After doing enough bestball drafts, you learn to get a sense of where players are going and which direction their ADP is trending. Exploiting value is the name of the game here. For example, we’ve been hearing all offseason that Todd Gurley may be entering the 2019 season with some leftover health concerns. That shouldn’t be news to anyone, yet we’ve seen Darrell Henderson’s ADP start to skyrocket over the past few weeks where nothing new has come to light. Henderson has now started going as early as Round 5(!) where just a few weeks ago he was a 10th Round selection. Early drafters are likely very content with their early exposure while now you are forced to pay up handsomely in order to draft him.
These “target” players listed below are players that we either love at their current cost or love their current situation to make them priorities in our bestball drafts. While it’s important to not reach for a specific player, sometimes it comes down to tier breaks and our arguments are laid out before you. Adversely, our “fades” are players that we’re not interested in drafting at current ADP and recommend having light exposure if mass multi-entering bestball drafts.
Players to Target
Cam Newton, QB (Buecher)
Over the past three seasons, only Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan have had more 25-plus fantasy point outings than Cam Newton. Newton’s rushing ability — 500-plus rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns during each season in this time frame — has provided nearly a full passing touchdown’s worth of fantasy points (4.0 FPs) right off the bat (3.52 FPs). Carolina’s front office has done a great job surrounding him with speedsters at every position with Christian McCaffrey (4.48), D.J. Moore (4.42), Curtis Samuel (4.31), while failing to address the backend of the defense. That should lead to another year where wins will be dictated by how well the offense performs, specifically Newton.
Kyler Murray, QB (Canevari)
I love Kyler Murray in 2019. In fact, as I write this, I just steeply overpaid for him in a dynasty league by my own volition. Currently going in the 11th round of bestball drafts, Murray harnesses that league winning upside that drafters dream of having. He had a massively productive college career rushing for 1,001 yards and 12 touchdowns in his final year. He has been paired with a coach who’s scheme he’s going to fit like a glove. He’s also been outfitted with co-stars like David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and newly acquired Andy Isabella. Being able to get it done on the ground and through the air is huge for a quarterback’s value and provides the gargantuan ceiling this format requires. I’ll be grabbing Murray here every time.
Latavius Murray, RB (Buecher)
One of my favorite bestball targets this year is getting a discount on New Orleans’ RB2, Latavius Murray. Murray inherits the valuable Mark Ingram role, one that has seen Ingram finish as the fantasy RB6 in 2017 and as the RB32 in 2018 (four games missed). During this span, Ingram trailed only Todd Gurley in opportunities inside the opponent’s five-yard line. They now get an even more effective short-yardage touchdown scorer than Ingram (40.0%) with Murray (47.1%) coming to town. With the Saints goal to keep Alvin Kamara’s touches limited for a deep postseason run, Murray stands to see significant snaps on a weekly basis while being heavily implemented deep inside the red zone. If Kamara were to miss any time, Murray could easily see himself getting the lion’s share of touches in one of the league’s most potent offenses.
Damien Williams, RB (Canevari)
Kansas City has made it clear that Damien Williams will be “the guy” in 2019. This week, the Chief’s offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy stated “Damien Williams is our starter. We expect him to excel in that role.” And why wouldn’t they? Last year after Kareem Hunt was released by the team in November, Williams went on to become the RB5 in PPR scoring. He amassed six total touchdowns during that time frame (sixth highest). While the Chiefs may not be as wildly efficient as they were last year, there’s no doubt that the offense will remain an offensive juggernaut. It’s Williams backfield to lose, and honestly, there isn’t much competition sitting on the depth chart. With a current ADP in the second round, I love the pick at current cost.
Will Fuller, WR (Buecher)
The explosive play of Fuller cannot be overstated enough, making him an ideal bestball candidate. In the 11 games he’s played with Deshaun Watson, he’s averaged 17.3 PPR points. All other quarterbacks? Just 7.6. Fuller has accrued double-digit fantasy outings in 14-of-31 career games. He’s gone for 20-plus in 7-of-14. Health is the main concern — for both Fuller and Watson — but if the two can stay upright, we could see a potential top-24 fantasy season out of Fuller. Watson has a trio of receivers capable of attacking all quadrants of the field in DeAndre Hopkins, Keke Coutee, and Fuller. A leaky secondary should keep their opponents close in games, leading to a potentially heavy passing attack for Houston in 2019.
