Let’s talk arms. Bassitt is slumping. Hill is allowing a ton of homers. Gonzales has hit the skids. Kelly hasn’t performed as well as expected. Lauer has been solid. Have you noticed? Lester is posting some really similar numbers to last season. Lyles is struggling. Who could have predicted that? Martin has been demoted by the Astros. Nola righted the ship, until he didn’t. Odorizzi has been flat out stupendous. Pivetta is rounding into form. Richards and that changeup are in a solid groove. Sabathia has a warning sign flashing above his name. Who is Adrian Sampson? When will Severino return? Is Yarbrough rosterable? Finally, what to make of Alex Reyes?
Chris Bassitt is starting to turn into a pumpkin. Over his last three outings the numbers don’t look very good; 6.75 K/9, 4.37 BB/9, 5.81 xFIP. There’s still plenty of time to deal him away to an unsuspecting league mate. Play up the overall numbers and deal away.
Marco Gonzales was a pitcher everyone loved when he went 4-0 to start the season. Now everyone hates him. That’s what happens when you allow 18 runs (two unearned) in back-to-back outings. The 6.3 K/9 rate is troubling. However, the 59.6 left on base percentage is stupid low and will rebound. The biggest issue though might be the drop in the GB/FB from 1.49 last season to 0.99 this season. He doesn’t have the stuff to be successful at his current level. The number needs to go back up if he hopes to return to being a useful mixed league option. So much for that predicted breakout.
Rich Hill has made seven starts, and he’s been dominant. His 5.11 K/BB ratio would be a career best, and that 1.05 WHIP is stellar. Still, and you knew it was coming didn’t you, the last time he threw 140-innings in a season was 2007. Yes 2-0-0-7. He’s also become decidedly homer prone of late. Last season he posted a 1.36 homer rate per nine, a decade high, and the number has gone up even higher this season to 1.58. This year’s number is an oddity though as it’s completely driven by the HR/FB ratio (his 51 percent ground ball rate is 13 points above his career mark). Hill has never had a mark above 14.7, least year, and this season the mark is 21.2 percent.
Merrill Kelly came to the bigs this season with a bit of hype as he returned from Japan. Through 12 starts this season he’s been – average at best. Kelly has a 4.41 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7.35 K/9 and 1.34 HR/9. OK, he’s been worse than average, let’s call it below average. His last time out he has his best start in over a month with 10 strikeouts and one run allowed over 7.2 frames against the Mets, but that’s still not enough to get excited about. He’s been particularly dreadful on the road with a 7.14 ERA and .393 wOBA against. Against righties on the road, the wOBA in an unearthly .441.
Eric Lauer allowed eight runs on May 10th against the Rockies in Colorado. If he was on any rosters heading into that outing, he certainly wasn’t on rosters after it. That effort, and a rather boring career, has likely led to his recent performance going unnoticed in most circles. If you’re looking for a streaming option, you might have found your man here. Lauer has allowed a single earned run in each of his last four outings. In those four trips to the hill he’s walked a total of three batters against 17 strikeouts. Yeah, 17 Ks in 24 innings isn’t exciting at all, but he really is pitching well. In fact, in 7-of-8 outings he’s allowed two earned runs or less. Take a look on waivers if you need a streamer.
Cats do know their names.
Jon Lester allowed one runs over seven innings last time out. That said, he’s been spotty in 3-of-4 outings as he allowed 19 runs the previous three outings covering just 14 innings. Overall, he has a 3.32 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP. You know what his numbers were last year? Try on for size a 3.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. #LifeComesFullCircle
Jordan Lyles – you were warned about. I suggested moving on his Player Profile. Jeff Mans suggested moving on about 15 times on his radio show (2-4 PM EST, Monday through Friday on Sirius 210, XM 87). Over his last three outings he’s been blitzed to the tune of a 7.47 ERA as he’s allowed 13 runs over 15.2 innings. Get out while you still can. Trade him to someone who believes it’s merely a hiccup.
Ninja Gorilla is a thing.
