s share of at-bats lately at the catcher’s spot, and lookie here, he’s hitting .298 in 104 at-bats. The power from last season hasn’t carried over with a single homer, but he’s hit .289 since the start of last season, and amongst the 36 catchers with at least 350 plate appearances in that time there is only once man with a higher average (Wilson Ramos at .298). Diaz is also 13th at the spot with a .334 OBP. Sign him up if you need some help at the catcher’s spot.
Josh Donaldson is a name I’ve been asked about dropping by some folks. I really don’t get that. Donaldson is 12th in baseball in average exit velocity and he’s 26th in hard-hit ball rate. I know he hasn’t been at MVP levels by any means, but the batted ball data is fine, he has a .364 OBP and his .800 OPS is better than Manny Machado, Matt Carpenter, Jose Ramirez… and he still hasn’t gotten hot yet.
SELL ME
Jose Iglesias has been a godsend for the Reds. He’s stepped in to help up the middle with the injury to Scooter Gennett, and for a while there he was one of the few Reds hitting the baseball. He’s still hitting .294 on the year, but the batted ball data doesn’t shine (27th from the bottom in exit velocity and 323rd in hard-hit rate) and the former 15-steal guy from last season is nowhere to be seen as he’s stolen one base.
There was hope with Nicky Lopez when he was called up. A good approach, a spot in the daily lineup with the Royals, and the ability to steal a base. Well, he’s been dropped to the bottom third of the order, has one steal, a .270 OBP and he has the second lowest percentage of hard hit baseballs in the entire game behind his teammate Billy Hamilton at 14.7 percent (Hamilton can be dropped as well, unless you’re in a deep league or desperate for steals as he has an amazingly putrid 7.1 percent hard-hit rate). There isn’t anything to like at the moment in mixed leagues.
Brandon Lowe has had a strong season to date with a .272-11-36-28 line over 54 games with the Rays. However, the strikeouts are starting to weigh him down. Lowe has a horrible 35.0 percent K-rate leading him to a pathetic 0.19 BB/K. He’s not taking walks, and not making enough contact, and that has led his OBP to drop to .327. He also has one homer in 14 games despite still owning a 22 percent HR/FB ratio that he’s likely to not sustain. Lifting the ball as much as he is – that 17.3 percent launch angle is getting up there – it’s certainly possible that he hits 25 homers this season but it’s also highly unlikely that he will be able to sustain that .272 batting average (his expected AVG is .233). He’s putting a wallop on the pelota when he hits it, but he’s just not making enough contact.
Jeff McNeil is batting .345 with a .423 OBP and a .892 OPS. He’s also third in baseball with a .386 BABIP (min. 200 plate appearances). He posted a mark of .359 last season so he’s at .370 through 449 plate appearances. Sorry, but no one does that consistently. Since the start of last season here are the MLB leaders amongst players with 500 plate appearances: Jorge Alfaro .398, Aaron Judge .369, Domingo Santana .364, Javier Baez .361 and Scooter Gennett .358. If we take things back to the start of the 2017 season (min. 1,000 PAs) here are the leaders: Domingo Santana .363, Aaron Judge .363, Javier Baez .355, Tommy Pham .351 and Jose Martinez .351. What do all those men have? They either have significant power and/or they run really fast. McNeil has neither with five homers and seven steals in his career (none this season in four attempts). McNeil is also 135th in baseball in average exit velocity and 161st in hard-hit percentage this season. So, he has little power, not much speed, and he’s barely better than average in two highly significant batted ball categories. The BABIP is coming down folks, likely a lot. Remember, it takes 800+ plate appearances for BABIP to start to normalize.
Tony Walters hit well for a while. Did you buy in as a second catcher? Very little pop does he have, a .337 SLG for his career, and though he’s hitting .298 on the season there are some troubling signs. He has an 84.1 mph exit velocity and a 20.2 percent hard-hit ball rate. The hard-hit rate is the 11th worst in baseball while the exit velo is 19th worst. You’re hoping to tread water from here on with him.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