Geronimo Allison, WR (Canevari)
Green Bay struggled heavily in 2018, due partly to an injured Aaron Rodgers, and partly due to their inability to efficiently transition into life after Jordy Nelson. The Packers receiving core is anything but a solved puzzle at this point in the offseason, but with Randall Cobb no longer a factor, Allison is my favorite of the available options. Allison had a promising start to the 2018 season but only started four games before tearing his abductor muscle. However, in those four games, he amassed a whopping 30 targets for 303 yards and two touchdowns. If you extrapolate that over a 16-game season, even with a little yardage regression (as 64 of those yards came on one play) you’ve got yourself a way more than serviceable WR2. Under a new coaching regime and playing with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the sky is the limit for Allison who is currently going in the 11th round of drafts.
Travis Kelce, TE (Buecher)
With an ADP of 13.1 (as of June 1st), there’s no discount available this year on the one they call, “Zeus”. However, given the projected volume for Kelce in this pass-happy offense led by Patrick Mahomes, he’s absolutely worth it. Between Tyreek Hill being indefinitely suspended, Sammy Watkins’ lengthy injury history, and Mecole Hardman’s inexperience (just two years playing the wide receiver position in college), the target totem pole has more questions than answers. Kelce led the Chiefs in both targets (150) and receptions (103) last season, while sporting nine weeks with at least 15-plus fantasy points. The Chiefs’ 2018 offense was historically the most efficient offense we’ve ever seen. Sign me up for the top receiving candidate on that squad.
Evan Engram, TE (Canevari)
Engram had a widely productive rookie campaign, finishing the year with 64 catches for 722 yards with six touchdowns. These numbers were good enough to land him at TE5 for the 2017 year. Unfortunately, 2018 was not as kind to Engram, as he saw less than half the targets he did the year prior and half the touchdowns. What was the difference? Well it certainly had something to do with the return of a healthy Odell Beckham (only four games played in 2017), and 2018 yielded Engram being bit with the injury bug himself. Beckham is now off to more dangerous pastures, leaving Sterling Shepard and newly acquired Golden Tate as the primary receiving options for the Giants. Engram will have an offseason of recovery under his belt, and those targets from Beckham will not solely be funneled to Shepard and Tate. This is a bounce back year for Engram and you’re definitely getting an ADP discount in the sixth round.
Players to Fade
Patrick Mahomes, QB (Canevari)
The fade here is really more correlated to Mahomes’ ADP than it is that I hate Mahomes. He was QB1 by a mile last year, throwing for 50 touchdowns, and getting it done for you on a weekly basis. No one is questioning his talent or ability to produce fantastic fantasy numbers. What I am questioning is history’s ability to repeat itself. I’m sure you’ve heard that regression is coming for Mahomes. You may have also heard the likelihood of him being without Tyreek Hill this year is pretty high. You may have also heard that none of those things matter. Whatever you believe, those are some pretty bid red flags for a fourth-round pick. I’m all about late round QB in every format (sans superflex), and you won’t catch me passing up a skill position to grab a quarterback in Round 4.
Tom Brady, QB (Buecher)
Defying father time, Brady showed last year during his Super Bowl run that he’s still got plenty left in the tank to win games. Does that make him a fantasy target of ours? No, not at this stage of his career. Brady posted just four top-12 fantasy weeks last season and is a near-zero in the run game outside of the rare 4th-and-Inches conversion. The retirement of Rob Gronkowski doesn’t help things either, as Brady has averaged nearly 4.0 fantasy points fewer — a passing touchdown’s equivalent — in games without Gronk dating back to 2010. If looking for a later quarterback to grab, pivot off Brady and instead target a quarterback with upside in either Josh Allen or Dak Prescott.
