The NFL is built upon what college football provides. Every year, there’s a focus on incoming rookies and players who are going to make impacts for their new teams, but where did those players come from? What did they look like as underclassmen in college? How productive were they? The goal of this article is to help provide analysis that will improve readers ability to identify NFL players who are still in college. Each week, there will be four players evaluated and given an NFL projected draft position based on their current historical indicators.
There are many tidbits and clues the NFL leaves behind pertaining to what they’re looking for in an NFL Draft prospect. The basic strength, speed and athleticism are factors in building a skill position player, but it’s clear there’s more to it than that. When reviewing the NFL Draft over the last two decades, there’s statistical trends and traits NFL teams look for before selecting players as well. This article, which highlights players not yet draft eligible, will highlight those factors.
THE PROSPECTS
Justin Herbert (QB, Oregon)
The journey for Herbert has been a weird one. Not only was he a top-end projected QB heading into the 2018 season, but he was also projected to be THE QB in the 2019 class. Herbert had a strange junior season, struggling in some big games, making evaluators weary of his skills. Then, rumors started spreading he wasn’t a sure thing to declare. Then, he didn’t. It was somewhat shocking, considering he was pretty locked into the round one conversation regardless of evaluators noticing some issues, but his choice was his choice. Herbert finished 2018 with 3,151 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. This was very good, but his 7.8 yards per attempt describes why some were having issues with his resume. Herbert dropped 1.8 yards per attempt from 2017 to 2018 (9.6 in 2017), and it was noticeable watching the games. There were a lot of dump off and close to the line of scrimmage passes in the Oregon offense, and it certainly didn’t help Herbert from a perception standpoint.
One important thing to note, and something worth keeping close eyes on for 2019, is the supporting cast. It was apparent very early in the 2018 season that Herbert had very limited weapons to throw to beyond Dillon Mitchell. With Mitchell graduating, WRs and TEs need to step up if Herbert is going to regain the hype he once enjoyed. TE Jacob Breeland and WR Jaylon Redd are interesting names who could take on bigger roles, but a big change is likely going to have to come from the outside WRs for things to change significantly. If nobody emerges, Herbert could see regression on even his 2018 numbers, considering the loss of Mitchell.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Round One – At the end of the day, there’s a very intriguing skill set from a prospect perspective, and the control over the offense Herbert displayed in 2018 should be enough to project him, at the very least, as a round one prospect. While Herbert may not see the top five selections, his draft position floor is incredibly high.
Similar Prospect(s): Matt Ryan
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama)
It’s tough to start out a college career as a QB better than Tagovailoa. Not only did Tagovailoa make his first true mark on college football in the 2017 National Championship game (leading a huge comeback that eventually resulted in an Alabama victory), but he followed that up by being arguably the best QB in CFB in 2018. 43 passing touchdowns, six interceptions and 3,966 passing yards on only 355 passing attempts is incredibly special stuff. Tagovailoa averaged 11.2 yards per attempt and completed 69 percent of his passing attempts. The starters rarely played beyond the 3rd quarter in most of their games in 2018, so in theory, these numbers could’ve been much higher if Nick Saban didn’t show mercy. While there might be some slight height concerns (listed at 6 foot 1), Kyler Murray plowed through the idea short QBs can’t be drafted high, going first overall in the 2019 NFL draft, and Tagovailoa has at least three inches (at least) on him.
Tagovailoa has the best set of receiving weapons in college football, and it’s tough to even argue. Between Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, Henry Ruggs III and Devonta Smith, there are four top-end NFL prospects who would all command a featured weapon role on almost all other Division I college football teams. This, along with a stellar defense and solid offensive line, should create a situation where Tagovailoa can put up a similar season to 2018. That appears crazy to say, but on a weekly basis, the efficiency should continue, considering how much they out-talent every college team (except Clemson).
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Top 5 – Tagovailoa may have some naysayers, and his issues with injuries could be a narrative that gets thrown around a lot, but from a college production, athletic testing and overall pedigree standpoint, this is an undeniable QB prospect.
Similar Prospect(s): Marcus Mariota, Robert Griffin
Henry Ruggs III (WR, Alabama)
Speaking of Alabama skill position players, let’s talk about Ruggs. Listed at 6 feet and 183 pounds, Ruggs is certainly a speed-based weapon, but his all-around attention to detail is certainly worth getting excited about. In his Sophomore season, Ruggs put together a 46 reception and 741 receiving yard 2018. He also added 11 touchdowns, some in spectacular fashion. Ruggs uses potentially special ball skills to create a much bigger catch radius than his frame would suggest. Ruggs was deployed all over the field in 2018. Between the slot, outside and on end-arounds, Ruggs did it all, well, showing an incredibly versatile skill set.
Ruggs didn’t contribute on special teams as a Sophomore, but he showed great promise and special agility as a Freshman on his 21 total return attempts (13 kick, 8 punt). Ruggs was also recently clocked (unofficially) a 4.25 40-yard dash. It’s tough to know how accurate that number is, but even if he runs in the 4.3’s at the combine, that will be a very positive draft position indicator. Ruggs will continue to thrive in the Alabama offense. The aforementioned Tagovailoa returns for the 2019 season, and with the embarrassment of riches surrounding Ruggs, like Jerry Jeudy and Devonta Smith, there should consistently be one-on-one matchups to feast on.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Round One – The 4.25 40-yard dash, if true, will lock Ruggs into the round one conversation. Ruggs already has a ton going for him from a film perspective, so adding an elite athletic profile would quickly push him into a potentially special prospect range.
Similar Prospect(s): John Ross, Brandin Cooks
McLane Mannix (WR, Texas Tech)
One of the more intriguing storylines of the offseason is Mannix transferring from Nevada to Texas Tech. Mannix just finished off a great 2018 season, then, out of seemingly nowhere, Mannix announced he was transferring up to Big 12 passing heaven in Texas Tech. Mannix accumulated 107 receptions (57 in 2017, 50 in 2018), 1,653 receiving yards (778 in 2017, 875 in 2018) and 13 receiving touchdowns (6 in 2017, 7 in 2018) in his two seasons at Nevada. He was the clear featured weapon in the offense, and while Nevada is far from a powerhouse, it’s surprising to see them lose their star.
The good news for Mannix is Texas Tech had its two leading receivers in 2018 graduate. Antoine Wesley and Ja-Deion High leave 2,214 receiving yards behind, and really only T.J. Vasher is set to take on a significantly bigger role. Mannix would be a natural fit in the slot, considering his natural speed and quickness, but it’s also worth noting he was very solid on deep routes in the previous two seasons as well. Mannix is a small (listed at 5 foot 9), but sturdy (listed at 185 pounds) WR, and could absolutely explode production-wise in 2019.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Round Three or Four – Mannix has NFL speed, and if he can perfect the nuances of a slot WR in his final seasons at Texas Tech, there will be a lot of teams interested in his skill set.
Similar Prospect(s): Vincent Brown, Deon Butler
