Bullpen Usage & Reliever Ratings, or BURR, is an idea that Flowers and Mans have been playing around with since the 2017 season. The reason for their focus is simply that bullpens are a more important part of the modern game than ever before. You know what we mean. Whereas at one time starting pitchers threw 220 innings, then 200… now 180 is the new baseline for upper end hurlers. Starting pitchers just don’t deep into games any more. Plenty of teams are using The Opener, further limiting the innings out of the starting rotation. The facts are obvious to all. Starting pitchers simply do not eat up as many innings as they used to.
Unfortunately, despite that fact, not enough people have taking that into account. That’s not how we’re going to roll at Fantasy Guru in 2019. We are going to continue to be ahead of the curve. Each week we will update our bullpen ratings giving you the best way to attack, or avoid, bullpens while setting your fantasy baseball lineup in the DFS game or in the season long setup.
WHAT IS BURR?
BURR takes into account 14 different categories for bullpens. For more detail on why BURR is needed and what goes into it, click on the link to the Introduction page.
HOW TO READ BURR
Under 1.00 = Any number under the league average is a negative for the bullpen and a positive for the batter. Any number under 1.00 is a bullpen to attack for the offense.
1.00 = The league average
Above 1.00 = Any number above the league average is a positive for the bullpen and a negative for the batter. Any number above 1.00 is a bullpen to avoid for the offense.
THE HIGHER THE NUMBER THE BETTER THE BULLPEN AND THE WORSE IT IS FOR THE BATTER.
THE 2019 SEASON
Here are the baseline numbers to this point of the 2019 season.
|
League |
wOBA |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
ISO |
HR/FB |
GB/FB |
|
2019 |
.318 |
.248 |
.318 |
.425 |
.177 |
14.7 |
1.19 |
THE LAST 14 DAYS
RED: A bullpen to avoid with your batters.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters.
Second, because of the vagaries of homers allowed over a mere two-week span, the two-week review will remove the impact of the home run.
THE LAST 30 DAYS
RED: A bullpen to avoid meaning the bullpen is doing great in that category.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters as the arms are failing in that category.
PURPLE: Any number that is 25 percent or better than the league average (except for homer runs which is discussed next).
We will normally be removing the homer column when looking at two-week segments. They are included here for the sack of thoroughness since the season is still in its infancy. Any number listed in YELLOW is a number that was artificially dropped to 1.50 (meaning, any HR/9 or HR/FB number over 1.50 was knocked back down to 1.50 because a huge number would give them a massive, and inaccurate, BURR total). The homer component of the formula is extremely tricky when looking at small sample sizes.
Look at all the purple in the SWIP column. So many team’s bullpens are showing tons of dominance.
The Indians walk rate is superb, nearly half the league average with a massive 1.95 mark. Wow.
The Red Sox don’t have one purple column, but they still come in fifth. Pretty impressive considering their terrible walk rate. They are compensating by keeping the ball in the yard.
The Astros have been hit hard an awful lot, but overall another stellar 30-day segment.
The Dodgers starting pitchers are on a blazing run of success. As a result, they simply aren’t turning to the bullpen to cover many innings, and that’s likely to be a big boost for the relievers as the weather warms and the games pile up.
The Rays are the opposite, as they are always hurt in the innings category by their Opener strategy. Add about .03 each week for their true value (putting them at 1.04 the last thirty days).
The Tigers continue to be terrible. Ditto the Nationals and Orioles who are seemingly at the bottom each week.
The Cubs have hit hard times. Maybe the return of Pedro Strop will help?
The Braves have issues and they need to make some moves to improve their bullpen.
