Hello folks! I am beyond excited to be writing my first column for Fantasy Guru. If you are wondering who the heck I am, I have been in working in the industry since 2010. Previously, my work could be found on Football Diehards, Yahoo, the DraftKings Playbook, and in multiple other formats. I enjoy combining numbers, analytics, and the eye test, to come up with the best possible conclusion to give you a winning edge.
I’ll be writing a weekly piece covering multiple league formats and my thoughts on the different ways to approach each. This week, I’ll be going over super flex leagues, as these have become a more popular format in recent years. Although this type of format has gained steam recently, I have actually been doing a competitive super flex league for about seven years now, and I have messed around with different draft strategies along the way to figure out what is the most successful one.
Before we move on, it is important to know that one of the first things that anyone playing fantasy sports has to figure out is what type of league they are playing. There are so many different formats, so making sure you understand and know how your league is setup, as well as scoring is set up is extremely important. In fact, this is the foundation of your draft preparation.
Super Flex Setup
Ok so for those who are not aware of how a super flex league is set up, let me explain. Much like most other settings in this format you get a flex slot, but unlike most other leagues, in this flex position you are able to roster a quarterback. Therefore, this type of league essentially plays out like a two-quarterback league as most teams opt to start a quarterback at the super flex slot most weeks. Even though I strongly encourage you to do so, you are not forced to start two quarterbacks, therefore I do not panic on draft day and start selecting quarterbacks too early. The dynamics in this league on draft day are a tad different because one of the challenges one may face is determining how early you should take your signal caller.
At first, drafting a quarterback very early in this format and using another early to mid-round on a second quarterback made a ton of sense, but this led to having major holes at the running back or wide receiver position, and at times in both. This called for some analyzing and adjusting, in no time it became apparent that holding off on drafting a quarterback was a profitable strategy. By not exhausting an early pick on a quarterback and letting others do so, you can load up on running backs and wide outs, which account for at least 55 percent of your roster (excluding kickers and defenses), while still get plenty of production out of the quarterback position. You’d be surprised at how some players drop a round or two later in some instances due to quarterbacks being taken a little earlier than you see in PPR formats.
In a regular PPR format, generally, quarterbacks start going off of the board in the later parts of the third round. Whereas, in two-quarterback leagues, quarterbacks start being drafted as early as the first round.
The chart below is displaying the difference in ADP between the two formats.
| Two-QB | PPR | |
| Rank | ADP (RD) | ADP (RD) |
| 1 | 1.0 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 5.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 5.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 6.0 |
| 6 | 3.0 | 6.1 |
| 7 | 3.1 | 7.0 |
| 8 | 3.1 | 7.1 |
| 9 | 4.0 | 7.1 |
| 10 | 4.1 | 8.1 |
| 11 | 4.1 | 9.0 |
| 12 | 5.1 | 9.1 |
| 13 | 5.1 | 10.0 |
| 14 | 5.1 | 10.1 |
| 15 | 5.1 | 10.1 |
| 16 | 6.0 | 10.1 |
| 17 | 6.1 | 11.1 |
| 18 | 6.1 | 11.1 |
| 19 | 7.0 | 12.1 |
| 20 | 7.0 | 12.1 |
| 21 | 7.1 | 13.0 |
| 22 | 8.0 | 13.1 |
| 23 | 8.0 | 14.0 |
| 24 | 8.1 | 14.1 |
| 25 | 8.1 | 14.1 |
As you can see, there is a big difference in ADP for signal callers between the two leagues. Generally I wait until after the 10th round to take my first quarterback in PPR formats, but in the super flex leagues, I may take one a few rounds earlier. That said, I remain patient at this position and do not invest in it during the earlier rounds. There is a method to my madness of course. The difference in fantasy points per game for some of the quarterbacks in these ranges is not significant.
The chart below shows an average of fantasy points per game from the top 25 quarterbacks (sorted by fantasy points). This should give you a better idea on production expectations.
| 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | ||||
| Rank | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | FPPG | Average | Difference Between A QB and the No. 2 QB | Difference Between QB10 and A QB |
| QB1 | 26.94 | 22.56 | 24.44 | 25.44 | 23.68 | 27.00 | 22.91 | 25.20 | 26.69 | 24.98 | 2.46 | 7.12 |
| QB2 | 22.53 | 19.72 | 22.21 | 22.13 | 22.57 | 23.36 | 22.36 | 26.87 | 20.97 | 22.52 | 0.00 | 4.66 |
| QB3 | 22.06 | 19.12 | 22.16 | 21.94 | 20.84 | 19.63 | 21.77 | 23.86 | 19.06 | 21.16 | -1.36 | 3.30 |
| QB4 | 21.66 | 20.15 | 21.78 | 21.41 | 20.48 | 19.51 | 21.59 | 23.85 | 19.04 | 21.05 | -1.47 | 3.19 |
