Welcome to the inaugural installment of the #FridayFantasyFocus!
Each week I plan on zooming in on a particular player that has caught my interest for any number of reasons. Perhaps they’ve seen a sharp spike in ADP. Maybe they’re entering a new offensive system? Or possibly they’re just a player I’m eager to learn more about.
I’ll approach this from a holistic view to start — looking at the team’s 2019 outlook, what changes they’ve made this offseason, team tendencies, etc. Then zoom in a bit on projected volume, role that the player will have in the offense, and finally, current ADP. The goal here is after reading this column, you’ll feel comfortable drafting or fading at current cost because of the reasons laid out before you.
This week’s #FFF is a player that I’ve been very excited to draft in bestball leagues so far this offseason. Playing in one of the league’s more exciting offenses, Curtis Samuel is the lucky recipient of the #FFF debut.
2019 Carolina Panthers
Norv Turner enters his second season calling plays for Carolina. Last year’s offense finished slightly better than average, but the squad still ended up losing seven of their final eight games. They missed the playoffs for just the second time in the past six years. Let’s see how the offense performed compared to the league in several rudimentary areas.
|
|
Pass Yds |
Pass TDs |
Rush Yds |
Rush TDs |
Points Scored |
|
CAR |
3,836 |
28 |
2,136 |
17 |
376 |
|
Rank |
16th |
14th |
4th |
6th |
14th |
The Panthers were one of the most well-balanced teams last year in terms of run to pass. They ranked 16th in pass play percentage (58.9%), but they operated at one of the slower paces in neutral gamescript situations (26th in seconds per play). Using historic figures from last year can help us pencil in what type of volume we can expect from the passing game heading into this year. Future outlook leaves the Panthers as an offense that should continue their balanced attack, wearing defenses down over the course of the game.
The offense did make some significant changes to the offensive line, most notably adding longtime Denver Broncos center, Matt Paradis (PFF’s No. 2 graded center last year). If you had to replace an offensive line anchor like Ryan Kalil (retirement), you could do a lot worse than Paradis. They also re-signed offensive tackle Daryl Williams to a one-year deal. Add in second-round pick, Greg Little (No. 37 overall), and we suddenly have a completely revamped offensive line. There’s still some shuffling to be had along the line (Williams could move inside to LG), but this offensive line could be a bright spot for Carolina if they can keep healthy.
Carolina didn’t invest heavily skill-position wise, but on the defensive side, the unit is transitioning into a 3-4 defense. Such shifts in philosophy mean we typically see a significant number of roster changes, and Carolina was no exception. Not only did they sign edge rusher Bruce Irvin (43.5 career sacks), they also spent their first-round pick on another rusher in Brian Burns (No. 16 overall). More recently, they added defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to make a terrific trio of tackles in McCoy, Kawann Short, and Dontari Poe. These defensive additions could lead to more pressures and potential turnovers, putting the offense in great field position next year.
Curtis Samuel’s 2019 Role
Last year, Samuel caught 39-of-65 targets for 494 yards and five touchdowns. He was also an adept rusher with the ball in his hands scoring twice on limited carries. Scheming Samuel to operate in space on misdirection worked very well last year and should be something Carolina tries to build on this season.
The departure of Devin Funchess and his 16% target share opens this offense quite a bit. Funchess leaves behind 78 targets in addition to more than 1,000 Air Yards. Samuel was used more often downfield than teammate D.J. Moore, sporting a higher average depth of target (11.9 to 9.8). It stands to reason Samuel should inherit a decent amount of those vacated downfield targets. Funchess also leaves behind 12 red zone targets, most among all Panther wideouts last year. Only Christian McCaffrey had more (16).
With Funchess in Indianapolis, Samuel slides into the No. 2 receiver role across from Moore. Both will inherit some of the leftover targets from Funchess, but remember, this isn’t a very large passing pie to be dished out. The offense ranked just 15th in pass attempts last season and Cam Newton is always a threat to change the play depending on the defense and pick up yardage on the ground instead of throwing.
