I’m a staunch believer in targets and touches being the priority for everything we should be focusing on when forecasting future fantasy production. Volume drives fantasy production. We’ve seen plenty of inefficient players bumble their way to a top fantasy finish due to volume, but it’s rare that efficiency can top volume.
Last year’s prime example of this was Tyler Lockett. Despite Russell Wilson sporting a perfect 158.3 QB Rating when targeting Lockett, the Seattle receiver finished outside the top-12 in fantasy scoring in both PPR and half-PPR settings. He simply didn’t see enough volume.
When we start looking at 2019 projections, it’s important to not just think about volume, but also what kind of role will a player a have in their offense. Nothing provides a bigger swing to a player’s week-to-week fantasy scoring than touchdowns. The six-point bonus that comes from breaking the plane can often be the difference between a winning and losing week.
The problem with touchdown scoring is that they’re often unpredictable. One way we can mitigate this so-called randomness, is by selecting players that often find themselves in positions to succeed — specifically at the running back position. I’m talking about backs that are used in the red zone close to the goal line and have a higher probability of finding their way into the end zone for six points.
Let’s start off with a baseline.
How well do running backs fare in scoring touchdowns from inside the red zone?
I took a look at all 2,171 red zone carries that occurred last year. Intuitively, the closer a rusher was to the end zone, the higher success rate they had converting for six points. That shouldn’t come as a surprise. What’s most shocking is how precipitously the probability of scoring climbed from inside the five-yard line with each additional yard closer to the goal line. Runs from the five-yard line scored at a rate of 22.8% while runs from the one-yard line climbed all the way to 73.3%.
How can this help us in fantasy football?
Fantasy Football Implications
Let’s take a zoomed in look at how backs fared from inside the opponent’s 10-yard line and in. This is where we started to see a spike in touchdown percentage and makes for a good starting point rather than the noise that happens from the 10-20 yards out while running the ball.
The table above includes all running backs that saw at least ten rushing attempts from inside their opponent’s 10-yard line and in. For fantasy purposes, the backs seeing both high volume and high touchdown rates here are the ones we want to prioritize from this table.
Looking back on David Johnson’s career ten years from now, we’ll be wondering how exactly his poor 2018 season came to be. The lone bright spot was that the former coaching staff used Johnson as their workhorse back inside the 10- and 5-yard lines, often to much success. Kliff Kingsbury gives reason for optimism for Johnson heading into 2019 and I don’t blame anyone that has him as a top-five fantasy pick this year.
Joe Mixon was a surprising name here after missing a few games due to injury. Cincinnati relied heavily on Mixon when in this field position, with six of his eight rushing touchdowns coming from inside the five-yard line.
Todd Gurley (36), Alvin Kamara (34), and Saquon Barkley (30) all eclipsed 30 rushing attempts from inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. It’s no surprise that all three finished top-five in fantasy scoring. While Gurley remains a candidate for possible regression if the Rams decide to lighten his load and preserve his health for the season, Kamara and Barkley remain top-five fantasy draft picks on offenses that should continue to feature them.
One noteworthy absence from the volume group was Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott’s 22 carries inside the 10-yard line weren’t terrible, but it’s certainly noteworthy how often Dak Prescott called his own number when deep in enemy territory. Prescott had 13 carries inside the 10-yard line and nine from inside the five-yard line. Zeke barely edged him out in the latter category (11), but it was Prescott who scored more from inside the five than Zeke (four to two).
Another back that fought through injury last season was Melvin Gordon. Despite limited volume deep in the red zone, he found success with high touchdown rates from inside both the 10-yard line (50%) and five-yard line (80%), respectively. Only Kamara (0.53) had more fantasy points per snap than Gordon last year (0.52). Gordon should once again be a heavily featured back in 2019.
Alternatively, there were also names that stood as potential fades heading into 2019.
The back that stood out the most to me was Tevin Coleman and his poor success rate running in this short yardage situations. He scored one touchdown from inside the 10-yard line (10 attempts) and zero from within the five-yard line. The Falcons offense was one that finished top-10 in scoring last year. Coleman’s departure likely won’t make them miss a beat in 2019.
Sony Michel’s rookie campaign wasn’t a poor one with him finishing as the RB28 in half-PPR leagues. One area he could stand to improve is his rushing in the red zone. Michel saw 27 carries from inside the 10-yard line (sixth-most), but 13 different running backs outscored him from there. The Patriots now bring in third-round rookie, Damien Harris to compete for touches. Michel’s current ADP as RB21 is right about at his ceiling of what I’d be willing to pay with so many backs now in New England.
Houston’s Lamar Miller was another back that had mediocre red zone production eclipsed by his quarterback. Deshaun Watson had nine of his team’s 20 carries from inside the five-yard line. Watson wasn’t afraid to call his own number often despite running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Miller provided decent touchdown rates, but he’ll always have Watson there capable of stealing the touchdowns for himself.
Touchdown rates will vary year-to-year, but it’s still important to review which players are seeing heavy usage in these red zone roles. Backs that we can project for heavy volume and see a significant percentage of their team’s carries inside the red zone should be our targets when drafting our teams.