| QB5 | 21.22 | 18.79 | 19.88 | 20.26 | 20.26 | 18.96 | 22.60 | 22.46 | 18.71 | 20.35 | -2.18 | 2.49 |
| QB6 | 20.39 | 18.35 | 18.68 | 21.28 | 20.01 | 18.86 | 20.25 | 19.03 | 18.41 | 19.47 | -3.05 | 1.61 |
| QB7 | 19.66 | 22.05 | 18.24 | 19.34 | 18.77 | 18.60 | 20.18 | 18.26 | 16.78 | 19.10 | -3.42 | 1.24 |
| QB8 | 20.59 | 17.65 | 18.12 | 19.33 | 18.46 | 18.08 | 19.03 | 18.22 | 16.60 | 18.45 | -4.07 | 0.59 |
| QB9 | 19.28 | 17.48 | 17.88 | 19.21 | 18.29 | 17.77 | 18.75 | 17.66 | 16.46 | 18.09 | -4.44 | 0.23 |
| QB10 | 18.87 | 18.18 | 17.46 | 19.14 | 18.22 | 17.44 | 18.24 | 16.90 | 16.28 | 17.86 | -4.66 | 0.00 |
| QB11 | 18.71 | 16.91 | 18.55 | 18.96 | 17.97 | 17.06 | 18.19 | 19.72 | 15.74 | 17.98 | -4.55 | 0.12 |
| QB12 | 18.42 | 17.89 | 18.44 | 18.59 | 18.75 | 18.10 | 17.18 | 15.44 | 15.53 | 17.59 | -4.93 | -0.27 |
| QB13 | 20.83 | 16.42 | 17.16 | 18.22 | 18.51 | 17.77 | 16.72 | 16.01 | 17.38 | 17.67 | -4.86 | -0.19 |
| QB14 | 18.06 | 15.38 | 17.11 | 18.02 | 17.16 | 16.53 | 15.68 | 15.47 | 15.87 | 16.59 | -5.94 | -1.27 |
| QB15 | 19.50 | 16.33 | 18.03 | 19.71 | 16.88 | 16.47 | 15.62 | 14.16 | 15.79 | 16.94 | -5.58 | -0.92 |
| QB16 | 18.29 | 14.42 | 17.89 | 17.13 | 19.21 | 20.13 | 16.29 | 13.98 | 17.46 | 17.20 | -5.32 | -0.66 |
| QB17 | 15.81 | 15.33 | 18.81 | 17.03 | 16.70 | 15.33 | 15.07 | 13.59 | 18.33 | 16.22 | -6.30 | -1.64 |
| QB18 | 14.92 | 15.17 | 17.53 | 16.12 | 14.71 | 14.35 | 14.83 | 15.11 | 16.84 | 15.51 | -7.02 | -2.35 |
| QB19 | 14.62 | 17.28 | 21.55 | 19.62 | 15.52 | 17.62 | 14.81 | 12.88 | 13.44 | 16.37 | -6.15 | -1.49 |
| QB20 | 14.45 | 17.11 | 15.93 | 16.37 | 13.25 | 13.91 | 14.71 | 12.22 | 13.12 | 14.56 | -7.96 | -3.30 |
| QB21 | 18.51 | 14.76 | 15.51 | 19.03 | 14.75 | 12.58 | 18.09 | 13.56 | 14.58 | 15.71 | -6.81 | -2.15 |
| QB22 | 19.62 | 13.68 | 15.70 | 18.02 | 15.83 | 16.54 | 13.42 | 13.51 | 11.82 | 15.35 | -7.18 | -2.51 |
| QB23 | 19.03 | 14.02 | 15.69 | 15.35 | 15.81 | 16.33 | 13.77 | 13.30 | 12.49 | 15.09 | -7.44 | -2.77 |
| QB24 | 14.78 | 13.98 | 14.25 | 13.31 | 13.22 | 19.49 | 12.49 | 16.61 | 15.55 | 14.85 | -7.67 | -3.01 |
| QB25 | 14.42 | 12.25 | 17.37 | 16.15 | 12.22 | 11.68 | 14.40 | 15.48 | 12.82 | 14.09 | -8.44 | -3.77 |
The approach
As I mentioned to above, I generally wait on taking a quarterback early on, so in most cases the top-end quarterbacks do not land on most of my rosters. Although, there are instances where quarterbacks taken a little later end up being a high-end QB1. For example, Andrew Luck last year. In my super flex league, he was still available in the ninth round. Granted, there was a lot of risk involved in taking him due to the injury history, and to be fair, I was higher on him than most. That said, he was the 12th overall QB taken in this league, so even though ADP for a two-QB league suggest that the 12th quarterback is taken in the fifth round, in a super flex format, it could be a round or a couple of rounds later. Not to mention, each league plays out differently, which is something you have to play close attention to. To be fair, it is worth noting that on average he was the ninth quarterback taken last year based on ADP. Players in my home league starting catching on that it was not at all necessary to overdraft quarterbacks early on, as most teams that were winning our league were waiting a little later than others to take their first quarterback, hence why he was still around this late. Full disclosure my approach in this format changes a bit, as I draft my starting quarterback in super flex leagues earlier than I do in regular PPR leagues, but do not pull the trigger on my second signal caller until later, unless of course there is one I am extremely high on and he is available in a spot I feel good about taking him in, then I just adjust my draft.
This leads me into something you may see or hear me say often, and that is, despite going in with a plan on draft day, you have to adjust during the draft as it goes. Do not, I repeat, do not go into draft day with a set mentality and stick to it without making necessary adjustments, as it could lead to a poor outcome.
When you compare the two-quarterback and super flex leagues, there are some differences since fantasy owners are not forced to start two quarterbacks, although in most instances they do. Due to this, you may see differences in ADP in your super flex league than what the data above suggests. That said, since they are treated very similar, I used the two-quarterback league data as a point of reference for this article. I also used the following scoring settings – passing touchdown = 4 points, passing yards = 0.04 points per yard, interceptions = -1 point, and two-point conversion = 2 points. Lastly, the roster consists of 1- QB, 2- RB, 3- WR, 1- TE, 1- flex (RB, WR, TE), and a super flex (QB, RB, WR, or TE).
It has been fun my peeps! Hope this article is helpful for those in super flex leagues. Make sure to reach out to me on the Twitter machine with any questions @Armando_Marsal, and you can always find me in the chat room on our site. Good luck on draft day, let’s get it!