Corbin Martin was demoted Tuesday. His stuff was decent, but the numbers in his five outings were simply brutal; 5.59 BB/9, 1.58 K/BB, 3.72 HR/9, 1.81 WHIP. We could see him later in the year, but it might be out of the pen.
Aaron Nola had allowed one unearned run in 5-of-7 outings, and folks that drafted him finally breathed a sigh of relief. Welp. The last time out he was beaten for six runs by the Padres pushing his ERA back up to 4.63. It is a bit troubling as well that he’s walked 10 batters the last three outings to push his BB/9 rate up to 3.99. The first pitch strike rate still sits slightly under 58 percent and just 39.8 percent of his pitches have been in the strike zone. Obvious what he needs to work on.
Jake Odorizzi is on one of the rolls of the decade. He has allowed three runs in seven outings. That’s six times in seven trips to the mound that he hasn’t allowed a run. He is 6-0 with a 10.15 K/9 and 0.65 ERA in that time. Just absurd. His usually terrible GB/FB ratio is at a career worst (0.54). The homers are coming, and it will be a rude awakening if you’ve bene riding him to this point (5.3 HR/FB ratio this year compared to 10.3 for his career).
Nick Pivetta has made two starts since being recalled. He allowed three runs to the Cardinals and none to the Dodgers on the road. He’s also allowed just two walks and struck out 15 over the 11 innings. He’s allowed a whopping seven homers in six starts, but there’s still plenty to like here. This is the pitcher that we drafted. If he’s on waivers… he shouldn’t be.
Projectile poop. Nice.
Alex Reyes has been stretched out as a starter, and he’s going to make one more minor league start before the Cardinals have to make a decision. To date, Reyes has been all over the map. He allowed two runs over two starts heading into his last outing, before being beaten down for seven runs his last turn. That’s a 1.44 WHIP ad pathetic 1.60 K/BB ratio over 24.1 innings. The velocity is there, but the performance has not been. Reyes could easily be starting for the Cardinals next week, but I also see potential move to the bullpen as well. If Reyes is out there on waivers, add him now. He’s tremendously talented, even if he’s a complete enigma at this time.
Trevor Richards is rolling right now. He’s allowed two runs over three outings. He’s only walked four batters, and that’s the real key. He needs to get ahead in the count, and get batters to expand the zone. When he doesn’t, he is forced to nibble, and that leads to walks (4.07 per nine) and homers (1.36 per nine).
CC Sabathia has a 3.61 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. That seems to render him as a usable piece. That’s fair cause he is. At the same time, he’s really playing with fire right now. Take a look at the 2.47 homer per nine rate which is absurd. In 4-of-5 outings CC has allowed two homers. That’s scary bad. It’s also notable that, after posting a ground ball rate of at least 44.4 percent in 12-of-13 years, that the mark is a career worst 37.2 right now leading to a career worst 0.78 GB/FB ratio. He just doesn’t have the movement or velocity to allow batters to get the ball in the air as much as they are. He’s in the danger zone.
Adrian Sampson has actually been a usable piece of late. The hurler has a 2.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP his last four outings. He’s only allowed a single homer and two walks in the four outings as he’s simply not beating himself. He’s also punched out 23 batters in 22.2 innings. What do I say all the time? Give me strikeouts, no walks and grounders. Sampson has two parts of the triangle built, but that ground ball thing isn’t there. Sampson has a 38 percent ground ball rate leading to a 0.92 GB/FB ratio, and that usually doesn’t play well in Texas, especially when the weather warms.
Luis Severino is throwing from 60 feet. He’s on pace to return from his shoulder situation shortly after the All-Star Break. Note that is his belief. We won’t know for sure for a while.
Ryan Yarbrough allowed seven runs in an outing and was demoted. Upon his return to the bigs, he allowed two runs in two outings. All was right with the world. Last time out, the world turned upside down as the Twins beat him for seven runs over seven innings. Overall, dude has a mere 5.97 K/9 and a 6.23 K/9 over 34.2 frames. Really no reason to have him rostered in a mixed league.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
