Chirinos provides enough to be of mixed league consideration. Davies is surging, but should you care? German has a couple of rough outings. Is the dream dead? Heaney has been sharp in two outings with the Angels. Kershaw generating outs at a strong level. Lynn better than you think? Matz is an ongoing up/down option. Plesac making waves as a starter while Porcello tries to level out his ship. Stroman/Teheran/Samardzija, all righties, all hoping to continue decent starts to the season, though there are concerns.
Yonny Chirinos has made six starts out of his 12 appearances for the Rays. He has a 3.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with a 4.42 K/BB ratio. All of that is stellar. That said, we’re not getting a lot of length here. Over his last five outings he’s thrown a high of 5.1 innings, and overall, he’s averaged 4.53 innings an outing. If you’re willing to play the game of striving for victories with Rays “starting pitchers” I get it. Moreover, Chirinos is effective enough to be rostered if you’re just looking for some solid ratios. That said, he doesn’t dominate with the punchouts, 7.23 per nine this season with a 10.6 swinging strike rate, so he’s a backend mixed league asset.
Zach Davies is getting harder to ignore. That’s what you say when someone is 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA. Through 12 starts, Davies has allowed more than three runs just a single time, and that’s damn impressive. He’s also has a mere 5.81 K/9 rate which is horrible. After posting a GB/FB of 1.84 in 2017, the mark dropped to 1.57 last season and it’s even worse this season at 1.23. The more he trends toward the league average there, the more concerns grow. Realize that Davies has never allowed more fly balls than he has right now (34.6 percent). That’s basically a league average number, but it’s five percent above his career mark. So why haven’t the homers exploded? I’m just gonna say it; he’s been darn lucky. Each of the last three seasons the HR/FB ratio has been between 12.0 and 13.1 percent. This season it’s sitting at a mere 8.2 percent. The rate will go up. It’s one of the reasons that his xFIP is sitting at 4.81. Oh yeah, his SIERA is also 5.07. To but a bow on it. On the surface Davies looks great. Digging deeper, his performance has never been worse (career low GB/FB, career worst in SIERA and xFIP, career worst K-rate). Get out while you still can, meaning, if you own him, sell, sell, sell.
Domingo German’s last two outings cover 8.2 extremely ineffective innings. Against the Royals and Red Sox, German has 14 punchouts, a tremendous number. He’s also allowed five homers and 10 runs. As I’ve noted previously, there are legitimate concerns with German’s ROTW outlook (that’s Rest Of The Way). The innings concern is legit. This man has precious little frames on his arm in any season. The 150-innings limit has been tossed out there as a top end for German, and there’s the concern about performance as the innings pile up. Is this two-start situation a precursor to the expected down turn in his performance? Is it merely two starts? If I owned German, and I don’t anywhere, I would be listening closely if there are any offers on the table.
THE RANKINGS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
Andrew Heaney has made two starts since returning from injury. He’s allowed a whopping four homers, but otherwise he’s been damn sharp over the 11 innings allowing just seven hits and one walk while punching out 18 batters. The guy is skilled, and I wrote about that in his Player Profile. “There are skills to envy, some concerns and health to factor in with Heaney. If he was 23 instead of 27 years of age, I would hold out a little more hope for him. If he wasn’t so flat out bad at keeping the ball in the yard against righties, I would hold out a little more hope for him (until he develops an ability to keep the ball out of the seats, it’s hard to view him as a legit option to post an ERA much below 3.75, given that he pitches in the American League). If he had more consistently been on the diamond a bit more, I would hold out a little more hope for him. All told this is a nice skillset, if he can stay on the field long enough for it to matter.”
Clayton Kershaw update; he’s made nine starts and only once has he allowed four runs leaving him with a 3.20 ERA on the year. He hasn’t been great, but that ERA is pretty reflective of how things are going (3.50 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 3.53 SIERA). He’s rocking a 1.89 GB/FB ratio, which would actually be a career best. He’s been unfortunate with the 17.4 percent HF/FB ratio, more than double his career rate. That number will regress. The K/9 rate of 8.39 is nearly a batter and a half below his career mark, but he’s not walking anyone and that 6.11 K/BB ratio is pretty damn stellar (career 4.28). He’s rocking that 1.05 WHIP as a result of keeping the free passes down. Over his last 35 starts, back to the beginning of last season, he’s not been vintage Kershaw, but he’s been damn good: 14-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 210 Ks in 220.1 innings. So much for the demise talk.
Is there finally evidence of the Loch Ness Monster’s existence?
Lance Lynn might just be better than you think. He’s up to seven victories and 77 punchouts in 74 innings pitched. Moreover, Lynn has thrown 5-straight quality starts during which time he owns a 2.97 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with an impressive 11.07 K/9 rate. When locked in, as he is now, he’s a solid source of punchouts and innings, though of course those ratios aren’t who he is or will be.
Steve Matz is that guy… you buy in… and you seemingly always get burned. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in 3-of-4 starts. However, some concerns. He’s allowed three homers in two outings and that 1.91 HR/9 rate this season is potential absurd. Yes, he has the worst HR/FB ratio of his career at 20.3 percent, but the mark has been 17 percent the last two years so things are really that far off this season. Next, his exit velocity number is a career worst at 88.9 mph, and above the 87.4 league average. Next, his 41.2 percent hard-hit rate is a career worst and above the league average by a good deal (34.3). Matz is also getting blistered by lefties with a .398 wOBA, and the mark is .366 on the road where he hasn’t been very good either. I’m still avoiding counting on him in any format.
An ongoing mystery.
Zach Plesac has looked sharp over two outings allowing eight hits, two walks and two runs over 12.1 innings. With each outing, his leash grows. His last effort including pitching around a more than one-hour long rain delay. He’s been sitting at 94 mph with the heater, and throwing sliders, changeups and curves as well. As long as he continues to get out, he’s likely to stick in the rotation. Plesac has a smooth, repeatable delivery, but he’s more about the fastball than the secondary stuff at this point, and as teams get a look at him there could be issues with the secondary stuff. As a result, he’s not likely to be a big strikeout arm. He’s the Indians version of Mike Leake.
Rick Porcello just can’t seem to find it. He allowed six runs over three outings but last time out it was five runs over 4.2 frames against the Yankees. That’s 12 starts with a depressing 4.76 ERA and 1.40 WIHP. If you’re still starting him, make sure it’s at home (.277 wOBA) and not on the road (.386 wOBA).
Jeff Samardzija has allowed one or zero earned runs in 2-of-3 outings. However, he’s allowed a total of 12 runs in those three outings (six earned). Over his last six outings he’s the owner of eight homers allowed, and that level of big fly bashing makes him a pitcher that is hard to trust at the moment.
Not a great use of Girl Scout cookies.
Marcus Stroman continues to get outs. His last four starts he’s thrown a total of 24 innings with a 2.25 ERA. He has allowed only two homers, but the 14 punchouts in 24 innings isn’t what anyone is looking for. He can get by with numbers like that, given his often-voluminous ground ball rate, but it would be great if the K-rate went up (6.99). Given his history, and current 9.8 swinging strike rate, it isn’t likely to. He is what he is.
Julio Teheran has dropped his ERA down to 3.28 as he’s allowed a total of three earned runs his last six outings. It’s not all good though as he’s continued to play with fire as he’s walked 14 batters his last four outings leading to a whopping 6.10 BB/9 rate. He simply has to throw more strikes as he’s living off an artificially low BABIP of .246 (the mark was absurdly low last season at .217).
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