From a technical perspective, Samuel exceled with his route running per wide receiver guru, Matt Harmon. Harmon showed Samuel as a successful route runner against man coverage, press coverage, and that Samuel posting a high contested catch rate. Samuel has the explosion and athleticism (4.31 speed) to turn any touch he receives into a touchdown. That jives well with Harmon’s tracking of Samuel’s success on routes like the screen, flat, post, and comeback. While the raw target-to-catch ratio isn’t spectacular (60% last year), it’s not like Samuel’s catching balls from Peyton Manning. He’s on the receiving end from a quarterback who’s made his money due to his rushing ability over pinpoint accuracy.
While he’s flashed with his route running, the largest problem looming for Samuel entering 2019 is the lack of volume. ESPN projects Samuel for 80 targets. PFF projects him for 82.1. Between Moore, McCaffrey, Samuel, and Greg Olsen, the Panthers offense is loaded with playmakers despite not being pass-heavy in nature. Yes, there’s reasons to be high on the Panthers offense as a whole, but Samuel should remain an inconsistent fantasy option due to inconsistent volume. He has just two games with double-digit targets over the course of 22 career games.
Average Draft Position
I get the excitement surrounding Samuel. I truly do. I’m just as excited to see him excel, but I’ll be treading cautiously when we start getting into typical redraft leagues (not bestball). Receivers that hover around the 80-target mark typically have a ceiling as a WR3. I think best case scenario for Samuel is he repeats Moore’s statistical line from 2018 — 76 targets, 54 receptions, 781 receiving yards, and a pair of touchdowns. Moore finished as the fantasy WR36 in full PPR leagues last year. The touchdown rate could certainly spike given what we’ve seen from Samuel, but best outcome is that he finds himself as a high-end fantasy WR3 candidate.
However, given the lack of consistent volume he’ll receive, I think Samuel is a player better served for bestball leagues. Given the natural variance of touchdown scoring and what should be random target spikes, Samuel makes a lot more sense as a bestball player to target where you only use his high-scoring weeks. On limited volume last year in 13 games, Samuel had three top-20 PPR weeks.
Samuel is currently being selected as the WR47 in DRAFT bestball leagues (half-PPR) and the WR44 in Bestball10’s (full-PPR). I’m continuing to buy here at low WR4 costs given what Samuel can bring to the table in a given week with his rushing and receiving potential. Norv Turner is planning on making the No. 1 receiver a thing of the past, rotating his receiver usage based on matchups. That makes Samuel an ideal bestball candidate and I’ll continue to buy until we see him creep into WR3 range.
In terms of dynasty, Samuel is an absolute buy for me. If this offense were to dial back the rushing attempts and increase their pace, we could be in for a smorgasbord of fantasy goodness.
Photo courtesy of DynastyLeagueFootball.com
Samuel remains a decent bit below Moore currently in terms of dynasty value. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Samuel close that gap over the course of the 2019 season. If we were to see D.J. Moore miss any time, Samuel could be a plug-and-play WR2 where we could finally see the combination of his-end efficiency coupled with significant target volume come to fruition.
Samuel remains the deeper threat option of the two, with Moore primarily operating as underneath receiver. If Samuel starts to see more deep shots thrown his way — Newton ranked 26th in most pass attempts of 20-plus yards last season — it could be wheels up for this offense. Newton’s shoulder injury last year undoubtedly played a part in his lack of deep attempts, but all signs are positive that his recovery schedule is right on track.
Keep buying Samuel at current costs in bestball leagues. He’s still a tremendous value at WR4 and someone worth buying until he gets near WR3 costs. I’d also try to find a way to acquire Samuel on your dynasty rosters. There aren’t many players athletic enough to pull off double-reverse and misdirection plays with regularity. He remains an injury away from seeing enough volume for him to ascend to the next tier of fantasy wideouts.