Derrick Henry, RB (Canevari)
There are many question marks surrounding how this Tennessee offense will shake out in 2019. They’ve got a plethora of offensive weapons and have been pretty clear about wanting to ground and pound. The big question is… will they be able to? Will the Titan’s offense graduate to a place where they no longer need to play catch up? Will Marcus Mariota play 16 games? Will the offense be better? I don’t know that anyone knows the answers to these questions this early in the offseason, but I do know they’re not paying Dion Lewis $5 million a year to be an expensive insurance policy. Despite all of these question marks, Henry has amounted to being the 16th running back off the board at current ADP. In the third round, that’s more than reaching to select a gamescript-dependent back on a questionable offense.
Jordan Howard, RB (Buecher)
As a Philadelphia native, I am astounded at how many people have come up to me with excitement regarding the addition of Jordan Howard to the Eagles offense for fantasy. Howard, a two-down grinder, will be vying for touches with electric rookie Miles Sanders and the rest of this backfield committee put together by the Philadelphia front office. Sanders should elevate to the top of the depth chart quickly as the lead back in terms of touches and snaps, relegating Howard to red zone and short-conversion work. For those experiencing déjà vu, the Eagles had this exact scenario play out two years ago with Jay Ajayi being the primary ball carrier and LeGarrette Blount having the Howard role. Blount went on to have a fantasy finish of RB44, without posting a single top-12 fantasy week. Howard is a current fade at Round 8 ADP.
Robby Anderson, WR (Canevari)
Robby Anderson was a best ball darling in 2018 and embodied the boom or bust receiver profile that bestball aficionados preach heavily about. So what gives? Too much has changed in New York for me to have any confidence that Anderson will pay back his sixth round ADP. Quincy Enunwa will be coming back healthy. Jamison Crowder has come over from Washington. Tight end Chris Herndon has another year under his belt, and most notably, the Jets now have Le’Veon Bell to deploy. The Jets have a new coaching regime and have made every effort to outfit the offense with upgraded weaponry. The Jets should be better, and it’s going to be a crowded target share. I don’t know how this offense is going to shake out, or if Sam Darnold will take that step forward, but I do know that last year’s numbers are baked into Anderson’s current ADP and you’ve got much better options in Round 6.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR (Buecher)
Entering his age-32 season, Sanders is a player should be approached with trepidation this year. Coming off a torn Achilles’ injury from late last season, Sanders is still working his way through rehabilitation. The history of athletes returning to peak physical performance following a torn Achilles is rare. It’s likely even less probable with an athlete on the wrong side of 30. This is simply a bet on probability, and the likelihood of Sanders returning to 100 percent is something I’ll be betting against in 2019. Draft DaeSean Hamilton at a two-round discount instead.
T.J. Hockenson, TE (Canevari)
Rookie fever is in the air. If you haven’t heard, the Lions drafted Hockenson at #8 overall to be the success that Eric Ebron never was. (Of course, we all know Ebron saw massive success last year in Indianapolis, so I don’t know how much is really to blame on the player and not the offensive scheme of Detroit.) Here’s the thing, it’s widely known that the tight end position takes longer to develop in the NFL, and the odds that a rookie is going to see fantasy value are slim, very slim. How slim? Since 2000, only 27 rookie right ends have reached the 500-yard threshold. Most recently, Evan Engram, who some forget had a push into success by injuries to Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard. If you think Hockenson is good enough to be a statistical outlier, then draft away. I’d be much happier waiting a few rounds and grabbing the tremendous ceiling of Jordan Reed, or punting completely with a second year tight end like Mike Gesicki.
Eric Ebron, TE (Buecher)
After a breakout year in 2018 (66-750-13), Ebron truthers were rewarded with his best performance of the year as the fantasy TE4. Unfortunately for Ebron, he remains a massive regression candidate given the whopping 13 touchdowns thrown his way. He saw both elevated snaps and red zone looks when Jack Doyle was sidelined, a huge contributing factor to his 2018 success. In the six games with Doyle, Ebron played on just 41.6 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, surpassing the 50 percent mark just once. That number climbed to 64.8% during Doyle’s absence. Ebron’s red zone looks also climbed 50 percent with Doyle sidelined and his targets per game doubled. Early June ADP (68.6) has him going in the same range as Hunter Henry (63.4), Evan Engram (63.9), and O.J. Howard (65.4). Draft one of the other three instead and let Ebron’s inevitable regression fall onto someone else’s roster.
